The English Premier League season is drawing to a close, and a cruel fate awaits at least half of the 14 American players in the league. Each season, the league’s three worst teams are demoted to the second division (somewhat unconvincingly named “the Championship”), and this year’s bottom-dwellers, Derby, Fulham, Birmingham, Bolton and Reading, include 10 Americans in their squads who could be banished to the lower league, along with their underperforming teams. The loss of more than half of the American contingent in what is arguably the world’s best soccer league might appear to be a major blow to the development and psyche of American soccer. A new wave of rising American stars set to join the league next year, though, reflects the steady improvement in this country’s soccer talent.

American soccer has had many milestones — and just as many setbacks — over the past 20 years. Major international tournaments, primarily the World Cup, have provided unreliable barometers of the quality of American soccer. The American team’s quarterfinal finish in the 2002 World Cup led to a top-10 world ranking (they currently are ranked 21st in the world) and talk of an inevitable world championship. Such expectations were knocked down when the American team was eliminated at the group stage in the 2006 World Cup in Germany. This continued their tepid performance in World Cups in Europe (Italy in 1990, France in 1998, and Germany in 2006, in which the national team failed to win a game).

A less volatile measure of the progress of American soccer is the steady increase in the number of American players competing for European club teams. For the last few years, England has had the most American players of any European country, which makes it a good place to look for hints of American talent’s prospects. With 14 players in the Premier League this year, American representation had reached an all-time high. Furthermore, the Premier League is long on hype, glamour, and money, meaning the games and players receive maximum exposure.

But the relegation of Derby and Fulham, and the potential relegation of either Reading or Bolton would leave at most seven American players (and as few as five) in the Premier League. The remaining players include two goalkeepers (Tim Howard and Brad Friedel), a reserve defender (Jonathon Spector) and one young player who has not seen the field in a league game this season (Eric Lichaj). Only the goalkeepers play regularly. If the season ended today, Americans Marcus Hahnemann and Bobby Convey of Reading, and Johann Smith of Bolton would also remain in the Premier League. But their safety is not assured.

Of the seven Americans set to be relegated (Eddie Lewis and Benny Feilhaber of Derby; Brian McBride, Carlos Bocanegra, Eddie Johnson, Kasey Keller, and Clint Dempsey of Fulham), none had stellar seasons. Feilhaber, Dempsey, and Johnson looked overmatched in their first full seasons in England, and Lewis, 33, and Keller, 38, are well past their primes. McBride, Fulham’s captain, has missed 7 months of the season with a dislocated kneecap, and his return the past few weeks has probably come too late to alter Fulham’s fate.

Despite this enforced exodus, America’s representation in the Premier League will probably not be down for long. Next season looks likely to include a fresh infusion of talented Americans. Brad Guzan, a young goalkeeper playing in Major League Soccer, has been rumored in moves to Aston Villa, Arsenal, or other clubs. Jozy Altidore, the New York Red Bulls’ sensational 18-year-old striker, has been strongly linked with several of the top English clubs, including Chelsea and Manchester United. His likely transfer to Europe this summer could shatter the previous record transfer fee for an MLS player, set when the New England Revolution sold Dempsey to Fulham for $4 million last January.

Besides Guzan and Altidore, the other American most likely to make his Premier League debut next season is Michael Bradley, son of the American national team coach Bob Bradley, and a rising star in the Dutch league. Those three transfers by themselves would bring the American total in England back up to at least eight (depending on results in the last two games of the season) — still well short of this year’s 14.

Still, there are plenty of other talented Americans who could find their way to England’s Premier League next season. Defenders Jay DeMerit (Watford) and Corey Gibbs (Charlton) both played in the Premier League last year, but they were relegated, along with their clubs, to the Championship. Watford and DeMerit are in line for a return to the top flight, and Gibbs has enough talent to be a transfer target for a Premier League club next year. DaMarcus Beasley, currently playing for Scotland’s top club, Rangers, is also a likely target for a Premier League team, as are the seven relegated players from this year. McBride has proven himself, and Dempsey, Bocanegra, Johnson, and Feilhaber may have shown enough this year to earn second chances in the Premier League.

Next year’s English Premier League season will likely see exciting young American prospects such as Altidore, Bradley, and Guzan representing the bright future of the American national team. All this young American talent — and the name Freddy Adu hasn’t even come up — is certainly a great sign for American soccer.

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