They call him “King Felix.”

Rookie right-hander Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners, 19, has cut a wide swath through the minors and utterly dominated in his first three major league starts. In most circles, you’ll hear him called the most promising and ballyhooed pitching prospect since Dwight Gooden, who won the Rookie of the Year with the Mets after tearing through the National League in 1984. This, of course, raises certain questions: Are the comparisons apt? Do the invocations of Gooden’s name accurately reflect Hernandez’s promise, oversell it, or give short shrift to his long-term potential?

The similarities are undeniable. Both are 6-foot-3 right-handers who make/made hay with a blazing fastball and power curve (Tim McCarver referred to Gooden’s bender as “Lord Charles,” while Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has already called Hernandez’s breaking ball “the curve from hell”). Both also made their major league debuts at the improbably young age of 19. As for statistical comparisons, it’s far too early in Hernandez’s career to draw any lasting conclusions answers, but we can draw some initial judgments based on his performance to date.

Hernandez made his major league debut at the age of 19 years, three months, and 26 days (the youngest pitcher to make a major league start since Jose Rijo in 1984), while Gooden logged his first big-league start at the age of 19 years, four months and 21 days – roughly the same age. Here’s how their minor league numbers break down.

First, the above numbers don’t include the 86.2 minor league innings that Gooden logged in the latter, nondevelopmental stages of his career, when he was either rehabbing from injury or, in his later years, attempting to fight his way back to the majors. Since those numbers really don’t shed any light on his early promise, they’ve been excluded.

As you can see, Gooden was better in all respects, save for control (as evinced by Hernandez’s superior strikeout-to-walk ratio). Still, numbers-to-numbers comparisons between the two hurlers, at least under the minor league rubric, aren’t so simple.

Gooden made the leap from the High-A Carolina League, where he logged 191 innings in 1983,directly to the majors, skipping two levels in the process. Hernandez, meanwhile, pitched at every level en route to Seattle. So one could argue that despite his slightly younger age, Hernandez is better-prepared than was Gooden to face competition at the highest level.

Hernandez also pitched in much more hostile circuits than did Gooden. To wit, the Northwest, California, and Pacific Coast Leagues, where Hernandez pitched more than 75% of his minor league innings, are notable hitter’s circuits, mostly because of the elevation and climates found in those Western environs. Gooden, in contrast, spent most of his time in leagues that favored the pitcher. All things considered – i.e., raw statistics, age, and context – Gooden has a slightly more impressive minor league dossier than Hernandez.

As for their major league performances, the boundaries of our comparison are strict indeed: only three starts. Serious sample-size caveats apply, but it’s still worth exploring the numbers. Gooden’s initial three starts for the Mets yielded the following stat line: 13.1 innings, 4.72 ERA, 15 hits, 16 strikeouts, nine walks, zero home runs. And here are Hernandez’s bestowals over that same span: 21.0 innings, 0.86 ERA, 11 hits, 21 strikeouts, three walks, zero home runs. No comparison there, but let’s delve a bit more deeply.

Hernandez is lauded for his groundball tendencies, which, in tandem with high strikeout rates, often portend greatness in young pitchers. Over Hernandez’s first three starts, he recorded 36 ground-ball outs against only 10 fly-ball outs. Gooden, meanwhile, logged 14 groundouts and 10 fly-outs over the same span. Both pitchers kept the ball in park during those early starts, but Gooden gave up a double in his second outing, while Hernandez hasn’t even come close to giving up an extrabase hit. Hernandez’s changeup is also a far more refined offering than Gooden’s was at a similar juncture.

To mix the bag even more, Hernandez pitches in a more offensive era than Gooden did, but Gooden pitched his first three starts in slightly tougher pitcher’s parks than Hernandez. Overall, taking into account minor league record of performance and early major league performance, Hernandez appears to have future potential somewhere a little south of Gooden’s at the same stage, mostly because of the latter’s staggering minor league strikeout numbers. In Hernandez’s case, it’s worth re-emphasizing how hazardous it is to draw any firm conclusions from three major league starts. However, if he maintains something close to this level of performance for the rest of the season, he’ll pass Gooden in terms of promise.

As for the future, it’s mostly guesswork; however, Hernandez does have a couple of factors in his favor. First, we’re in an era in which organizations are more prudent in terms of their young pitchers’ workloads. The Mariners, for the early years of Hernandez’s professional career, forbade him from throwing his already legendary slider for fear of injury, and he’s been on strict pitching counts since the day he was signed.

Second, unlike Gooden, Hernandez likely won’t be pitching for a consequential team in the early seasons of his career, which means his manager won’t be tempted to sacrifice notions of sensible usage at the altar of contention. On the other hand, the Mariners have a rather grim recent history of cultivating and keeping healthy their most promising young arms (anyone remember Ryan Anderson? Ken Cloude? Rafael Soriano?).

In any event, Hernandez’s next handful of starts, if he stays on schedule, will come against more imposing opponents such as the Rangers (at hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field), Yankees, Angels, and A’s. So his mettle will be better tested in the coming weeks. However things unfold, Hernandez’s future is something to anticipate, follow, and relish – as was Gooden’s way back in 1984.The youngster will need more than talent and poise to craft a legendary career, but those two attributes make for a fine beginning.

Mr. Perry is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.