Marlins Ship Away Stars for Assorted Bin of Potential
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Contrary to expectations, the first blockbuster of the winter meetings did not take place when the Yankees or the Red Sox brought Johan Santana to the East Coast but when another East Coast franchise, the Marlins, sent some of their star players away. In a move not even hinted at by the voluminous hot stove press, the Florida Marlins dealt third baseman Miguel Cabrera and southpaw pitcher Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in return for six prospects. One of them, outfielder Cameron Maybin, is among the most eagerly anticipated young players in the game.
In Cabrera, the Tigers have acquired one of the best young hitters in baseball, albeit one without a defensive position, and with a slight weight problem. Primarily a third baseman the last two seasons, Cabrera has also played left and right field in the majors. Considered a very poor fit at the hot corner, Cabrera’s ultimate destination may be first base or designated hitter, but that’s not a problem for the Tigers, who were weak at three of the four corners last year (the exception being right field, where MVP runner-up Magglio Ordonez played). Wherever he plays, Cabrera will represent a major upgrade for an offense that already finished second in runs scored.
Detroit was much less dominant with its pitching, which is where Willis is intended to help. It’s not certain that he will. Though he will be only 26 next season, Willis has been pushed hard over the past five years. The consequences arrived this season, as Willis never showed any consistency and was often hammered, particularly by right-handed hitters, who smoked him at .320 AVG/.392 OBA/.527 SLG rates. Still, he gives the Tigers another option in a rotation that was often injured and ineffective in 2007, finishing ninth in starters’ ERA. Detroit has to hope that his poor showing was an aberration and being with a contending team will rejuvenate him.
The Marlins lose a bit more of their credibility but gain at least one probable star in the exchange. Maybin, 21 next season, was the Tigers’ first-round draft pick in 2005. He raced through the minors in just two years, posting combined rates of .309/.396/.488. He has almost all the tools — he has great speed, which he puts to use both on the base paths and in center field, where he’s also shown a strong arm. While he doesn’t yet have great power, it’s coming along. Maybin will even take a walk, a rarity in one so young, but at the same time, he doesn’t have total control of the strike zone as of yet. He strikes out a lot and will chase pitches, something that became obvious when he made his major league debut this August. He walked just three times in 53 plate appearances, while striking out 21 times.
The Marlins, who have almost literally not had a center fielder for the past couple of years (playing utility infielder Alfredo Amezaga when no one else answered the call), would be greatly helped if Maybin has matured over the winter and can be ready for opening day, but if they have to send him out for one more year of seasoning and open another season without a bona fide center fielder, so what? It’s the Marlins. There won’t really be any consequences, as they weren’t going to win either way.
The Marlins also pick up catcher Mike Rabelo, 28 next year. As a fill-in for the Tigers, he hit 256/.300/.357 in 2007, and that’s probably the upper level of his abilities. He probably isn’t the antidote the Marlins need to their incumbent catcher, Miguel Olivo, who has hit a profoundly selfish .249/.275/.422 over the last two years, but at least they’re trying. Rabelo is what is traditionally known as a “throw-in.” The real bounty of the trade, after Maybin, is the assortment of arms going to Florida. Andrew Miller, the Tigers’ first-round pick in 2006, is a left-hander with mid-90s stuff who could be an ace if the Marlins helped him refine his command and mechanics. Eulogio de la Cruz is a potential power arm for the bullpen who has already had a taste of the majors. Dallas Trahern is a sinker-throwing righty who finished last season at Triple-A; he could be back of the rotation fodder. Burke Badenhop is further away, having reached Double-A at the end of the season. He’s another potential fifth-starter/middle reliever. Together, all of these arms give the Marlins what an impoverished franchise needs: options.
In all, the Marlins gave up their best hitter and erstwhile best pitcher for 1.5 stars’ worth of potential (Maybin and Miller) and a lot of complementary parts. The Yankees, had they wished to solve their first base problem for the next 10 years, might have been able to match Detroit’s package, but their pursuit of Johan Santana with the same trading chips effectively precluded them from bidding. The Mets, with their thin system, probably could not have outbid the Tigers, but at least they no longer have to see Cabrera and Willis when they play the Marlins; in the short term, Maybin and the rest will not be the threat to them that the departed players could be at their best. The realigned Marlins may play better defense, depending on who lands at third base, but there aren’t a lot of bats like Cabrera’s.
Mr. Goldman is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.