It’s déjà vu all over again in the Western Conference playoffs.

Last year in the Western Conference quarterfinals, the Phoenix Suns, a member of the NBA holy trinity of top teams (Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio), drew a dangerous matchup with an underseeded opponent, the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns split two surprisingly competitive games at home before going to California and losing twice to fall into a 3–1 hole. Of course the Suns returned to Phoenix regrouped and won three in a row to advance.

This season, it’s Dallas’s turn in the playoff funhouse (that it’s difficult to imagine San Antonio suffering through this kind of trouble is a reminder that they are the truly great team of this era, lack of consecutive titles notwithstanding). Dallas drew a team, Golden State, whose seeding belied their quality, and now the Mavericks find themselves in a 3–1 hole with the fact that two of the remaining three games (if necessary) in the series are in Texas as their only solace.

Can Dallas also pull off a three game winning streak?

The answer would seem to be “Of course.” Dallas has had winning streaks of 17, 13, 12, and 9 en route to a 67-win season. For to win three in a row against most opponents would seem like a piece of cake. However, three in a row against Golden State is another matter. The Mavericks have consistently struggled against Golden State, losing seven of their last eight regular season meetings.

There are two other substantial factors that enlarge that advantage. For one, the Warriors are coached by Don Nelson, the Mavs’ former coach, a man unusually familiar with the tendencies of several key players, most notably Dirk Nowitzki, who is having a miserable series. Also, these Warriors are the first team specifically built to beat the Mavericks.

The current Mavericks are a plodding team that relies on interior defense and the methodical creation of isolated shot opportunities for its best players. The Warriors’ defense has relied on quickness and athleticism to clog the passing lanes between Nowitzki and other Dallas scoring threats, guard Jason Terry and forwards Jerry Stackhouse and Josh Howard. The Mavericks are committing more turnovers per game during the playoffs than the regular season, and they have become hesitant to run their offense, which has resulted in numerous possessions ending with a poor heave as the 24-second shot clock expires.

These Mavericks are still a new team; this is Avery Johnson’s second full year coaching the team, so this is the first time its had the target on its back. Knicks fans of a certain vintage can think back fondly to the Pat Riley-coached team’s 1992 encounter with the Phil Jackson/Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls. The Bulls were dazed by the Knicks’ intensity and strategy and didn’t really effectively counter them until the second half of Game 7. The Mavericks will have to find an effective counter tonight or this series won’t see a Game 7.

The first thing that Dallas needs to do is pick up the pace. This may seem counterintuitive since the matchup is cast as the slow Mavs against the speedy athletic Warriors, but Dallas tries to play more uptempo when they face San Antonio, and they need to employ the same strategy here. The fastest of the four games in this series was the Mavs’ Game 2 win. By playing at a plodding tempo, they are playing into Golden State’s defensive game plan. Also, it’s worth noting that slow teams are notoriously upset prone. I did a search at www.baseketball-reference.com of the 50 slowest paced teams since 1974, and there were a lot of quality teams in the mix that took an early exit from the postseason. For instance, two top quality Miami teams, 1999 (when it lost to the Finals-bound Knicks) and 2001, didn’t make it out of the first round, and the 48–34 Knicks of 2000–01 suffered the same fate. The list also includes several teams that struggled mightily in the playoffs such as last season’s Pistons and the 1999 Jazz. This season’s Dallas team finishes just outside the top 50 and that isn’t good company to keep.

The other reason for boosting the tempo is that Dallas isn’t well suited for slowball. They are a finesse lineup trying to play smashmouth basketball. Nowitzki, Terry, Howard, and Stackhouse all run the floor well, as does guard Devin Harris. By playing half court so often, they actually put Terry and Harris at a disadvantage since they are usually smaller than their defenders. It’s one thing for a team with a great big man like Houston, San Antonio, or Miami to play slowly so that it can run its offense with its best interior player in position, but it’s strange and borderline foolish for a team that doesn’t need that tactic to use it as often as the Mavericks do.

Johnson won the Coach of the Year award last, and now he’ll need to show his chops. The Mavericks have the best assemblage of talent in the NBA, but unless Johnson deploys it differently, they will surpass the 1994 Sonics as the biggest upset loser in league playoff history.

mjohnson@nysun.com