Call it the battle of the survivors. When the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns face off in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals tonight, each will know they were one possession away from a long, uncomfortable summer – only to come up with a miraculous 3-point play that saved their season.

In Dallas’s case, it was Dirk Nowitzki’s driving basket and foul in the waning moments of Game 7 against the Spurs. The play was something of a seminal moment in the career of the German 7-footer, because two years earlier he would never have gone to the basket with such fury. In fact, two days earlier he had failed to make that play, settling instead for a contested 3-pointer from the corner at the end of Game 6 that allowed the Spurs to seal a series-tying win.

Nowitzki apparently learned his lesson, though, and attacked the rim in the final seconds in San Antonio, possibly altering Dallas’s franchise history in the process. Just consider: If the Mavs had blown a 3-1 series lead, including a 20-point advantage in the seventh game, and known that Game 6 would likely have been theirs if Jason Terry hadn’t been suspended, it would have been one of the most colossal collar jobs in basketball history. Instead, it was the greatest moment in the team’s 25-year history.

But Dallas has nothing on the Suns, who got two season-saving 3-pointers. First came Tim Thomas’s 3-point hoist against the Lakers in the first round at the end of Game 6 to send the game to overtime – a play that first required the Suns to gather an offensive rebound after their initial attempt went awry.

That was fortuitous enough, but the less discussed and even more fortunate trifecta came in Game 5 of Phoenix’s conference semifinal series against the L.A. Clippers. With Phoenix trailing by three at the end of the first overtime and only three seconds showing on the clock, Raja Bell slipped open in the left corner and drilled a contested 3-pointer to tie things up. The Suns prevailed in the second overtime, then survived in seven against L.A.

Tonight, the two survivors square off for a spot in the NBA Finals, and the storylines couldn’t be any more compelling. For starters, the Mavericks and the Suns were the two best offensive teams in the NBA this year according Offensive Efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions (so much for “defense wins championships”), and they represent something of a changing of the guard in how NBA teams build their rosters.

Both teams faced second-round opponents who built a traditional lineup around quality centers and power forwards, half court offense, and outstanding fundamental defense. Both opponents looked better on paper, but the Suns and Mavericks ran them ragged by playing smaller lineups and neutralizing height advantages. Both the Spurs and Clippers had a 7-foot center – San Antonio’s Rasho Nesterovic and L.A’s Chris Kaman – who was rendered all but useless because the matchups left him exposed by much quicker players on defense, leaving the big guys on the pine for most of the series.

This is par for the course in the new NBA, where hand-checking on the perimeter is verboten and those who can slash to the basket are destined to dominate. It probably would have been the case a year ago, too, but teams were still figuring out how to take maximum advantage of the changes. (That’s why San Antonio, though favored to repeat all season, shouldn’t be too disappointed in the result on Monday. The problem wasn’t with the foundation they built, but with the ground shifting beneath it.)

That’s not the only great theater this series provides. Phoenix’s Steve Nash was a Maverick until two years ago, when Dallas owner Mark Cuban infamously decided not to match a free-agent offer from the Suns and instead used his money to pick up center Erick Dampier. Nash has only won back-to-back MVP awards since then, and haunted the Mavericks last year when the Suns knocked Dallas out. Nash dominated Jason Terry offensively throughout, and made a game-tying 3-pointer (here we go again) at the end of Game 6 that allowed the Suns to close out the series in overtime.

But that was a very different Suns team than the one taking the court tonight. Amare Stoudemire, the electric inside force who finished off many off Nash’s passes with volcanic jams last season, has missed most of the season with a knee injury. Kurt Thomas, the defensive force brought in to assist Stoudemire, hasn’t played in two months due to injury and may only see limited action in this series. Wingmen Quentin Richardson and Joe Johnson are gone, too, replaced by feisty defender (and ex-Mav) Raja Bell and Knicks reject Tim Thomas. And Nash has a second ball handling ace to assist him in unorthodox playmaking forward Boris Diaw.

In making over a successful team so markedly, the Suns are a sharp contrast to Dallas. Other than adding center De-Sagana Diop, this Mavs roster is virtually identical to the one that fell against Phoenix last year. The difference is that they’re much better now. Start with Nowitzki, who had the league’s highest Player Efficiency Rating (my per minute rating of a player’s statistical production), and in truth would have been a much more deserving MVP than his former teammate.

But these Mavs are much more than just Nowitzki. Their supporting cast is simply awesome, so much so that three players fouled out in the Game 7 against San Antonio and it didn’t affect the quality of Dallas’s product on the floor one iota. The Mavs can go small with lightning quick guards Terry and Devin Harris. They can go big with 7-footers Diop and Dampier. They can spread the floor with shooters by playing Keith Van Horn and Nowitzki together in the frontcourt. They can get after you defensively with hustling veterans like Darrell Armstrong and Adrian Griffin.

Dallas’s roster versatility allows coach Avery Johnson to torment opponents with matchups, much as he did with the Harris-Terry combo against San Antonio. Against Phoenix, he may take things in a completely different direction, slowing things down, pounding the Suns in the halfcourt, and taking advantage of the size advantage that Nowitzki and Dampier will own. In fact, Johnson may pull the Van Horn-Nowitzki-Dampier frontcourt out of his bag of tricks and force the Suns to guard the 6-foot-10-inch Van Horn with somebody like the 6-foot-5-inch Bell.

Regardless of how Johnson plays it, though, one reality is inescapable – he has the better team. Regardless of the MVP vote, Nowitzki clearly is the best player on the floor, and the Mavs’ deep and talented supporting cast should quickly overwhelm the Suns.

But not tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mavs come out flat as a board in Game 1, simply because of the emotional, monkey-off-the-back nature of the Game 7 win over San Antonio on Monday. After that, however, the Suns will quickly set. Expect a fairly comfortable six-game series win for the Mavs – one that won’t require a last second 3-pointer to decide things.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.