Mediocrities Meet In Subway Series

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The New York Sun

One of the blessings conferred by baseball’s hidebound approach to tradition is that interleague play did not begin until the very end of the 20th century, when the annual Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets found both teams at a point where both were competitive. Had there been interleague play in, say, 1971, pregame ceremonies would have had to include the spray painting of both teams to get an authentic subway feel. Then two mediocre squads would have dragged themselves onto the field for a contest which, if the timing was right, might have featured Tom Seaver vs. Mel Stottlemyre but just as likely could have pitted Ray Sadecki against Stan Bahnsen.


This weekend’s intra-New York conflict in the Bronx doesn’t quite sink to that level, but it clearly lacks the intensity of previous meetings. The Yankees are 10-11 in June; the Mets are 9-11.The metro area waits for both teams to make a move up or down, to deal for this year’s charge, or to wave the white flag and swap pros for prospects. But staying locked in mediocrity becomes ever more of a possibility as both teams tread water.


So much for New York bragging rights, unless one can comfortably brag as to who failed less. Still, as entertainment, the games will possess some charms. This evening will provide the series’ one marquee pitching contest, pitting Mike Mussina and his 3.82 earned run average against Pedro Martinez and his 2.76 ERA.


The one-and-change runs difference between the two is less instructive than the number of hits each pitcher has allowed. Martinez has allowed 61 hits in 101 innings, or 5.44 per nine innings pitched. Opposition batters are averaging .172 against him. Mussina has surrendered 102 hits in 94.1 innings, or 9.73 per nine. Opposing hitters are batting .278, more than 100 points higher than against Martinez.


It would seem that Martinez is vastly more dominant, but closer inspection reveals the gap isn’t quite as wide – Martinez enjoys some advantages that Mussina can only envy. First, the National League’s stubborn refusal to employ a designated hitter has helped Pedro greatly. Last season, ninth place hitters in the American League batted .240 against Martinez (18-for-75). This season, they’re batting .029 (1-for-35). Remove these hitters, and the batting average against Martinez rises to only .188, but the “free parking” provided by the pitcher’s spot undoubtedly has a cascading effect on Martinez’s performances – giving him an easy out every few innings and allowing him to pitch deeper into ballgames.


Martinez enjoys an additional benefit from better defensive support. The Mets field a league-average defense this year, converting 70% of balls in play into outs. The Yankees have the worst defense in the American League, getting outs on only 67% of balls in play. This 3% difference may seem small, but over the course of this season it means about 60 more balls will fall in against the Yankees than against the Mets, hits that in all likelihood would contribute at least 20 runs being scored by the opposition.


Mussina has allowed a .311 average on balls in play, and as badly as the Moose appears to have been abused, he’s actually been 9% more effective than the Yankee pitchers’ average. Martinez has allowed a .230 average on balls in play, which also exceeds the Mets’ team conversion rate. With the same defensive support that Martinez has, Mussina would be limiting opposing batters to a .273 average on balls in play. With the Yankees behind him, Martinez’s batting average on balls in play would be .253. By any measure, Martinez is the superior pitcher, but this year he’s had help.


The other Subway Series pitching probables hold less interest, to say the least. Saturday’s Tom Glavine-Sean Henn contest promises less than the best of either pitcher. The only thing they have in common is that Glavine left his stuff in the 1990s and Henn was born in the 1990s (well, not quite).


Glavine, the two-time Cy Young winner, has a 5.06 ERA this year, and even with the benefit of the Mets’ defense, hitters are averaging .343 on balls in play against him. This is a problem because he’s striking out just 4.4 batters per nine innings. What’s more, according to the line-drive information posted at the Hardball Times Web site, 23% of balls hit off Glavine are line drives; the major league average pitcher is allowing 18%. Clearly, hitters are no longer fooled by the 39-year-old southpaw. It’s an open question whether they will ever be fooled by the 24-year-old Henn, who sports a hefty 10.29 ERA in two starts this year.


On Sunday, two pitchers of opposite types, Kris Benson and Randy Johnson, meet up. Benson strikes out few but benefits from the Mets’ defense, allowing a .250 average on balls in play. A pitcher who allows predominantly allows flyballs, he also benefits from Shea Stadium’s pitcher-friendly style, allowing a 2.58 ERA at home and 6.00 on the road. As for Johnson, at this point he may be most impressive as a Disneyland-style recreation of himself.


Had we gotten to experience those 1970s interleague series, we might have seen Mickey Rivers stealing a base off of Craig Swan and Jerry Grote, or Bobby Murcer hitting a double on a fastball from Tom Seaver. Interesting? Yes. Exciting? No, not with nothing at stake. The same thing is true in 2005. It’s just a series, and if it takes a subway to get there, so what? Lots of people take the subway to the game.


Mr. Goldman is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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