Generally, when I think of Memphis, I think of music and barbecue. The city is the home of Sun Records and Stax Records, two classic labels that shaped popular music of the 1950s, ’60s, and early ’70s. The ‘cue tradition is so strong in Memphis that even the airport smells like a smokehouse. (I had a pulled pork sandwich for breakfast once that was so good that I’m tempted to route all my air travel through Memphis International).

For most Knicks fans, though, they will think of the upcoming draft in relation to Memphis, as the Memphis Grizzlies hold the key to the Knicks’ pick. It’s well known that the Knicks’ wish list is for one of the top three guards available: Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, or O.J. Mayo. The initial sense, following the lottery last Wednesday, was that all three would be gone by the time the Knicks picked with the no. 6 selection. But some further analysis suggests that the Knicks may need to sit tight and see — it’s possible that either Mayo will fall to them. Four of the five teams picking before the Knicks — the Chicago Bulls, the Miami Heat, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Seattle SuperSonics — seem to have their draft direction already set.

Last week, when the Bulls parlayed a 1.7% chance at landing the top pick into gold, it was thought that they would have a tough choice to make between Rose and Kansas State forward Michael Beasley. Yet without much hand-wringing, all indications are that they are leaning toward drafting Rose. The 6-foot-3-inch guard who played his collegiate ball at the University of Memphis is also a Chicago native, and he addresses the team’s greatest need.

The Bulls reversed field last season, going from 49-33 in 2006-07 to 33-49 in 2007-08. There was plenty of blame to spread around. The team quit on two coaches; starting center Ben Wallace began to show his age and was traded, and across the board, all members of the Bulls’ nucleus declined.

But forwards Andres Nocioni and Luol Deng, as well as guard Ben Gordon, showed only a 10% fall-off in their performances when measured by the Player Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger’s per-minute evaluation of a player’s statistical contributions). Point guard Kirk Hinrich, on the other hand, declined by a whopping 25%. Hinrich is 27, and while he may return to his previous level of play, his upside isn’t anywhere near that of Rose. Meanwhile, Beasley is a small power forward with issues on the defensive end, and the Bulls have two slightly undersize power forwards, Tyrus Thomas and Drew Gooden, who are excellent defensively.

If the Bulls take Rose, then Miami will take Beasley, and Heat fans can dream of him, guard Dwyane Wade, and forward Shawn Marion comprising the nucleus of an elite team for years to come. The Timberwolves need a center to build on their improved play late in the season, and Stanford big man Brook Lopez fills that bill. The SuperSonics need a lot, but with a top point guard available, it is hard to imagine them passing on Bayless, who would bring a substantial upgrade over the incumbent duo of Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour.

That brings us to Memphis, the team with the no. 5 pick. Although Mayo is likely to be available, the Griz’s roster is already packed with good young guards. There’s Mike Conley Jr., last year’s first-round pick, and Juan Carlos Navarro, a star of the Spanish national team who was picked up last summer. The Grizzlies chose Kyle Lowry with their first-round pick in 2006, and they acquired Javaris Crittenton from the Lakers in the Pau Gasol deal. It’s hard to imagine them wanting to add to that backlog.

But besides Lopez, there’s no obvious choice among the frontcourt players. If someone separates himself from the pack during the upcoming workouts, then the Griz may choose that player. If they do, Mayo will fall to the Knicks at no. 6.

An equally plausible scenario is that another team with an eye on a guard, the Los Angeles Clippers — who own the seventh pick — might leapfrog the Knicks by trading for Memphis’ pick in a swap of draft positions. The Clippers have a variety of future picks and players with expiring contracts (most notably high-scoring forward Corey Maggette) to dangle as trade possibilities. The Clippers’ best guard, Shaun Livingston, has been cleared to play Summer League after spending a year rehabbing a gruesome knee injury. He could team with Mayo, who can play either guard spot, to create a potent backcourt. This might tempt the Clippers’ All-Star forward, Elton Brand — whose contract expires in 2009 — to remain in the fold after next season.

Unfortunately, the Knicks have little to offer right now in the way of a trade that would guarantee them a chance to draft Mayo. Most of the future draft picks are gone, thanks to previous trades. The only expiring contracts on the roster are those of forward Malik Rose and guard Stephon Marbury. Marbury’s deal is too large to move in anything but a blockbuster deal. The Griz would probably only want Rose as part of a draft pick swap if the Knicks took a player with a longer contract, such as Brian Cardinal. But the team president of the Knicks, Donnie Walsh, has said he will not make trades that increase the Knicks’ future salary obligations.

This leaves Knicks fans to root that in the weeks before the draft, one or even two forwards create enough “future star” buzz that the Grizzlies are tempted to keep their pick and spend it on a top frontcourt player. It’s either that — or they can hope that the Clippers’ front office returns to its old level of incompetence that made the Clips the league’s laughingstock.

That is, until the Knicks of the Isiah Thomas vintage replaced them.

mjohnson@nysun.com