Mets Need To Harvest Free-Agent Crop

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The New York Sun

The New York Mets managed to pull off a winning campaign in 2005, but they failed in their prevailing goal: to make the playoffs for the first time since 2000. Still, progress was made. The Mets improved their record from last season by 21 games and finished 15 games closer to a playoff berth (thereby making Willie Randolph the first rookie manager since the Angels’ Mike Scioscia in 2000 to inherit a team that was more than 20 games under .500 and turn them into a winner). That improvement noted, the question this winter for general manager Omar Minaya and his charges is this: What should the club do to better position themselves for contention in 2006?


Of the free agents listed in the accompanying chart, Tom Glavine is almost certain to return, but Mike Piazza is as good as gone, and the team will most likely pass on Steve Trachsel’s option. The remaining names are unlikely to return.


Before we indulge in the off-season hypotheticals, other weaknesses must be assessed. The Mets ranked seventh in the National League this year in runs scored and third in fewest runs allowed. Considering the run-suppressing nature of Shea Stadium, the Mets didn’t fare too badly in either regard.


On the pitching front, the Mets look like they’ll enter 2006 with four-fifths of a respectable rotation in Pedro Martinez, Glavine, Kris Benson, and Jae Seo. The bullpen, meanwhile, ranked a solid fifth in the NL in relief ERA. Still, there are isolated shortcomings on the offensive side of the ledger. To wit, the Mets this season, in terms of OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) ranked far below the National League average at first base and second base.


All that leaves the following to-do list for the Mets’ front office this winter: Get a catcher, get a starting pitcher, get a first baseman, upgrade at second, get a closer, and bolster the middle relief corps. The Mets are certainly possessed of deep coffers, so they can once again be active on the free-agent market. Here’s what they should do:


* Sign Ramon Hernandez. The Padre is the best free-agent catcher on the market. Hernandez is an excellent defender with good power by catcher standards. Shea’s a tough environment for right-handed power hitters, but it’s not as tough as Petco Park, Hernandez’s current home digs. Hernandez also isn’t yet 30. He’s a mammoth defensive upgrade over the outgoing Piazza, and these days they have comparable bats.


* Sign Atlanta’s Rafael Furcal … and move Jose Reyes back to second. Yes, it’s time to regard Kaz Matsui as a sunk cost and relegate him to the bench. His defense is spotty, and he’s shown no ability to handle stateside pitching. Meanwhile, Furcal, accounting for all elements of the game, is the best free agent on the market this winter. He’s excellent defensively, has good pop for the position, runs the bases well, and gets on base at a solid clip. Furcal is also a legitimate leadoff hitter, which would allow Reyes to bat in the eight hole, where he belongs. What’s more, the Mets would be plucking Furcal, who’s still only 28 years of age, from a key division rival.


* Sign Philadelphia’s Billy Wagner … and try to forget the words “Braden” and “Looper.” Wagner is 34, which means his next contract may well extend beyond the point of dominance, but in the here and now, he’s a legitimate shutdown closer. Wagner is coming off yet another tremendous season (77.2 innings, 87 strikeouts, 1.51 ERA), and he pitched the comfortable majority of his innings in Citizen’s Bank Park – one of the best hitter’s stadiums around.


* Cobble together a first base solution on the cheap. Don’t be tempted by the siren song of Chicago’s Paul Konerko. Konerko has dubious power outside of U.S. Cellular, and it’s almost a historical imperative that multi-year, high-dollar contracts tendered to first basemen don’t work out. Mike Jacobs has certainly earned another look, and even if he reveals himself to be stretched as a regular, it won’t be difficult to pair him with a readily available lefty bat like Boston’s John Olerud and Roberto Petagine, or Tampa Bay’s Travis Lee.


* Vet the “second tier” free agents to flesh out the rotation. The Mets need not cough up a sheik’s ransom to come up with another starting pitcher. Quality free agents abound, and many of them figure to be undervalued by the market at large. Kevin Millwood, Paul Byrd or Glendon Rusch would be a fine fit in Queens.


* Resist the temptation to trade Mike Cameron. While Shea (just as Seattle’s Safeco before it) serves to obscure Cameron’s offensive abilities, he’s a quality hitter. Plus, his defense in right is vital to a staff that has demonstrated fly-ball tendencies. 1087 2094 1241 2106


The Mets’ offense can bank on further improvement from the exceptional David Wright. Cliff Floyd, provided he stays healthy, should be a potent hitter once again, and a winter of rest for Carlos Beltran’s balky hamstring should help his production.


As with any other team, the Mets will need to dodge injuries and unexpected decline on the part of their core performers. Since the Mets are perpetually in “win now” mode, you can certainly anticipate a restive off-season. If Minaya and his charges concentrate on the genuine weaknesses and make the above additions, the organization should continue its improvement into the month of October 2006.



Mr. Perry is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary and information, visit their Web site at www.baseballprospectus.com.


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