Mets Should Pay Up for More Pitching
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The Mets may have the best record in the National League, but they’re only one bad weekend away from not holding that bragging right, and a bad week away from third place in the NL East. That reflects the more basic parity that typifies Senior Circuit baseball these days, which provides plenty of excitement to fans across the country, but might have the folks in Flushing feeling a bit antsy.
There’s reason for fear. Since getting up to 35–19, the club’s in a 22–25 rut, and nearly two-thirds of their remaining schedule are against division rivals. From that intra-divisional third, they’ve got series against the San Diego Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs, and the Milwaukee Brewers — all teams with playoff ambitions of their own. The Mets lineup was expected to rank among the league’s best, and it is. Despite being in the middle of the pack in runs scored, they rank fourth with a .269 Equivalent Average, a total offensive output stat, where .260 is average, and which takes into account park and league effects. The problem — one that might only make things more difficult — is that they’re also the fourth-best offense in the division. The Philadelphia Phillies, the Florida Marlins, and the Atlanta Braves all rate better in Equivalent Average and runs scored, and the league’s best running game doesn’t exactly match up perfectly with the sort of power that the Marlins and Phillies rely on.
A large part of the problem has been the near-crippling number of injuries in the Mets outfield, costing the Mets runs from what’s supposed to be a source of offensive productive. Moises Alou was signed with the understanding that he was fragile, but the Mets anticipated that they would have gotten more than 29 starts in their first hundred games. The subsequent nagging hurts that have cost Shawn Green and Endy Chavez playing time have also exacerbated their outfield problems. The Mets have also lost second baseman Jose Valentin until at least September, and when you roll in Paul Lo Duca’s death rattle and Carlos Delgado’s glacially slow start, you see the outlines of some pretty major offensive problems.
The pitching staff is also blighted by its share of problems. General manager Omar Minaya knew he couldn’t count on Pedro Martinez for much, but Orlando Hernandez’s metronome-like visit to the disabled list, Oliver Perez’s uncertain command and reliability, and Tom Glavine’s arrival into old age all seem to have nibbled into the value they’ve gotten from John Maine’s development as a reliable front-of-the-house starter. Even if Pedro comes back and starts contributing before the end of August, you’re still left with a lot of wish-casting in the rotation — that Perez gets his kinks ironed out, that Glavine stops flailing, and that El Duque doesn’t make another one of his pre-October disappearances.
Rather than rest on the merits of the assemblage of talent currently on the roster — or those who are busily rehabbing their way back to active duty — what should the Mets do to stop treading water, and get back to owning the league, running the table in the division, and sail into the playoffs?
In part, a large measure of what the Mets can do to help themselves is a matter of self-dealing and self-healing. Concern about Lo Duca’s weak performance is more than a little reasonable. If not for a monster May (.393 AVG/.441 OBA/.488 SLG), people would be talking about whether or not he’s done. Happily, they do still have Ramon Castro in reserve. If there’s no doubt that Castro’s rate stats will drop if he played more regularly, they do reinforce his continued readiness to be one of the game’s better regulars behind the plate, if he’s given the chance.
Counting on Ruben Gotay at second base is a dubious proposition, one which might appropriately encourage Minaya to get in touch with the general manager of the Chicago White Sox, Kenny Williams, to check into getting White Sox infielder Tadahito Iguchi to play second for the remainder of the season. For the old-timers, he has the World Series ring. For performance analysts, he’s been a productive offensive player since coming over from Japan and is shaking off a slow start. For the bean counters, he’s a free agent-to-be that wouldn’t cost the Mets all that much in talent to add.
So, standing pat on offense makes some sense, but Iguchi or even the Devil Rays’ Ty Wigginton would represent some nice, relatively inexpensive shoring up. The real work needs to be done on the pitching staff, and that’s where trading gets expensive. The top starters coming up in trade talks now are mostly wearing White Sox uniforms, but will the Mets risk repeating the previous unhappy Big Apple experiences of Jose Contreras or Javier Vazquez? Then there’s concern that a softspoken workhorse such as the Sox’s Jon Garland might also be ill-suited for New York. If Minaya can find a way to take on salary instead of giving up significant talent, taking a chance on Contreras might be the most straightforward play.
An alternative would be to see if the Arizona Diamondbacks are ready to deal Livan Hernandez, and get the modern-day Don Drysdale into a better pitcher’s ballpark. The problem with much of this is that the Seattle Mariners are looking at a lot of the same people, and general manager Bill Bavasi might be desperate enough to offer some of his premium farm talent to swing a deal that propels his team past the California Angels in the AL West.
Getting a second situational lefty that is better than Scott Schoeneweis wouldn’t hurt. By putting one out of every three lefties he’s faced on base, he isn’t exactly fulfilling his job description. But the larger problem in the pen has been the absence of a reliable right-handed reliever. Counting on Aaron Heilman’s improving would be fine. Although Joe Smith hasn’t really established himself as a righty-erasing sidearm weapon of choice, they shouldn’t give up on him either. But serious talk with the Houston Astros about Brad Lidge would make a lot of sense. Failing that, seeing if the Washington Nationals will part with Jon Rauch or Chad Cordero would also work. Getting Aki Otsuka from the Texas Rangers would be a better idea than chasing after Eric Gagne. Unless Gagne is okay with forgoing some of the incentive money he gets from closing — and expresses a willingness to set up Billy Wagner — obtaining the flamethrower might only prove more trouble than it’s worth.
Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.