One March evening a couple of years ago I was watching an NCAA women’s tournament game at a sports bar when one of the regulars, a grizzled chap who fits the archetype of “informant” on crime dramas, sidled up to me and muttered, “It’s better with the girls.”

I responded with a quizzical look; I wasn’t sure where the comment was leading.

The guy smiled, pleased that he had my attention, and then he explained that he liked betting on the women’s tournament. Like all good obsessives, he was eager to explain the method to his madness.

“Seed first, coach second,” he said in a metallic voice. He went on to explain that he and several of his friends “played the ponytails” his jargon for betting on the women’s tourney to offset the losses they incurred in the far more unpredictable men’s brackets.

Point made, he went back to snarling at Pat Summitt on TV; her Lady Vols were at risk of exceeding the over/under.

This year my barfly pal might not be so happy with the ponytails. The first two rounds of the tournament, which will be played Saturday through Tuesday, should have several upsets. The expansion of talent in the game has been going on for years, but now, leading players are often opting not to go to a powerhouse where they would risk winding up role players, and instead are going to less heralded schools, often a mid-major where they can be the cornerstone of a winning program. Also the established powers are onto this trend and seem to be more and more reluctant to schedule smaller, emerging powers, thereby giving some schools an artificially low RPI arising from strength-ofschedule issues. Thus, the field of 64 is more balanced than ever. Let’s look at the bracket-busting prospects by region:

GREENSBORO

No.1 Duke (30–1) remains the prohibitive to emerge from this region, but the road for other teams is treacherous even before a potential matchup with the Blue Devils. No. 5 Michigan State (23-8) gets to host games in East Lansing, Mich., but they also drew a very tough squad from Delaware (26–5). Delaware comes out of the rugged Colonial Athletic Association, and they beat Hofstra, a team that bested the Spartans in East Lansing earlier in the year. In the other East Lansing bracket, no. 2 seed Vanderbilt (27–5) used a late surge to win the SEC, but they’re on a collision course with no. 7 Bowling Green (29–3), a team that spreads the floor and shoots the lights out — a dangerous matchup. No. 3 Arizona State (28–4) earned its gaudy record against soft opposition and is on track to play no. 6 Louisville (26–7), which played a tougher slate.

DAYTON

With four top 10 teams — the University of Tennessee (28–3), the University of Maryland (27–5), the University of Oklahoma (26–4), and Ohio State (28–3) — crammed into this region, it’s been dubbed the “Ohio of Death,” but some powers may begin to fall before the games get to Dayton. The weekend games feature one mild prospective upset: no. 9 James Madison (27–5) should beat no. 8 Pittsburgh (23–8). Then it gets interesting. Injuries in the backcourt have rendered Ohio State vulnerable, and the team’s second-round draw is Middle Tennessee (29–3), perhaps the best of a strong class of mid-majors. The Sooners will also face a tough second-round matchup from no. 6 Marquette (25–6).

DALLAS

The Dallas bracket may be the surest bet to play out according to script. Of teams in the top half of the bracket, only Texas A&M (24–6) appears especially vulnerable to an upset, most likely at the hands of tournament vets no. 5 George Washington (26–3). Also no. 3 Georgia should face a stiff challenge from no. 6 Iowa State in the second round. Once the teams get to Dallas, things could get exciting, but the first two rounds should be tranquil relative to the rest of the tournament.

FRESNO

No bracket out West is secure; each of the top seeds faces a tough challenge even before they get to Fresno. No.1 seed UConn (29–3) gets to start out close to home in Hartford, but their second-round opponent could be the formidable mid-major Wisconsin Green Bay (28–3). Although no. 2 Stanford (28–4) gets to host the first two rounds, the Cardinal face peril in the second round from no. 7 Old Dominion (24–8), the Colonial champs who started slowly, losing seven times early on. But since January 1, the Lady Monarchs have been one of the hottest teams in the country and may be the most underseeded team in the tournament.

After coach Patsy Chatman’s sudden resignation and the brewing scandal behind her departure, no. 3 Louisiana State University (26–7) will also be closely watched. Louisiana State’s first-round matchup with no. 14 UNC Asheville looks winnable, but the Lady Tigers will be severely tested by Xavier (26–7), a team from another vastly underrated conference, the Atlantic 10. Meanwhile the region will close with the first Sweet Sixteen-caliber matchup when no. 5 Baylor (25–7) meets no. 4 North Carolina State (23–9). Baylor is the 2005 champion while NC State has been riding a hot streak since the return of their coach Kay Yow, a cancer survivor.

One more forecast: a certain sports bar near me will be full of snarling angry bettors by the time Tuesday’s action ends.

mjohnson@nysun.com