The reality of the Knicks season is grim. The team is losing, the coach and star player are feuding, there is no salary cap room to add significant impact players, and the team’s next two first-round draft choices have been traded to a rival team. Thus, let’s move into the hypothetical realm to see a better future for the Knicks.

One way to do so is by applying “Moneyball” principles. Not “money ball,” as in throw money at any baller with some street cred as the current regime has done, but “Moneyball,” as in the Michael Lewis best seller on baseball’s movement toward objective analysis in personnel and on field decision-making – aka that Billy Beane stuff. “Moneyball” in basketball means adapting the metrics of my colleague John Hollinger as well as those by Dean Oliver, author of “Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis,” and the plus/minus numbers offered by Roland Beech of www.82games.com.

The Knicks need to give this form of objective analysis a whirl because they’ve spent themselves into a corner and none of the conventional approaches will do much to restore order. The franchise is capped out until the summer of 2009, so the only new veteran talent will be the players accepting the mid-level exception, and those are typically marginal players, not stars. Thus, the team will have to shop wisely in that market. Furthermore, the team will likely not have a lottery pick until 2008, so the rookie talent will also come from the secondary ranks.

Last year’s Seattle Supersonics were the first NBA team to build their strategy around this kind of philosophy. After years of mediocrity (two first-round playoff exits were the extent of their postseason experience since 1998), and stuck in a financial bind due to a bad arena deal that severely constricted the team’s revenues, team president Wally Walker opted for radical change. The Sonics brought in Oliver and as a consultant, but left all other executive personnel in place as they got on board with the new approach. They then constructed a team of role players around sharpshooters Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis and surprised everyone by winning the Northwest Division at 52-30.

Many key members of the team were in the walk years of their contract, however, and the team fell victim to its own success. Portland hired away head coach Nate McMillan, who in turn brought several of his assistants. McMillan’s lead assistant, Dwayne Casey, took the head job with the Timberwolves. One of the key role players, backup point guard Antonio Daniels, received a lucrative free agent deal from the Wizards. In the aftermath of the brain drain, the team has floundered.

A Moneyball-oriented basketball team focuses on efficiency much as a baseball team organized on those principles obsesses about on base percentage. Seattle finished second in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions. The sharpshooters had a big role in that, as the team finished fifth in the league in True Shooting Percentage, Hollinger’s refinement of shooting percentage to account for free throws and 3-pointers. But the committee of rebounders made a bigger impact, elevating Seattle from 22nd in 2004 to second last year.

The organizational philosophy was elegantly simple: Make sure your best shooters take most of the shots and rebound zealously to create as many opportunities as possible.

The four factors of an efficient offense are shooting well, getting to the line a lot, taking care of the ball, and rebounding missed shots. Let’s see how the Knicks stack up.

While there’s no one named Ben Wallace or Dwight Howard on the Knicks roster, the Knicks rebound well already. They rank second in percentage of their own missed shots rebounded, 31.8%. Where the Knicks’ offense needs work is in shot selection. They rank 25th in True Shooting Percentage. The Moneyball Knicks would need to aim to put the ball in the hands of their most efficient shooters – center Eddy Curry, forwards Channing Frye and Jalen Rose, and guards Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis – in a position to shoot. Right now, even when the right players touch the ball, they often have to create their shot, which Curry in particular is ill-suited to do. The result is usually turnover, something Curry does nearly three times per game. As any fan of the team knows, the Knicks turn the ball over way too much – nearly once in every five possessions.

The Knicks do, however, excel in the last phase of an efficient offense: getting to the line. Almost 30% of their shot attempts result in free throws, a sure sign that they are getting to the rim.

When it comes to Defensive Efficiency, unfortunately, the Knicks rank poorly in all four categories. They’re 26th in opponents True Shooting Percentage, 20th in takeaways, 15th in allowing offensive rebounds, and 29th in free throws allowed per shot attempt. These are deplorable numbers, but rather than pointing fingers, we should highlight what sort of role players the team needs next season.

The good news is that part-time players who excel on defense like former Sonic Reggie Evans and current Sonic Earl Watson come more cheaply than one-way players who score a lot. The Knicks have two first-round draft picks that will come late in the round and their mid level exception. This is where the new expenditures should be focused.

Given the Knicks’ current state, most fans would happily embrace a philosophy that might lead to a 52-30 season. Is it possible? Probably not. The Francis deal was just another sign that Isiah Thomas is more interested in star power than team building. Coach Larry Brown continues to hammer on the players and yammer about the lack of defense when his team’s biggest untapped upside is its offensive ability. And Marbury seems to think the 39-43 team of two years ago represents the good ol’ days. All three are probably too stubborn to embrace something developed by a bunch of geeks with laptops, but if they did, the benefits would likely be considerable. It might not produce a title, but it would certainly produce a more competitive team.

mjohnson@nysun.com