MVP Case for Nowitzki Is Open and Shut
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

In my travels through the sports pages across this great nation of ours, I’ve noticed a surprising amount of hand wringing over the upcoming selection of the NBA Most Valuable Player award. It seems like everyone has an opinion on why it shouldn’t go to Dallas forward Dirk Nowitzki. The complaints range from the fact that giving the award to Dirk isn’t controversial to that it isn’t highlight-clip friendly to it not being a sexy pick.
This is all true, but the award is for the most valuable player, and Nowitzki has been the leading player on the best team and of the players who haven’t missed substantial time with injuries he’s accomplished the most.
Nowitzki’s Mavericks had won 66 games going into last night’s action. Although he’s the best player on that team, the arguments go deeper. He’s scoring 24.6 points a game on a team that averages 99.9. Or put another way, he scores 24.5% of his team’s points in 15.1% of his team’s minutes — a pretty nice return on their investment. Then consider the rest of his résumé: 8.9 rebounds a game, 50.1% shooting percentage, 41.9% from behind the arc (an asset that discombobulates most opposing defenses by forcing their one of their best interior defenders away from the paint), and 3.4 assists. Nowtizki’s accomplishments are as well rounded and efficient as any player in the league not named Dwyane Wade, and Dirk didn’t miss a third of the season with a shoulder injury.
Some critics have noted that Nowtizki’s points per game average is low for an MVP candidate, but it isn’t. Kevin Garnett, another player with a well-rounded skill set, averaged 24.2 points a game in his MVP season. Tim Duncan averaged 23.3 in the most recent of his two MVP campaigns. Even as prolific a scorer as Karl Malone averaged only 23.8 points per game during his last MVP season.
Nowtizki’s point total may seem down compared with his tallies earlier in his career, but that’s where pace and minutes per contest need to be factored in. The Avery Johnson-coached Mavericks teams are typically near the bottom of the league in possessions per game; this year’s team ranks 28th in Pace Factor, which measures possessions per game. The Don Nelson teams that Nowitzki starred on a few years ago were typically in the top five in that category. Also, Dirk is playing fewer minutes now than he did earlier in his career, which also distorts the comparisons of his points per game average.
The most frequently repeated barb tossed at Nowitzki’s candidacy is that he’s not clutch. I wonder if the people who claim this saw last season’s San Antonio-Dallas playoff series, particularly Game 7 when Nowitzki’s drive to the hoop and foul tied the game with seconds to go. This season, Nowitzki missed a potential game-tying shot in the second overtime against Phoenix on March 14, but he also made a gamewinner on December 28 against the Suns. Dirk started out poorly in last-shot situations, but he has nailed four of his last five game-winning/game-tying attempts.
Nowitzki should be given credit for the fact that those situations don’t arise often. Dallas is pummeling opponents by almost seven points per game. Some players often have to take big shots because their team is frequently involved in close games, but Nowitzki’s Mavericks usually have closed out their opponents by late in the fourth quarter. This sort of highlight reel analysis is the parallel to voting a gold glove for a baseball player who makes diving stops all the time rather than the player who makes plays on comparably hit balls without leaving his feet.
What about the other candidates? Although Kobe Bryant’s leagueleading 31.6 points per game is impressive as is his run of 50-point games, he’s maintained this level for less than half the season and has failed to rescue his team from a tailspin that took the Lakers from middle of the pack to just barely qualifying for the playoffs. Were it not for his shoulder injury and his teammates, I might be arguing for Dwayne Wade in this piece. His per game averages are superb, but it’s hard to support someone’s whose best team accomplishment is keeping the defending champions out of the lottery. Although referee Joey Crawford obviously doesn’t think so, Tim Duncan has a nice case for MVP, but his key metrics don’t measure up to Nowitzki’s. Last, Steve Nash, the winner of the last two MVP’s, has improved his numbers across the board, but I didn’t support either of his previous awards (my choices were Amare Stoudemire two seasons ago and LeBron James last year), but I actually like his case this season. But again Nash’s overall statistical portfolio isn’t as strong as Nowitzki’s, particularly when you consider that Nash plays on a team with nearly eight more possessions per game.
I agree with the critics that Dirk isn’t an especially iconic figure in the way that the other MVP candidates are, but that isn’t a qualification for the award. It should go to the best player in the league. This season, it should be readily apparent that Nowitzki has had the best year of any NBA player.