There’s no reason to give anyone other than Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal a chance to win this year’s French Open. Considering how these two have performed on clay the last two years, excepting Federer’s recent slump, the other 126 men enrolled in Roland Garros might save us all some time and withdraw, leaving the world no. 1 and no. 2 to play a best-of-seven series over two weeks. Why wait so long to watch an inevitable match?

Yet there is one contestant this year — a man who almost certainly will not take home the title — who can give the rest of the field hope, and teach all of us a lesson about clay: Martin Verkerk.

When the 6-foot-5-inch Dutchman arrived in Paris in 2003, at age 24, he had won one pro tournament in his life, on a fast indoor court in Milan. He lost both matches he had played at Grand Slam events and had never played at Roland Garros before. His expectations were such that he agreed to play for a club team in the Netherlands the week after the French Open.

In the second round, Verkerk seemed ready for an early exit when he trailed 2–5, 0–40 in the fourth set against Peru’s Luis Horna: triple match point. But his serve bailed him out, and he went on to defeat former French Open champion Carlos Moya and claycourt wizard Guillermo Coria in successive rounds to reach the final, where Juan Carlos Ferrero ended his run.

The traditional view of clay holds that a player like Verkerk doesn’t stand a chance. He relies on a booming serve and a flat forehand, and plays with little margin for error. On indoor courts and fast outdoor courts, or grass, a tall, powerful player can upset anyone in the world. But on clay, where balls bounce a little higher and hang in the air longer, he’ll be at the mercy of any number of speedy Spaniards or Argentines equipped with looping topspin groundstrokes and thighs that resemble lumber.

I won’t say that this view of clay is nonsense, but it’s not nearly the whole story. Yes, nine out of the last 10 French Opens were won by men who hailed from Brazil, Argentina, or Spain (Andre Agassi won the other one). But plenty of men who do not count clay as their favorite surface have done well at Roland Garros.

Agassi, for one, was not the sort of player one would expect to succeed in Paris. Clay often produces tricky bounces, and when you hit the ball as early as Agassi, any unexpected variation can produce an error. Yet he won one title and reached the final two other times. Jim Courier won two titles with a style well-suited to clay, but even better suited to hard courts. John McEnroe reached one final, where he blew a two-sets-to-love lead. Pete Sampras made three quarterfinals and one semifinal and don’t forget his remarkable Davis Cup weekend in 1995, when he contributed three points, including singles victories over Andrei Chesnokov and Yevgeny Kafelnikov, in the final against Russia on clay. Another serve-and-volleyer, Tim Henman, reached the French Open semifinals in 2004, and last year Ivan Ljubicic, whose greatest weakness is his movement, did the same. Stefan Edberg, Michael Stich, and Petr Korda also played in finals.

Verkerk returns to Roland Garros this year with a protected ranking after missing the 2005 and 2006 tournaments to undergo shoulder operations. He’s 0–7 this year and can’t hope for a repeat of 2003. Yet his past success is more relevant now than ever. There’s currently a shortage of players who 1.) prefer clay and 2.) are playing well leading up to the tournament. Remember Gaston Gaudio, the 2004 French Open champion? He’s 4–8 on clay this year, down to no. 70 in the rankings, and talking about retirement at age 28. Guillermo Coria is injured and hasn’t played a match this year. Ferrero is a shadow of his former self, Nicolas Almagro hasn’t lived up to expectations, and Carlos Moya doesn’t have the wherewithal to play well on consecutive days. Guillermo Canas, who could do no wrong earlier this year, hasn’t been the same since injuring his leg.

Nadal remains a slight favorite, followed by Federer. Everyone else is on equal footing, even Americans Andy Roddick and James Blake. Roddick has hit a rough patch since injuring his hamstring, but if he serves well, as he has this week in a warm-up event, he could reach the second week for the first time in his career. While Blake continues to struggle this year, his performance in Paris last year, which included a win over Almagro and a bad loss to Gael Monfils, was encouraging. The biggest thing the Americans lack in Paris is comfort and confidence, two things that could be corrected if they would commit fully to the European clay-court season. The results would follow, without having to change their strategies all that much.

Two other heavy hitters could do some damage in this event: Tomas Berdych and, less likely, Ivo Karlovic. Berdych has flat strokes and a huge serve, and no fear of clay. He defeated Tommy Robredo in Monte Carlo on his way to the semifinals, where he lost to Nadal. Karlovic won his first professional title this year in Houston on clay — a shock since the 6-foot-10-inch Croat’s strokes are as weak as his serve is strong (his volleys are solid, too).

None of these men, mind you, have much chance of beating Federer or Nadal. If such an upset occurs, it would probably come at the hands of Novak Djokovic, the young Serb who reached the semifinals last year, or an erratic and dangerous player like Mikhail Youzhny, whose explosive game works on all surfaces (I’m tempted to put Richard Gasquet in this category, but his performances this year suggest he’s not quite up to the task). Lleyton Hewitt always troubles Nadal with his strong two-handed backhand and ability to play angles and approach the net (he’s 4–2 overall, and he swiped a set from Nadal at last year’s French Open). If those two meet, expect a tough match.

Only one man, Bjorn Borg, has won the French Open three consecutive years in the Open Era — history, in other words, doesn’t favor a repeat of last year. Surprising as it would be to see Nadal or Federer, or both of them, lose, a lot can happen in two weeks. Unless, that is, the rest of the field worries too much about the dirt beneath their feet.

tperrotta@nysun.com