Nash-Mavericks Reunion Highlights Second Round

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And then there were eight.


With the first round out of the way, the NBA playoff field has mostly been weeded of its pretenders. Of the eight teams remaining, seven have legitimate championship aspirations. The one exception is Washington, which is ecstatic to still be playing after making the second round of the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century. Not surprisingly, Miami routed the Wizards 105-86 in Game 1 yesterday to open the second round.


The other three series all have interesting story lines and should each provide plenty of drama over the next two weeks. Let’s take a closer look at the contenders:


PHOENIX (62-20) VS. DALLAS (58-24)


This is far and away the most interesting first-round pairing. For starters, there’s the history. Steve Nash led Dallas’s attack for six seasons. But he departed for Phoenix as a free agent last summer when Mavs owner Mark Cuban wouldn’t match the Suns’ offer, citing Nash’s age as a concern. Cuban couldn’t have been more wrong, as Nash led the Suns to the league’s best record and won the MVP award despite not washing his hair the entire season.


But even without the Nash storyline, this would make for a great series. One could argue that Phoenix and Dallas are two of the NBA’s three best teams, making for an unusually strong second-round clash. Minus Nash, the Mavs still managed to improve their record by eight games after importing center Erick Dampier and point guard Jason Terry. Terry is no Nash, but his blazing speed and accurate shooting add an important dimension to the Dallas attack. He burned Houston in the first round, compensating for a subpar performance by forward Dirk Nowitzki.


It will be the frontcourt players, however, who decide this series. Dampier was humiliated by Yao Ming in the first round and his job won’t get any easier in the second – he’ll have to guard high-flying Amare Stoudemire. Despite all the accolades for Nash, Stoudemire is Phoenix’s best player, averaging 26 points a game on a mind-boggling 55.9% from the floor during the regular season.


While Yao dominates with size, Stoudemire does it with quickness. His first step is so fast that few centers can keep up, which may force Dampier to the bench so the Mavs can play a smaller lineup. Of course, they’d prefer that Dampier stay on the floor. He’s one of the best offensive rebounders in the game, while Phoenix was the second-worst defensive rebounding team this past season. His ability to avoid fouls and punish Phoenix on the glass will go a long way toward determining the winner.


The other frontcourt spot features an All-Star matchup of Nowitzki and Shawn Marion. Nowitzki is a deadly shooter but struggled against the defense of Houston’s Tracy McGrady in the first round. He’ll face a similar opponent in Marion – a shorter player but one who can jump quickly. Nowitzki’s best bet may be to try to overpower the 210-pound Marion in the post. He may have some trouble, though, because his preference is to shoot jumpers. Meanwhile, Marion’s quickness could give Nowitzki plenty of problems at the defensive end.


Unfortunately, the Mavericks will be without one key weapon in this series, as forward Keith Van Horn is sidelined with an ankle sprain. Van Horn made a potent partner with Nowitzki because Dallas could spread the floor with five shooters and maintain enough size to defend and rebound. Now they face a starker choice: Play Dampier and sacrifice speed, or play Nowitzki at center with Josh Howard at power forward and sacrifice size.


Dallas played great down the stretch and was able to beat a tough Houston team despite a poor effort from Nowitzki. While his struggles likely won’t continue, Nowitzki will have to be scorching hot to keep up with the Suns’ mighty offense, so the Mavs will fall just short.


Pick: Suns in seven


DETROIT (54-28) VS. INDIANA (44-38)


Call this series “The Return to the Scene of the Crime,” as these two rivals renew hostilities six months after their brawl in Detroit. Despite the suspension of Ron Artest and innumerable injuries to key players, the Pacers somehow clawed their way into the postseason and shocked Boston in Game 7 on Saturday to advance to this round.


Don’t sell Indiana short in this series, either. The Pacers are rapidly returning to health and are the strongest they’ve been since losing Artest. Although power forward Jermaine O’Neal could be seen grabbing his shoulder in pain during the first round against Boston, his condition improved as the series wore on, and he ended up averaging 20 points and three blocks over the final three games of the series.


Even better news came when point guard Jamaal Tinsley suited up for Game 5 of the first round. Tinsley missed most of the final two months with foot problems, but his return eliminated a major weakness for Indiana. The Pacers had been susceptible to pressure defense during his absence because backup Anthony Johnson lacked the speed to burn past his man, which Boston exploited in the first four games. With Tinsley back at the helm, the Pacers have had a much easier time getting into their offense. And Tinsley is a major defensive upgrade who will need to contain Detroit’s Chauncey Billups.


In the big picture, however, the Pistons are much too strong for Indiana. Detroit has won 15 of its past 17 games, repeating last year’s late-season surge that culminated in a championship. Additionally, the Pistons match up very well against Indiana. Rasheed Wallace’s length and athleticism should bother O’Neal in the post, while defensive ace Tayshaun Prince can put the clamps on Indy’s Stephen Jackson.


If you plan to watch, make sure there’s some espresso handy. These teams are the two slowest-paced in the NBA, and in their six-game series a year ago, neither team scored more than 85 points in a game.


Pick: Pistons in six


SAN ANTONIO (59-23) VS. SEATTLE (52-30)


This series may have ended almost as soon as it began. Seattle lost both Vladimir Radmanovic and Ray Allen to sprained ankles in a one-minute span of the second quarter in last night’s Game 1. If those two can’t comeback, then the Sonics are toast.


Presuming they can return, the Sonics’ quirks present an unusual challenge: Despite an offense that’s based mainly on 3-pointers, they might be the league’s most physical team. That’s a style that tends to get under the Spurs’ skin. Look for Tim Duncan to bear the brunt of the punishment. The Sonics’ Reggie Evans, Danny Fortson, and Nick Collison all will happily use their allotment of six fouls to force Duncan to confront his demons at the free-throw line.


Oddly enough, Allen himself was the one complaining about physical play before the series began. He drew attention to the defense of San Antonio’s Bruce Bowen, saying Bowen plays “sissy basketball” and accusing him of grabbing, elbowing, and other assorted dirty tricks. The Allen-Bowen matchup is a key one in this series, so if and when he comes back it’s vital that Allen maintains his composure.


The other key player could be Seattle center Jerome James, who was lights-out in the first-round of Sacramento. His performance seems like a giant fluke, especially after his 4-point, 2-rebound showing in Game 1. But the Sonics’ upset hopes become more realistic if the big fella can keep up his unlikely performance for two more weeks. Considering the upgrade in competition, I doubt he will.


Pick: Spurs in six


MIAMI (59-23) VS. WASHINGTON (45-37)


Washington has two important advantages over Miami, because the Heat match up very poorly against two of the Wizards’ top three scorers. Miami’s Damon Jones is smaller and slower than Gilbert Arenas, while Eddie Jones gives up several inches to Antawn Jamison. Unfortunately, Jamison reinjured his knee in Game 1 and hobbled through most of the second half. He’s battled tendonitis most of the second half of the season, and if he can’t return at full strength, the Wizards’ slim chances decline to none.


More ominously, Washington seems completely unable to stop the Heat. The Wizards were a below-average defensive team during the regular season, while Miami ranked second in Offensive Efficiency (my ranking of a team’s points per possession). True to form, the Heat shot 52.4% against Washington in breezing to the win yesterday, and Miami can look forward to more of the same over the next few games. Washington might be able to steal a game if Arenas and backcourt mate Larry Hughes get hot, but that’s about the upper limit.


Pick: Heat in five


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