It’s deja vu all over again. Despite a strong finish to the season that offset a slow start, the New Jersey Nets enter their playoff series against the Miami Heat tonight as a decided underdog for the second straight season. The main protagonists haven’t changed, either – the dynamic duo of Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade remains the focal point for the Heat, while the Nets’ starting five is unchanged from last April.

But in some other ways, things are very different this year. For starters, the Nets aren’t happy just to be here. Last year’s team used a 15-4 run in the final weeks of the season to grab the final playoff spot in the East, and was quickly overwhelmed against a Miami team sporting the East’s best record. Additionally, Richard Jefferson was returning from injury and playing at half speed. Few were surprised when the Heat won in four relatively easy games.

But a Miami sweep would qualify as an absolute shocker this year. Make no mistake – the smart money is still on the Heat to win the series. But the Nets closed the gap considerably over the past 12 months and, in fact, won three of the teams’ four regular season meetings this year.

Two factors work against the Nets in this series, however. The first is homecourt advantage. Should the series be knotted after six games, the Heat would get a huge edge by having the rubber match played in their building. If you need to know how much that helps, just ask Phoenix.

The second element is Shaquille O’Neal. After being out of shape for much of the season, the big fella looked as sharp as he has all season in leading Miami past Chicago in Games 5 and 6 of the first round. In the finale, Shaq dominated with 30 points and 20 rebounds, numbers that may give Nets fans flashbacks to the 2002 Finals, when their team was swept aside by Shaq and his Lakers.

So with two advantages already in Miami’s column, the Nets need to come up with a few of their own to pull off the upset. Many possibilities come to mind (if Scott Padgett hits seven 3-pointers a game, for instance, I guarantee the Nets will win), but three realistic ones are almost certain to determine if the Nets can advance.

1.Vince Carter needs to go off. Far and away the most important determinant of the Nets’ chances is that their best player must perform at a high level. It was Carter’s poor play last season that doomed the Nets in the playoffs. He repeatedly settled for long, contested jump shots rather than taking it to the basket – a bad habit he periodically reverts to without warning – and shot just 36.5% for the series.

Thankfully, Carter has showed up for this year’s playoffs in a much more aggressive mood. In the Nets’ first-round win over Indiana, Carter dominated to the tune of 29.2 points,8.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists a game. He also drew 55 free-throw attempts in the six games (or more than nine a contest), an important indicator of how much more focused he was on taking defenders off the dribble. In fact, Carter’s Player Efficiency Rating (my per-minute rating of a player’s statistical effectiveness) was the league’s second-best in the first round.

Another positive is that Eddie Jones is no longer on the Heat roster, meaning James Posey will probably get the assignment on Carter to start games. Posey entered the season with a reputation as a good defender, but he’s struggled at times this season and should be relatively easy prey for Carter. Dwyane Wade should also see extended minutes defending Carter, as will reserve guards Shandon Anderson and Derek Anderson.

None had any success against Carter this year. He averaged 38.5 points on 55.7% shooting in the season series. All told, he should consider this series his golden opportunity to shine.

2. Jason Kidd has to get back on track.

The Pacers’ Anthony Johnson used to be Jason Kidd’s backup, and he wasn’t even a particularly good one. So it was disconcerting to see Kidd’s former understudy torch him so convincingly in the first round. Johnson was the only thing keeping the Pacers in the series, averaging 20 points per game on 51.7% shooting and beating Kidd off the dribble to get a key foul call at the end of Game 1.

For his part, Kidd could muster only 8.0 points per game and shot a horrendous 29.2% from the floor, and while he was still effective passing the ball and running the break, the Nets aren’t so stacked with offensive options that they can afford to have Kidd scoring in single digits.

On the other end, Kidd’s defense against Miami’s Jason Williams needs to be several notches better than it was against Johnson. Kidd was probably the Nets’ best defender in the regular season, so the Johnson thing may have just been a fluke. But he’s also 33 and has played over 3,000 minutes this year. One was to wonder if he’s running out of gas.

3. Somebody must stop Dwyane Wade. Nets fans are amped up about this matchup because they feel the Heat can’t guard Carter. But that won’t matter if the Nets can’t guard Wade. If you’ll recall, a year ago Shaquille O’Neal was almost a total non-factor against New Jersey, but it became irrelevant because Wade torched Jefferson, Carter, and others for 26.3 points a game on 50% shooting.

This time around, the same guys will be guarding Wade, and they better hope for more success. The regular season provided a few rays of hope, as New Jersey held Wade to a more human 25.8 points and 41.1% shooting. But in the postseason, Miami draw up plays specifically designed to take advantage of the matchup advantage Wade will have against Jefferson.

It’s a big advantage, too. Jefferson is a great athlete, but he isn’t nearly as quick or agile as the smaller Wade and will be hard-pressed to avoid foul trouble. In fact, the inability to guard Wade straight up could force coach Lawrence Frank to use a lot of zone schemes. The wild card in all this is Kidd. He’s a point guard by trade, but he’s also been very successful throughout his career when asked to guard shooting guards. He’s been most successful against guards who run through lots of screens (like Detroit’s Richard Hamilton and Reggie Miller)rather than slashers like Wade, but New Jersey may give it a try out of desperation.

If the Nets pull of all three tasks above, they’ll win the series in six. My guess is they’ll fall short on the last item. I won’t be surprised if Carter averages 30 or even 35 points a game in this series, nor will I be amazed if Kidd badly outplays Williams. But Wade’s superhuman quickness makes him a terrible matchup for the Nets, and regardless of Frank’s defensive acumen, I can’t envision a scenario in which New Jersey neutralizes him. Ultimately, that will cost the Nets their season.

The Pick: Miami in six.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.