Nets Given Yet Another Lifeline

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Alright Nets fans, it’s now time for the latest installment of our season-long series, “Thank Our Lucky Stars We Play in the East.”

While the Nets continue to do little or nothing to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff team, the decomposing rosters that surround them in the cesspool known as the Eastern Conference provide them with one opportunity after another.

Though New Jersey has chosen to pass on all previous offers of good fortune, preferring instead to wallow in mediocrity, chance has once gain bestowed upon the Nets an opportunity to right their listing ship and get it pointed back in a contending direction.

That we’re still even mentioning contention is amazing, and a profound indictment of Eastern Conference basketball. Consider: When the Nets couldn’t win a gimme division that had been all but ceded to them at the start of the season, it didn’t matter — Boston, New York, and Philadelphia were awful enough to assure they’d finish no worse than second.

And when the Nets fell below .500 (and kept falling), the East rode to the rescue again. First, Orlando forgot how to play basketball, and then it was Indiana’s turn. The upshot was that the Nets are four games under .500 … yet find themselves in solid command of the no. 7 slot in the conference and with it, a completely undeserved playoff berth.

Yet apparently this wasn’t enough for the basketball gods, as they threw yet another bone the Nets’ way on Wednesday night in the form of a season-ending knee injury to Washington guard Gilbert Arenas.

To understand why the loss of Arenas would have any impact whatsoever on the Nets, allow me to connect a few dots. First, look at the big picture. Right now, there are four teams in the East that are head and shoulders above the rest: Detroit, Cleveland, Miami (presuming Dwyane Wade comes back), and Chicago.

If the playoffs began today, Detroit would be seeded first, Cleveland second, Miami fourth, and Chicago fifth. Which, for a team like the Nets, means that the coveted position is no. 6 — producing a first-round matchup against third-seeded Toronto, a tough team but far less scary than the others.

At the moment, Washington is in possession of that spot, and given their four-game lead on the Nets and only eight games left to play, it would seem the Wizards have it safely wrapped up. Or rather, it seemed that way until Arenas went down. That, combined the previous loss of All-Star forward Caron Butler just days earlier and the Wizards near-total lack of productivity from the bench, means Washington is doomed to a rocky finish to its regular season.

Just how rocky? Well, consider this: The Wizards just got swept in a home-and-home series by Charlotte and have beaten one team with a winning record in the past two months. That was with Arenas playing, mind you. Moreover, history tells us this Washington team has played poorly without its top scorers the past few seasons; in fact, their 25–57 debacle in 2003-04 came largely because star guards Arenas and Larry Hughes missed half the season.

Thus, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Washington could lose all of its remaining eight games. Six of those games are against likely playoff teams, four of them are on the road, and not one of them would be easy even if Arenas and Butler were healthy.

But wait, it gets better. Not only does Washington’s setback make it possible for New Jersey to catch the Wizards, it also virtually ensures that the Nets will be in the playoffs. That’s because there’s an added twist of good fortune: The Nets still have two games left against the wounded Wizards.

Thus, even if Washington can scrape together the win or two it needs to hold on to no. 6, the two automatic wins headed New Jersey’s way should pretty much shut the door on any chance of the Pacers passing them in the standings.

It gets even better. Since the Nets have already beaten Washington twice this year, they will own the head-to-head tie-breaker if they win both games (something they assuredly need to do in order to catch Washington anyway). That means they can go 4–4 in their final eight games if Washington goes 0–8, or 5–3 if the Wizards finish 1–7, and end up tied at either 39 or 40 wins.

Of course, doing this will require a brief burst of competence from the Nets, which is something we shouldn’t take for granted. New Jersey’s remaining schedule isn’t exactly a bowl of cherries either — they have Cleveland, Chicago twice, and only three home games in their final eight. But with the help of Washington’s recent foibles, it’s easy enough to allow them to catch the Wizards.

For instance, even if Washington squeezes out one win in its final eight games, New Jersey would only need to win five of its final eight to catch them. Assuming the Nets can knock off the Wizards twice in their head-to-head meetings, I can come up with the other three fairly easily: a split of the two games left against the Knicks, a win at reeling Indiana, and a win in the Meadowlands on the last day of the season against a Chicago team that’s likely to be resting its starters.

In fact, if Chicago has locked up the no. 2 seed by then, they’ll have every incentive to help the Nets catch Washington. Much as the bottom half of the East is dying to be the no. 6 seed and face Toronto, all the teams at the top of the East are now hoping to draw a neutered Wizards team in Round 1. Thus, a no. 2 Chicago team would happily allow New Jersey to pass Washington, bumping the Wizards down to the no. 7 spot and giving the Bulls a virtual bye in the opening round.

So with yet another lifejacket dropping down from the sky, let’s see if the Nets can take advantage of some of this good fortune. And if it they do, we should fondly recall one other piece of luck. Remember back in November, when Vince Carter’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer against the Wizards hit the back of the rim with a thud and unexpectedly bounced straight into the net, turning a certain loss into an improbable win? It would be doubly amazing if that fortuitous bounce is what allows the Nets to pass Washington in the standings and, perhaps, make something of this lost season after all.

jhollinger@nysun.com


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