Nets Pick Up Pace After Early Struggles
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Finally, it looks like the real New Jersey Nets are standing up.
Since beginning what was to be a starstudded, playoff-bound season, the Nets have been enigmatic, schizophrenic, and mostly disappointing this season. On the one hand, New Jersey has proved itself capable of beating Western Conference teams with relative ease – the Nets have posted a 7-4 record against teams from across the Mississippi and this week they thrashed Golden State by 28 points and the Los Angeles Clippers by 14. On the other hand, these same Nets have been clobbered at home by 5-20 Toronto and 8-18 Charlotte. Their victory over the Clips on Tuesday marked the Nets’ first three game-winning streak all season. Their win over Orlando last night finally pushed them over the .500 mark.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Most pundits figured the Nets would easily win the Atlantic Division, and at least advance to a long second round playoff series. Instead, the team’s 13-12 mark has left them one half game behind a soft Philadelphia squad. But the winning streak has included signs of permanent improvement on both sides of the ball for the Nets. Center Jason Collins’s return to regular action has bolstered the defense, and shooting guard Vince Carter is more consistently playing like the impassioned MVP candidate he appeared to be at the end of last season.
The impact of Collins’s return has surprised many observers, myself included. Collins doesn’t rack up impressive numbers either via conventional stats or the advanced offensive metrics founded by John Hollinger. In four plus seasons, he has averaged just 5.6 points and 4.5 boards per game. He has, however, mastered many of the things that don’t (yet) show up on a stat sheet. As Hollinger has noted, Collins takes a load of charges, a key skill for a big man who doesn’t block a lot of shots. He’s also remarkably quick on rotations, which is crucial to the Nets perimeter defense.
One of the cornerstone characteristics of any defense is how it responds to the age-old pick and roll. Thanks to the quickness of the Nets’ perimeter players – Carter, small forward Richard Jefferson, and point guard Jason Kidd – the Nets favor a strategy of trapping the player who has the ball. This often leads to turnovers and fast breaks, but it requires that the other Nets on the floor recognize the situation and leave their man if necessary to guard the closest open man.
During the first part of the season, during which Collins missed seven games and saw only limited action in several others due to a variety of injuries, the Nets’ other big men – Nenad Krstic, Marc Jackson, and, to a lesser extent, Clifford Robinson – were slow in rotating, and opponents were able to beat the Nets’ double team and either score easy baskets or get to the foul line. Collins’s return to regular action has slowed this parade to the basket, and the Nets’ defense has improved tremendously. They ranked 27th in Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) three weeks ago. Now they rank 20th.
There is one metric that does quantify Collins’s value: the Adjusted Plus/Minus stats at www.82games.com, which reveal that the Nets are allowing points at the miniscule rate of 89 per 48 minutes with Collins on the floor. Collins has only played in 38% of the Nets minutes, which goes a long way to explain the team’s early struggles on defense. His importance was vital to the Nets putting the Clippers away on Tuesday night. Three times late in the first half, his rotation denied Clipper players an easy pass out of the double team and led to a turnover and a Nets fast break hoop.
Carter’s improvement shows up in more conventional metrics, and it’s the old standard by which we’ve come to measure Vinsanity’s attack: free throw attempts. When he’s going to the line a lot, it’s a sign that he’s attacking the rim. Last season, when Carter helped lead the Nets to a 19-8 finish and a playoff spot on the season’s final night, Carter attempted an average of 6.8 free throws per game.
This was a marked change from his final weeks in Toronto, where he usually settled for jumpers and visited the charity stripe less than four times per game.
In November, Carter averaged only five attempts from the line per game, and those numbers were skewed by four games in which took 10 free throws or more. There were eight games in which visited the line three times or less. While Carter is a superb outside shooter – he’s hitting 38.7% from behind the arc – the Nets need him driving to the hoop and racking up fouls on opposing defenders. It gets the locals into the bonus earlier and forces key opposing starters to the bench. In December, Carter has become much more consistent in attacking the rim, averaging 6.6 free throw attempts per game. The only time he’s taken fewer than three was in the rout of Golden State on Sunday, when he played just 26 minutes.
Whereas Carter’s free-throw decline in Toronto was a result of him choosing not to give 100%, his inconsistency this season seems to owe more to the Nets working out the kinks in their offense. This is the first time in Carter’s pro career that he has to share being the main option, and the Nets spent the early part of the season looking as if they hadn’t figured out the spacing and priorities for their offensive sets (it’s rare for any team to have such a wealth of perimeter threats).
But now they look settled in, with Carter operating on the left flank, Jefferson on the right, Kidd controlling the ball from the top of the arc to the elbow. With passes swinging through the much-improved Krstic at the high post, every player finally seems to be comfortable in his role. Each of the Nets last three victims – L.A., Denver, and Golden State – rank in the top half of the league in Defensive Efficiency, yet the Nets scored at will, amassing 332 points in the three games. With the offense clicking on a higher gear and the defense returning to form, New Jersey seems poised to make good on its lofty expectations.