Nets’ Playoff Push Defies Belief

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The New York Sun

Former Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Mora said it best: “Playoffs … Are you kidding me?”


(Pause for bitter-beer face.)


“Playoffs!?!”


That’s how I feel about the Nets right now. Let’s be frank, Lawrence: Your team has absolutely no business making the playoffs. The Nets are the second-worst offense in basketball. They’ve allowed 252 more points than they’ve scored, putting them in the company of the Golden States and Portlands of the world. Their star point guard has spent much of the year trying to get himself traded, while their leading scorer went down with an injury months ago. In short, the Meadowlands hardly reek of success.


But the standings tell a different story. New Jersey, despite all its ups and downs, is just 2 1/2 games behind Philadelphia for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. That number is likely to be reduced to 1 1/2 after tonight, when the Nets host the Clippers while the Sixers face near-certain defeat in Phoenix.


That means if the Nets can beat Philadelphia in the Meadowlands on April 17, they only need to make up half a game over the rest of the month. Beating the Sixers in April would also clinch the first tie-breaker, head-to-head record, in New Jersey’s favor.


The Nets’ schedule in the other nine games isn’t particularly easy – they’ll be facing several other Eastern teams jostling for playoff position down the stretch. But the 76ers’ slate is murderous. With Dallas, Cleveland, Washington, Miami, and two games against Boston on tap, Philly could easily finish the season 4-8 or worse. So if the Nets can eke out a 6-5 mark over these final 11 games, they’ll probably march into the postseason.


Nor is Philadelphia the only team that looks ripe for the picking. Indiana currently holds the no. 7 spot, but the Pacers’ upcoming schedule is even more arduous than the Sixers’. Indiana’s final 12 games include two against the Heat, two against Washington, one against Cleveland, and one against New Jersey.


If the Nets win that showdown in Conseco Fieldhouse on April 13 (and again, they would have the tie-break in their favor), the Pacers would be clearly in their sights. Not only does Indy’s schedule contain no gimmes, but the Pacers are playing without their three best players. Ron Artest, of course, is still in the penalty box for his role in the Malice at the Palace, and Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley are gone, too.


O’Neal separated his shoulder and currently is on the Richard Jefferson plan, hoping to recover in time for the playoffs should his team make it that far. Meanwhile, Tinsley has battled a mysterious foot problem for weeks and isn’t expected back any time soon.


All of which means the Pacers could easily go 3-9 or 4-8 against any sort of competition, let alone the challenging slate that awaits them. If so, New Jersey would need a 6-5 or 7-4 finish to pass Indiana. The other team between the Nets and a playoff spot, Orlando, faces the most difficult schedule of the group, playing nine of 12 contests against teams above .500. Potentially, the Nets could be the East’s no. 7 seed, which would allow them to sidestep a first-round date with Shaq and the Heat in favor of a rematch with the Pistons.


Of course, it won’t matter how the Pacers and Sixers do if the Nets don’t win some games of their own. And that’s the tricky part. As I’ve mentioned at other points during the year, the Nets are an unbelievably bad offensive team, and they’ve actually gotten worse over the past month. You would think a team with Vince Carter would be immune to prolonged scoring droughts, but since Jefferson went out, the rest of the Nets have played so poorly that they more than offset Carter’s brilliance.


I use a tool called Offensive Efficiency, which measures how many points a team scores for each 100 possessions, to evaluate a team’s offense. By this measure, the Nets are barely holding off the Hornets for the distinction of being basketball’s worst. The Nets score a meager 96.6 points per 100 possessions, barely edging out New Orleans’s 96.5. By comparison, the league average is 102.7, and even crummy teams like the Warriors (100.0) and Blazers (99.7) are miles ahead of New Jersey.


So how have the Nets stayed in the race despite such an anemic offense? They’ve been darn lucky, that’s how. The massive disparity between how many points the Nets have scored and how many they’ve allowed is in line with 25-46. They are 33-38 instead, solely because they’ve been fortunate in close games.


The Nets are a scintillating 11-5 in games decided by five points or less; most teams split them or come very close. Conversely, in games decided by 11 points or more, the Nets are a disturbing 8-23. In other words, the Nets have been blown out of the building in most of their losses, while many of their wins have been nail biters. And don’t think the Nets’ point deficit has gotten better since the Carter trade. Since Carter’s first game as a Net, the team is 24-22 despite being outscored by 103 points. That pattern is a poor prescription for long-term success: Points scored and points allowed are the building blocks of victories, a reality no team has escaped for long.


Fortunately for the Nets, they don’t need their good luck to last much longer – just three more weeks. But it’s distressing that they’ve needed so much good fortune just to get to this point. Based on the difference between points scored and points allowed, all 11 of the Nets’ remaining opponents are superior – including the Clippers and, yes, the Knicks.


So while the opportunity persists for New Jersey to steal a playoff spot, color me dubious. The Nets probably will make the postseason if they win six of their final 11 games, which sounds easy enough. But look beyond the standings to the underlying numbers and it becomes apparent that the Nets would need another serving of an already heaping dose of good fortune to have any chance of going 6-5 or better down the stretch.


Playoffs? Not this year.


The New York Sun

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