NFL MIDSEASON REPORTS – AFC EAST

Many NFL analysts saw 2006 as the year the New England Patriots would finally stumble, passed atop their division by Daunte Culpepper-led Miami Dolphins. But Culpepper lost his job, the Dolphins collapsed, and the AFC East is once again New England and the Three Dwarves.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6–2)

Last year at midseason, the Patriots were struggling at 5–3, with possibly the league’s worst defense against the pass. But an easy schedule and the lack of real competition in the division still made them virtual shoo-ins for the postseason.

Once again, the Patriots have an easy schedule and no real competition in the division. Once again, pass defense is this team’s weakness. But this year’s Patriots are much better when they run and against the run, which makes them a far more viable Super Bowl contender.

New England’s running back tandem of veteran Corey Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney has been inconsistent, dominating some games and disappearing in others. Still, that’s better than last year’s running game that disappeared from the moment the season began. Tom Brady was supposed to have big problems after losing both of his leading receivers from last year, but he’s settled in nicely with new starters Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell.

The biggest problem for the defense is inconsistency against the pass. The Patriots gave up 7.4 net yards per pass attempt in their first three games, improved to 5.5 net yards per pass attempt in the next four games, and then were completely humiliated by Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison on Sunday. Safety Rodney Harrison left the game early with a shoulder injury, and if he misses time, the Patriots have a problem. Harrison’s season-ending knee injury was the main reason why the pass defense collapsed in 2005.

Nevertheless, the Patriots are two games ahead of their division rivals, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NFL, and it’s hard to imagine them not winning the AFC East for the fifth time in six years.

NEW YORK JETS (4–4)

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Gang Green, devoted to getting experience for the young offensive linemen, finding out if Chad Pennington had anything left, and figuring out which current Jets could fit into Eric Mangini’s 3–4 defensive scheme. But the Jets don’t seem like a rebuilding team, and a 4–4 record has some Jets fans thinking about the possibility of the playoffs.

But the Jets are simply not that good. All four wins have come by a touchdown or less, and the four victims have a combined record of 9–23. Close losses to Indianapolis and New England look much closer than they really were, thanks to fortuitous plays like Justin Miller’s kickoff return touchdown against the Colts and the 71-yard Jerricho Cotchery “knee never touched the grass” touchdown against the Patriots.

The defense has been awful against both the run and the pass, but there are good things happening with the offense. Wide receivers Laveranues Coles and Cotchery are having excellent seasons, and Leon Washington seems to have finally emerged as the starting running back. Early in the season, Pennington seemed to be back to his preinjury form, when he was one of the top young quarterbacks in the league.

Alas, the Jets offense has slowed down in October despite the poor competition, and it has trouble establishing itself early in games, ranking 26th in first-quarter performance. Combine those two trends with a few other indicators, and our second-half statistical projection expects the Jets offense to collapse, taking their season with it.

BUFFALO BILLS (3–5)

When the Bills played the Patriots close in Week 1, then beat the Dolphins in Week 2, there was some talk that they might be the surprise playoff team of 2006. Since then, the Bills have disappeared, probably the most ignored team in the NFL outside of upstate New York. If a team beats Green Bay 24–10 at home, does it make a sound?

There are reasons for Bills fans to be optimistic. Buffalo’s top rookie, safety Donte Whitner, was decried as a reach on draft day, but he’s been impressive while starting every game but one. The Bills still can’t stop the run, but the pass rush is strong. For the third straight season, the Bills have superb special teams. And quarterback J.P. Losman can best be described as “inoffensive,” which is a step above last year, when he was awful.

The running game was the one part of the Buffalo offense that was really clicking, but that’s in danger of decline after running back Willis McGahee suffered a broken rib against Green Bay. The offensive line isn’t good enough to make a second-stringer like AnthonyThomas into a consistently productive back.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (2–6)

The trade for Daunte Culpepper was supposed to solidify Miami’s quarterback position, and in the preseason, Culpepper seemed to be feeling no adverse effects from last season’s ACL injury. But once the season began, Culpepper became tentative and inaccurate; when he went to scramble, he discovered his once-great mobility was gone. After four games, Culpepper was pulled for failed former Detroit quarterback Joey Harrington, who has actually been worse (Culpepper has an NFL passer rating of 77.0, Harrington 64.6).

The running game was also struggling during the first few games of the season, but thanks to some adjustments — particularly the return of last year’s starting left tackle, Damion McIntosh — promising young running back Ronnie Brown finally has some holes to run through. Brown had 278 yards and just 3.3 a carry during the first five games of the year, but over the past three has 343 yards and 5.2 yards a carry.

Even the defense was struggling somewhat until Sunday’s shocking upset of Chicago. The secondary is a mixture of inexperienced youngsters and interchangeable, faceless free agents, while the talented front seven is beginning to show its age. Linebacker Zach Thomas, in particular, is much slower this season.

Perhaps the worst part of the Dolphins’ disappointing season is that the future seems no better. They are locked into Culpepper’s big contract, there isn’t much young talent other than Brown and a couple of second-string defenders with potential, and all those defensive stars will just be one year older in 2007.

Projected order of finish: New England (12–4), New York Jets (6–10), Buffalo (6–10), Miami (5–11).

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.