New Knicks Set Sights On 2007
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It’s an old adage among New York sports fans: You can’t rebuild in New York. With that in mind, Knicks President Isiah Thomas tried every available tweak during his first 14 months on the job, only to discover a more recent adage: You can’t turn an old, capped out team into a winner.
Last week’s trade of Nazr Mohammed and Jamison Brewer to the Spurs for Malik Rose and two first-round draft picks marked Thomas’s shift into rebuilding mode. While Knicks fans can take some small pleasure in the team’s three-game winning streak, it’s also important to have an appropriate timetable to judge their team’s progress. It looks to me as if the team could contend by 2007.
The New Knicks can rebuild around three major assets : an All-Star-caliber point guard, a handful of young players who should be in their primes two years from now, and five first-round draft picks in the next three drafts. The team will need to use all three assets wisely – in particular, young talents Jamal Crawford, Michael Sweetney, and Trevor Ariza must correct some major flaws in their games – but all the pieces are in place for a Broadway revival.
Though Stephon Marbury may have painted a target on his back with his ridiculous “I’m the best point guard” comment, he remains an elite player. He ranks among the NBA leaders with 21.1 points per game, and his 8.2 assists per contest rank third in the league. Most important for the Knicks’ long-term plans, Marbury is 28, and will still be in the late stages of his prime on opening day, 2007-08.
The most important issue facing the Knicks with Marbury is preserving him; in each of the last four seasons, he’s averaged more than 39 minutes per game. The team needs to limit his minutes so that there’s still tread on his tires when they’re ready to contend again. That will mean signing a decent backup point guard this coming off-season; the Knicks are so thin in the backcourt that Isiah is the fourth-best guard in the organization right now.
The Knicks could also give increased point duties to Crawford if they can reign in his propensity for taking bad shots and trying foolishly ambitious passes. His shooting percentage of 39.9% is borderline acceptable, but it would improve markedly if he learned to pass on the 20-foot heaves early in the shot clock, a feature of his game that exasperated his former employers in Chicago.
As Crawford’s 5.1 assists per game last season showed, he has some point skills, but he needs to make better decisions with the ball. A positive sign came in Saturday night’s rout of the Pacers, when coach Herb Williams benched his starting two-guard after he made two foolish passes in traffic. In the second half, Crawford worked within the offense, saving his only flashy pass for a three-on-one fast break with the team already up by 14. To the surprise of veteran Crawford observers, he followed that showing up by staying in the design of the offense during Monday night’s win against the Lakers.
Another positive development for the Knicks is Sweetney’s graduation into the starting lineup following last week’s trade of center Nazr Mohammed. Sweetney’s per-40-minute averages of 17 points and nine rebounds argue that he’s been spending way too much time on the bench; he is overmatched playing center, though.
Many power forwards can play the pivot in a pinch – Kurt Thomas has done it for full seasons – but the 6-foot-8-inch Sweetney is a tad undersized for a power forward and he struggles defensively when asked to guard the opposing center. Unfortunately, that’s what the Knicks have asked him to do repeatedly, and he’s lost playing time to foul trouble. The Knicks need to prioritize with an eye toward their future, and that means moving Kurt Thomas back to full-time duty at center and allowing Sweetney to become comfortable as a power forward.
I don’t know how Ariza plans to spend his summer vacation, but it should include a daily regimen of 500 jump shots and perhaps a stint at Attack Athletics, the Chicago-based facility where many pros go in the off-season to hone their skills.
Although the rookie forward is shooting 42.8% from the floor, he’s not a threat from medium distance and passes on many good open shots. Teams have begun sagging off him when he has an open jump shot. But Ariza is only 19, and his defense and energetic style of play are already important assets for the Knicks; once his offense comes around, he’ll rank as one of the best second round picks in the league.
That the Knicks were able to nab Ariza with the 43rd pick of the draft bodes well for the future. Not only will they have five first-round picks in the next three drafts, but their second-round picks will likely be in the first 40 overall choices. Isiah Thomas has already done well to visit Europe on a scouting mission, and with the NBA game getting faster and more offensive-oriented thanks to changes in the way hand checking is called, Thomas will need to focus more on quick, lithe players than slow-footed bruisers.
By drafting wisely and developing their current young players, Isiah’s rebuilding plan should come to fruition by the fall of 2007.The next two years should be different for the Knicks, since the things they do badly – acquiring veteran talent, in particular – are no longer an option, whereas the things they’ve done surprisingly well, like drafting, will be their focus.
Allan Houston’s $100 million contract will come off the books in 2007, as will expensive deals for Shandon Anderson, Maurice Taylor, and Jerome Williams; Penny Hardaway’s and Tim Thomas’s pacts fall off the ledger in the spring of 2006.That’s a total of $74 million in salaries that the Knicks will be freed of.
Even taking account of future contracts for Sweetney and Ariza, it’s likely that the Knicks will be under the luxury-tax threshold within three years. Thus, entering the 2007-08 season, they will have a young nucleus, a superstar still in his prime, and the cap flexibility to make deals in case any other stars suddenly become available on the cheap. At that point, the Knicks will have a team that will contend for the title for several seasons. It will be worth the wait.