NFC Supremacy at Stake in Dallas

In normal seasons — and normal here is defined as any year in which the 2007 New England Patriots aren’t playing — tonight’s Green Bay Packers–Dallas Cowboys match would be hailed as the regular season game of the year. In fact, it might have been billed as the regular season game of this century. Instead, it looks to be little more than an entertaining way of passing a Thursday night — at least for a while.PACKERS (10–1) at COWBOYS (10–1)Tonight, 8 p.m., NFL NetworkWell, it is a little more important than that. The winner of this game should prove to be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl and the leading candidate for the unofficial title of Second-Best Team in the NFL. The relevant statistics of the two teams, as I see them, are in the chart at rightIn the most important stats, the teams are relatively close: It boils down to the Packers outscoring their opponents by 111 points, while the Cowboys have outscored theirs by 137. But it’s really not that close. The big difference in the two teams, stated simply, is that Dallas had to play New England and Green Bay didn’t. Subtract all of the numbers from Dallas’s 48–27 defeat at the hands of New England on October 14 and replace them with those of an average NFL team, and the gap between the Cowboys and Packers grows wider.Let’s start with running. The Packers are actually a little better than their overall figure of 3.6 yards per rush would indicate, particularly when Ryan Grant and DeShawn Wynn carry the ball — those two have combined for 697 yards on 157 carries for a 4.4 yards per rush average. But the Cowboys’ Marion Barber alone trumps them with 715 yards and a 4.9 average, and in a game like this, Barber is likely to get extra carries. That’s bad news for Green Bay, which has a mediocre run-stopping defense (4.0 a try). Dallas, allowing just 3.6, has one of the best rush defenses in the league. So, the Cowboys will win the battle on the ground.But the war, as with all big NFL match-ups, will be decided in the air, and this is where the Cowboys have an even bigger edge. Lost in all of the publicity of Brett Favre’s supposed comeback is the fact that Tony Romo is a much more efficient passer and has actually thrown seven more TD passes than Favre, 29 to 22. In the most important passing stat, yards per throw, Romo tops Favre by a wider margin, 8.65 to 7.90, and Romo’s 8.65 is considerably higher than Favre has ever averaged in a season. In fact, for all the hype over Tom Brady’s fantastic season, Romo trails his AFC rival by only a slender margin in yards per attempt, 8.65 to Brady’s 8.77.Both teams deal with the pass at about the same level of effectiveness. The Packers’ vastly improved offensive line has allowed just 14 sacks on Favre, while the Cowboys have given up 16 on Romo. Green Bay has sacked opposing quarterbacks 32 times while the Dallas defense has recorded 30 on their opponents. The Cowboys have a considerable edge over the Packers on defensive interceptions, 16 to 10. But, again, what these figures don’t take into account is the Cowboys’ one disastrous outing, against the Patriots. Brady’s numbers against the Cowboys were unworldly, 31 of 46 for 388 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. Subtract that game, and the Cowboys’ pass defense has given up 6.13 yards per throw, fourth best in the league and considerably better than the Packers’ pass defense.So what does this all add up to? It means that on defense, Dallas should be able to pretty much shut down the substandard Green Bay running game and force Favre into dangerous third-and-long situations — dangerous because Favre is, at this point in his career, about as mobile as Y.A. Tittle. The Cowboys, with a more balanced attack, should be better able to pick and choose their plays. When they do have to pass, Romo is not only an accomplished scrambler, but proficient at using his mobility to give his receivers time to break free downfield.Though Romo might be the best young quarterback in the NFC, his reputation as a big gamer still suffers from the infamous snap in this past January’s wild-card game against Seattle — and the thrashing his team took against the Patriots a few weeks ago didn’t boost his stock, either. But the first was a fluke, and the second was hardly something he needed to apologize for, unless his critics are saying he should have doubled up and played some pass defense. On the flip side, Favre has never exactly been Bart Starr in big games. Outside of the Packers’ postseason run through the Super Bowl in the 1996 season, he has won just 8 of 17 postseason games and hasn’t really won a big game in nearly four years.Romo and the Cowboys should use this game to pole-vault over Favre and the Packers and secure their position as the no. 1 seed in the NFC. After that, it’s a question of how much steam they can build up for a rematch with New England.The game should be close for the first 20–25 minutes. Then Dallas will break ahead on a long pass play and run away with it by the end of the third quarter.Cowboys 38 – Packers 20Mr. Barra is the author of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”

NFC Supremacy at Stake in Dallas

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