There are nine teams currently in the NFC playoff picture, and seven of them – including the Giants – are separated by a single game. On Sunday, four NFC playoff contenders face each other in two games of crucial importance, both for themselves and for Big Blue. In the East, a Cowboys win combined with a Giants loss lifts Dallas into a tie for first place. A Redskins win combined with a Giants loss leaves Washington and Dallas one game behind New York.

DALLAS COWBOYS (8-5) AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS (7-6)
(Sunday, 4:15 p.m., FOX)

It was the second Monday night of the season, four minutes remained in the game, and the Dallas Cowboys held a commanding 13-0 lead over archrival Washington. As the clock ticked under 4:00, Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell hit Santana Moss with a 39-yard touchdown strike.Sixty-eight ticks of the clock later, Brunell hit Moss in stride on a 70-yard bomb and the Skins took home a shocking 14-13 victory.

Thirteen weeks later, Moss’s 1167 receiving yards rank him second in the NFL, but Washington’s other wideouts have been dismal: David Patten,now out for the year, averaged just 24 yards per game. His replacement, Taylor Jacobs, has averaged 17 yards in four starts. Once opponents learned that Moss was Washington’s only reliable wide receiver, his output dropped in half: After averaging 124 yards per game during the first seven weeks, Moss is at 61 yards per game during the last seven.

The Redskins should instead have more success with running back Clinton Portis and tight end Chris Cooley. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system – which breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – Dallas ranks 22nd in the league against the run, and 26th defending passes to tight ends.

When Dallas gets the ball, the situation is reversed: The Cowboys have a strong passing game but have struggled to run the ball behind an injuryriddled offensive line.That’s good news for the inconsistent Washington run defense, which has been terrible against the league’s best running games – 852 combined yards given up to the Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, and Broncos – but has allowed barely three yards per carry in nine other games.

Cowboys quarterback Drew Bledsoe should have time to throw the ball – Washington has just 23 sacks, 27th in the NFL – and find his favorite target, Terry Glenn, who had 157 yards and a touchdown when these teams first met. It helps that Redskins cornerbacks Walt Harris, Carlos Rogers, and Shawm Springs appear on the injury report, though all three will likely play.

These bitter rivals have each seen their share of strange finishes and close games during the season. Both teams have had seven games decided by four points or less and 10 games decided by seven points or less.The only safe prediction for this game is that it will be close.

ATLANTA FALCONS (8-5) AT CHICAGO BEARS (9-4)
(Sunday, 8:30 p.m., FOX)

When the Steelers beat the Bears 21-9 in Pittsburgh last Sunday, they were not just the first team in nine weeks to beat Chicago; they were also the first team in nine weeks to make Chicago’s defense look mortal.

Suddenly the Bears were having trouble tackling, allowing huge gains on screen plays and 190 yards on the ground. Once Pittsburgh secured a lead, running back Jerome Bettis took the ball and bowled over the smaller, speedier Chicago defenders.

Atlanta has built its offense around the running game, leading the league with 5.3 yards per carry. Like the Steelers, they feature a running back tandem with a smaller agile back (Warrick Dunn) and a big bruiser (T.J. Duckett). That sounds like a recipe for success after Pittsburgh beat Chicago with a heavy dose of the run, but before that game, Chicago had allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. It is more likely that the Bears are the team that stopped the run in the first 12 games, not the team that allowed Pittsburgh to run in the 13th.

Atlanta’s running game is not just about running backs, of course; it also features the greatest running quarterback of all time, Michael Vick. But the Bears have allowed just 45 rushing yards to quarterbacks all season, less than two yards per carry. Both figures are the lowest in the NFL. According to DVOA,the three most valuable rushing quarterbacks per carry, other than Vick, have been the Saints’ Aaron Brooks, Minnesota’s Daunte Culpepper,and Baltimore’s Anthony Wright. The Bears held these three players to a combined 20 yards on just six carries.

Vick’s will also be restricted by the bruised ribs that caused him to leave Monday’s victory over New Orleans. And it is worth noting that the two defenses that held Vick to the fewest rushing yards this year were the Buccaneers and Jets, two teams built around strong linebackers – just like the Bears.

When Vick passes, he prefers to pass to his tight ends, particularly the strong and agile Alge Crumpler. Compared to Atlanta, only two teams, Washington and Tennessee, have thrown a higher percentage of passes to their tight ends. But DVOA ranks Chicago fourth in the league defending tight ends. While the average tight end reception goes for 10.5 yards, the average tight end reception against Chicago goes for just 8.3 yards. The difference is especially notable on first down, when less than 50% of tight end passes against Chicago are completed (compared to a league average of 67%).

These strong matchups on defense, of course,do nothing to solve Chicago’s real problem – the terrible play of rookie quarterback Kyle Orton, who averages just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Luckily, Orton may not have to throw much at all. With sixth-year running back Thomas Jones having a career year, the Bears rank sixth in the league with 4.5 yards per carry. Atlanta allows 4.8 yards per carry, more than any other team except Houston and St. Louis.

Another point in Chicago’s favor: the temperature Sunday night is forecast to be in the teens, and the Falcons are used to playing indoors. Historically, homefield advantage is about 15% greater than usual when a dome team visits a cold-weather team in November or later, although Vick did pull off one of the great cold-weather upsets in NFL history when the Falcons won in Green Bay three years ago in the playoffs.

The Bears need a win to keep the lead in the race for a first-round bye; if the Falcons lose, they effectively drop out of the playoff race altogether. The Bears won’t be able to stop Dunn and Vick completely. But the Falcons may not be able to stop Jones at all.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.