NFL’s Best Units Clash in Week 8

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There will be a lot attention paid this week to undefeated New England’s visit to Pittsburgh, as well as the matchup between the Giants and Vikings. But this week also offers two games of particular interest in which a top AFC team takes on a top NFC team. What makes these games worth watching is that they pit one team’s strength against the other team’s corresponding strength: The Baltimore defense against the Philadelphia offense, and the Denver running game against the Atlanta front seven.


BALTIMORE (4-2) AT PHILADELPHIA (6-0)


This game – not the Pittsburgh-New England contest – may actually be the premier contest of Week 8 in the NFL, because it is such a strong matchup of opposites. Baltimore’s defense is allowing only 4.4 yards per play, second in the NFL, and Philadelphia’s offense is gaining 6.4 yards per play, also second in the NFL.


A stalwart Baltimore defense is nothing new, and neither is poor performance from their passing attack. The difference between this year’s squad and the one from 2003 is the running game – but not in the way one might expect. Even though Jamal Lewis broke the 2000-yard barrier last season, this year’s Raven rushing attack has been more effective on a play-by-play basis, with more success on third downs and no fumbles over the first six games. And there’s been no drop-off from Lewis, suspended for pleading guilty in a drug case, to Chester Taylor, who will start on Sunday. Taylor is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, while Lewis is averaging 4.7.


But with Pro Bowl left tackle Jonathan Ogden out with a hamstring injury and Lewis on the sidelines, the Ravens may come out with a game plan that shifts their focus from the run to the pass. This would be a mistake. Run defense is the Eagles one glaring weakness.


The Ravens gain more yards per carry running right than running left thanks to a blocking scheme in which Ogden and guard Edwin Mulitalo create a cutback hole for Lewis; this week, they’ll want to concentrate on more conventional blocking for runs right and then mix in runs left if the Eagles overcompensate because of Ogden’s absence.


So far this season the Eagles offense has successfully mixed the run and the pass with Brian Westbrook emerging as an every down back. But if Westbrook is slowed by a chest contusion suffered last week, the Eagles will have to pass more and run less. They won’t be able to favor the screen pass they love so much, since Westbrook is hurt and Ray Lewis eats pass-catching running backs for breakfast.


So watch out for the tight ends, as both Chad Lewis and L.J. Smith have been effective this season and the Ravens are comparatively week against plays to the tight end.


There is also an emotional element to this game. Eagles wideout Terrell Owens has spent the last week sniping at the team that acquired and then un-acquired him during the offseason. A similar subplot existed last week when Owens faced his former quarterback Jeff Garcia. The difference is that Garcia and Owens were never on the field together, and Garcia can’t hit Owens. The same is not true of the Baltimore defense.


***


ATLANTA (5-2) AT DENVER (5-2)


A week ago, both of these teams were 5-1, and this game was set up as a battle between the Denver rushing attack – once again ascendant after plugging Reuben Droughns in at tailback – and the Atlanta rush defense, ranked number one in the NFL. Then both teams lost.


The Broncos were embarrassed by the hapless Cincinnati Bengals, 23-10. But at least they kept it close through the first half; the Falcons were pummeled by Kansas City 56-10, and in the process saw their previously impervious rush defense disintegrate as Priest Holmes and his backup Derrick Blaylock ran for four touchdowns apiece.


So the question of this game is: Which Atlanta rush defense will show up? The one that collapsed against Kansas City, or the one that led the league over the first six games? Making things more interesting is the fact that Atlanta’s offensive line coach, Alex Gibbs, is the man who created the famous Broncos run blocking system during nine seasons in Denver.


As fascinating as the schizophrenic Atlanta defense might be, the Falcons will have a hard time winning this game even if they return to their previous run-stopping form. Nearly everything else about this game points to a mismatch.


Denver ranked higher than Atlanta on both offense and defense after six weeks, and last week’s disaster made the gap even larger. Denver’s offense has outgained opponents by 124 yards per game, while Atlanta has been outgained by 39 yards per game. Michael Vick has had major troubles adapting to the new offense installed by coordinator Greg Knapp, and with Champ Bailey covering his main receiver this week, there’s no reason to think it’s going to get any easier.


The one advantage Atlanta has over Denver is on special teams, particularly on punts. Atlanta’s only touchdown against Kansas City came on a punt return by the underrated Allen Rossum. Over the past two seasons, Atlanta has had the NFL’s third most valuable punt return unit, while Denver’s punt coverage unit has been the NFL’s fourth-worst this season and the worst in 2003.


The likely storyline for an Atlanta upset involves the run defense returning to top form, forcing Denver into a lot of third-and-long situations and punts. Rossum can then gain the sort of field position that gives Jay Feely a chance to kick long field goals and Vick a chance to bust big highlight-reel touchdown scampers.



Mr Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.


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