1 MINT SLEWLEP

TRAINER: W. Robert Bailes
JOCKEY: Alan Garcia
MORNING LINE ODDS: 30-1

His one try around two turns was on the tight little bull ring inner track at Aqueduct, and he didn’t like it much, finishing 7 1/4 lengths up the track in fifth. There’s not a lot of horses in the gate here, and clearly, it’s nice to run a horse in the Preakness, so why not. But it must be said that if he’s going get anywhere near the money tomorrow, it’s going to take more than the so-called rally that moved him from seventh to fifth in his last race, the Withers.

2 XCHANGER

TRAINER: Mark Shuman
JOCKEY: Ramon Dominguez
MORNING LINE ODDS: 15-1

The winner of the Federico Tesio is typically one of the horses waiting to take on the Derby winner when he gets to Pimlico. There have been some great horses that got to the Preakness this way, and they’ve had some real impact. This one seems to have changed his running style over winter break and returned as a front-running speed horse. This will have serious consequences for Hard Spun, as Xchanger will either be in front of him (which Hard Spun can’t handle) or will be pressuring him (which he won’t like). Can he hang on to the lead when the closers come up on him? Only if the racing gods are very, very happy with trainer Mark Shuman. The thing to consider here is whether or not you believe he can hold on for a piece of the money.

3 CIRCULAR QUAY

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY: John Velazquez
MORNING LINE ODDS: 8-1

If Circular Quay is the horse we once thought he was, he is poised on the precipice of something big. Too long a layoff going into the Derby ended badly — imagine it, even psychologically it’s an impossible transition from training and hanging around in your stall to Derby day. It’s like walking into Carnegie Hall and sitting down at the Steinway after noodling around in your living room. Todd Pletcher seems to think the horse is there, and his assignment of Johnny V indicates that this is where the Pletcher barn is putting their hopes, and certainly this race goes to the closers.

4 CURLIN

TRAINER: Steve Asmussen
JOCKEY: Robby Albarado
MORNING LINE ODDS: 7-2

It’s very weird to be calling a short-odds Preakness horse with three wins in four races precocious, but that’s what we’ve got. This one has remarkable potential as evidenced by his dismissal of chump rivals in his first three outings. Potentially a real threat. He once looked like a poor version of the wild, freakish, Bellamy Roadtypes we’ve recently seen, but it turns out he’s more like a really good horse that has never seen any competition. When he found himself on the big stage, at the Derby, he balked and then recovered to get up into the money. I would expect him to hit the board again, but I think that the stated strategy to get closer to the pace will defeat him.

5 KING OF THE ROXY

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY: Garret Gomez
MORNING LINE ODDS: 12-1

If this were a one-turn race, maybe 7 1 /2 furlongs, I’d be all over this one. He’s a close pace runner, and I expect him to be up in the race from the get-go. He’ll be one of the horses making a bid around the second turn and hooking up with one of the closers coming from deeper in the field. It’s hard to imagine him getting under the wire — if he couldn’t keep Tiago in back of him in the Santa Anita Derby, why would he be able to keep up with Street Sense?

6 FLYING FIRST CLASS

TRAINER: D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY: Mark Guidry
MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1

His maiden win at Oaklawn park in February was something else. He came back off that to chase Curlin in the Rebel. The line on the form for that race says that he “fell apart.” I won’t go so far as to say that I’ve never seen that, but it’s rare. It’s also vivid. He didn’t do much more in the Arkansas Derby. When they shortened him up and dropped him a class to run in the Derby Trial last month at Churchill, he took it. They had him where he belonged, and now they’ve jumped into the deep end of the pool again. The thing to note is that he won the Derby Trial by setting a blazing pace for all but the first call — they’ll try it again here, it won’t win the race, but we’ll get a visual correlative for what it looks like when a horse falls apart.

7 HARD SPUN

TRAINER: Larry Jones
JOCKEY: Mario Pino
MORNING LINE ODDS: 5-2

The Derby runner-up ran an impressive race setting the pace in Kentucky. He got loose out front, shook off the field, and kept enough gas in the tank to chase after Street Sense on the stretch. Some think he lugged in on the stretch, tired, others insist he was closing the rail; either way it wasn’t enough. Pino is on his home turf, which will change a little bit of the psychology, but here’s the thing: The Lane’s End, which he won, set up well for him. He was three paths out but it was a smooth trip, and the horses he passed were tired. Before that race, in the Southwest, he was back in the pack, running fifth when he made his move, and he launched himself into a good spot but failed to capitalize on it. It starts to look as if he doesn’t like to pass horses. Getting stuck at the throat-latch is no way to win. I just watched Street Sense pass him on the stretch at the Derby eight times in a row, and I didn’t see him dig in at all. Hoping for Street Sense to stumble is a bad bet.

8 STREET SENSE

TRAINER: Carl Nafzger
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel
MORNING LINE ODDS: 7–5

Street Sense will pay $2.10 on a $2 bet, the least a track can legally pay out on a favorite. It’s a hard way to make a living, but it beats losing. Doubters who think he got an easy trip in the Derby are looking for excuses. He beat the best horses in his generation twice — last year at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and two weeks ago at the Derby — and there’s no reason to think he won’t devour the horses of trainers and owners gutsy enough to come and challenge him again. He’s in top shape, he’s a powerhouse. The chink in the armor might be that both of those big victories were at Churchill. I wouldn’t gamble on the idea that he’s not going to like the environs. Nor do I want to think about whether or not he’ll also win the Belmont. We’re running one race Saturday, the Preakness, and the Preakness is his.

9 CPWEST

TRAINER: Nick Zito
JOCKEY: Edgar Prado
MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1

Zito and owner LaPenta are rolling the dice with this one. He’s a nice enough horse, and he’s earned some of his oats coming in second, which is where he’s finished in three of his five starts. There’s a scenario that puts him there again, and second in the Preakness is nothing to sneeze at. Then again, with a little imagination and a short field, there’s a scenario in which a sheep comes in second in the Preakness. That said, I think he’s a good closer, and he runs to improve his position in every race he enters, I think he’ll take advantage of the hot pace and finish in third.