NL East Hits Market, and Braves Come Out on Top

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The first thing to remember when evaluating trading season is that one should not become overly excited. A practiced air of casual disinterest, even nihilism, is the smartest position to take. For every Lou Brock-for-Ernie Broglio deal that nets a pennant for a contender, most deals fizzle and come to nothing. This is especially true of teams giving away major league stars for prospects. The one thing that Harry Frazee was right about was taking cash for Babe Ruth; even today, despite its relative weakness, the dollar is a better bet than a lefty from Class-A ball.

All of the above is a long way of saying that when we claim that the Mets and the Braves pillaged the American League for reinforcements yesterday, the use of the verb “pillage” is not hyperbole. Out of the seven players going, or rumored to be going, to the Royals, Twins, and Rangers, the only one whose name we’re likely to remember a year from now is that of the catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The rest serve roughly the same historic function in the deals as the little paper cup of coleslaw does for your pastrami sandwich.

That detail means little to the Mets or Braves now as they ramp up the competition in the National League East, although it might someday. For now, the question is whether the deals swung yesterday — with the Braves sending Saltamacchia and a handful of wishes to the Rangers for first baseman Mark Teixeira and journeyman lefty reliever Ron Mahay (and perhaps close on reliever Octavio Dotel); the Mets sending two very marginal prospects to Minnesota for second baseman Luis Castillo, and the Phillies acquiring starting pitcher Kyle Lohse from the Reds for a Double-A lefty, Matt Maloney — do anything to change the balance of power in the division.

The answer is yes, and all in favor of the Braves. Atlanta has gotten miserable production from its first basemen this season — NL gatekeepers are hitting .277 AVG/.359 OBA/.460 SLG this year. The players the Braves have played at the position, principally Scott Thorman, have hit .211/.270/.363. Those are numbers to make a team wonder if Doug Mientkiewicz is available. Teixeira can’t be expected to hit as well in Atlanta as he did in the hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. If he only reaches his career roadmarks of .264/.358/.489, the Braves will be greatly disappointed, but they will still succeed in invigorating an offense that has been just average in power production.

At first glance, the Braves are just as deficient in pitching as they are on offense, but remember that a pitching staff doesn’t have to be good, it just has to allow fewer runs than the offense is capable of scoring. In truth, Atlanta’s pitching has stabilized of late, putting up a 3.63 ERA over the last 30 games. When the best available starting pitcher is Kyle Lohse, John Schuerholz’s solution — add offense and bash away — may not be pretty, but it will get the job done. If the Braves are lucky, and their recent improvement in pitching sustains and is accompanied by a hot streak from Teixeira, the deal could boost them from their current 84-win pace to a 90-win pace.

The Mets’ acquisition of Luis Castillo will also have a major impact on the race — in favor of the Braves. Castillo’s only offense skill is hitting .300. He has no power, doesn’t walk a great deal, and no longer runs the bases. Many observers also argue that his best days on defense are behind him. In short, he’s a very dangerous player, one who maintains the illusion of being useful but really isn’t. Meanwhile, the Mets might have been set at the keystone. Ruben Gotay is not really a .350/.382/.504 hitter — few players are — but the four home runs the Mets have gotten from him are roughly four more than they are likely to get from Castillo. It’s always nice to have depth, and Castillo makes a better fallback at second than Damion Easley, but a fallback is all he should be.

The Mets have been a very average offensive team, and they can’t afford to offset the return of Moises Alou by deleting all power from another position. Heck, Alou has gone 1-for-11 since his return. We assume he’ll do better, but he is 40 years old and might not snap back to his career .301/.368/.515 form. If he does not, or falls far short of that, then power production on the rest of the field becomes that much more important.

As for the Phillies and Kyle Lohse, well, he’s a human male who has allowed 5.14 runs per nine innings in his career. That’s also roughly the number of runs per nine innings the Phillies will now score with Tad Iguchi playing instead of Chase Utley. They might break even in Lohse’s starts, assuming that he can do better than the 6.42 ERA he’s posted in road games this year. If not, you might even seen the Phillies rowing backward.

Still, unlike Castillo, it was a move worth trying.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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