NL West Gets Wild for Playoff Spots

With the Cubs on the spot, and on top of the NL Central, audiences are enjoying some easy drama, even if this September stretch itself has all of the grace and execution of a sack race, as each division team finds new ways not to lose pace.But there’s another great race in the Senior Circuit that is the NL West, where three teams have a real shot at winning the division. To make matters more interesting, all three face the threat of going home if they don’t also keep pace with the streaky Phillies in the wild-card race.Since the Phillies have seven of their last 13 games against the Nationals, the threat of two NL West teams being eliminated is very real indeed, meaning that the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres all face do-or-die situations with two weeks to play. Complicating matters is that while the D’backs play the Dodgers one last time next weekend, the second-place Padres won’t face their rivals on the schedule from here on out.Instead, the defending division champion Padres will attempt a third consecutive title by playing a four-game homestand against the hapless Pirates this week. Plus, they get to make a three-game trip in San Francisco against the last-place Giants next week.It’s after that point that the Padres are in a dangerous spot, especially if they haven’t built a lead for themselves. They travel to Milwaukee for a four-game set against a Brewers team that is certain to be either desperately staving off elimination or trying to clinch. Milwaukee also has the benefit of being the best home team in the NL (47–27 through Sunday). If the Padres are going to make a move, it needs to happen in the next 10 days — ideally with both the Dodgers and D’backs not getting a sweep from their lone head-to-head matchup, so that both teams lose ground to San Diego’s late-season defense for sole possession of first place.Contributing to the Padres’ hopes has been an offense that’s heated up down the stretch, scoring a half-run more since the All-Star break than before. Third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, shortstop Khalil Greene, and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez have all been hot in the last month, as has Milton Bradley in those too-infrequent instances when he’s been healthy enough to play. The problem has been in the rotation, where the absence of a reliable fifth man, and the late collapses of both Chris Young and Justin Germano, have cut into the sterling performances of Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux — the pair has a combined 9–2 in their last thirteen starts, against the 2–8 record and 6.8 runs allowed per nine in 15 starts from everyone else.Desperate to maintain his slender lead, Snakes manager Bob Melvin has gone to the whip down the stretch. He skips the fifth slot in the rotation every time that off days afford him the option, while not really picking between Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings in his hunt for a fourth spot preference. Sadly, that hasn’t papered over Randy Johnson’s absence for the remainder of the season. More dangerous still, the rotation is in danger of devolving into just ace Brandon Webb — and a platoon of people Melvin can’t count on. Livan Hernandez has taken beatings in his last matchups against the two pursuing teams, exacerbating concerns about his flagging stamina. Although Doug Davis ran off consecutive quality starts in the club’s last two series against the Padres (and has beaten them all three times out), the Cardinals and Dodgers have bombed him in his last two starts.All of this means there’s enough cause for concern that the team might decide to change gears and get creative. But will Melvin take risks? Probably not: In today’s 24-hour news cycle, most managers avoid anything that might generate controversy.Nevertheless, he could have Davis skip Wednesday’s scheduled start against the Giants to make sure that the veteran lefty opens next weekend’s series against the Dodgers. If he wanted to be truly daring, would Melvin decide to start Webb on three days’ rest once, or twice? Doing so could queue Webb up for an as-needed start on the season’s last day in Denver against the Rockies. Or, Webb could skip that start and Melvin could have his ace standing ready to start Game One of a NL Division Series if the Snakes have already clinched, or a onegame playoff if they’re tied.All of which conspires to put the Dodgers in an especially desperate situation. They needed to sweep the D’backs this weekend, but had to settle for two out of three. This was after winning two out of three from the Padres last week. The spilt milk issue with the Boys in Blue remains whether or not they waited too long to create full-time roles for homegrown talents such as Matt Kemp in the outfield and James Loney at first base; both are batting around .330 and slugging better than .520, but both had to sit while general manager Ned Colletti’s first-choice veteran options had to struggle and falter first.On some level, it’s remarkable that the Dodgers are still here. From leading the division at the end of July, they fell to 7.5 games back by August 19 because of a 3–11 run in the first two weeks of August.But the club’s shored-up rotation has managed to keep the team in contention, now that the young hitters have helped propel them into it. Sophomore Chad Billingsley has been particularly productive, delivering an ace-like four wins and 2.13 ERA in his last six starts, while striking out 36 in his last 38 IP. Lately-acquired veteran reinforcements have been generally good, as David Wells has delivered four winnable ballgames since coming off of waivers from San Diego, getting the win in three. Fellow waiver-bait Esteban Loaiza delivered one quality start victory against the Cubs, then struggled his last two times out. This is what they’ve been reduced to. But it may yet be good enough if they can keep up and sweep the D’backs next weekend.Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.

NL West Gets Wild for Playoff Spots

NL West Gets Wild for Playoff Spots

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