In the wake of last week’s shocking upsets of previously undefeated Virginia Tech and UCLA, only two teams control their own destiny in the Bowl Championship Series standings: no. 1 USC and no. 2 Texas. Alabama, third in the BCS standings, is undefeated but trails the top two by a significant margin in the human polls, and will need either the Trojans or Longhorns to lose in order to snatch a berth in the Rose Bowl. But before Alabama can worry about watching the out-of-town scoreboard, the Tide must take on a brutal closing schedule, beginning this week with BCS no. 7 LSU, one of a pair of critical games in the SEC.

If USC is to be upset, it might occur this week, as the Trojans visit Cal. The Bears were the last team to defeat USC, back in 2003, and dominated the Trojans everywhere but on the scoreboard last season. Texas has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, including this week’s game against Kansas.

NO. 7 LSU (7-1, 4-1) AT NO. 3 ALABAMA (9-0, 6-0)
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Alabama coach Mike Shula would be smart to screen the tape of last week’s Miami-Virginia Tech game for his team, because contest provides a valuable reminder for the Tide. A week ago, Virginia Tech was in Alabama’s position – on the outside looking in at the Rose Bowl picture, and concerned about blowing out a top opponent at home in order to impress poll voters. Instead, Miami routed the Hokies, rendering Virginia Tech’s concerns about the BCS standings moot.

Alabama has spent this week hearing how it has no chance to play for the national title unless it posts impressive victories against LSU and against Auburn next week. But considering the Tide is an underdog in this game despite playing at home, Alabama needs to worry about winning, by any margin.

Alabama’s dynamic offensive attack seemed to disappear with the injury to receiver/kick returner Tyrone Prothro in the Florida game earlier this year. Since then, Alabama has relied on its defense to win low-scoring affairs, including a 6-3 win over Tennessee on October 22. It’s not a bad option, considering the Tide’s defense allows just 8.2 points per game (tops in the nation) and 244.4 yards per contest (third nationally).

LSU is one of the nation’s more mercurial teams. Loaded with NFL-quality talent, the Tigers have struggled to put consistent periods of solid offensive play together. Like Alabama, LSU has been winning with defense of late, allowing just 8.3 points per game during its current six-game winning streak. The offense has bailed the team out at times, but has a disturbing propensity for turnovers. LSU has a turnover margin of -6 on the year, shocking for a team with a significant edge in talent nearly every week. So look for turnovers to be a factor in this game, as Alabama has fed on takeaways all year, 19 versus 12 giveaways.

LSU enjoys a huge advantage in the punt and return games, which means better field position in what shapes up as a defensive struggle. Alabama must hope it can flip the field by getting a turnover or two and that its young, banged-up offensive line can cope with LSU’s defensive front and give standout quarterback Brodie Croyle a chance to make some plays down the field. If not, the Tide could watch their conference and national-title dreams slip away, as the winner of this game will control its destiny in the SEC West.

NO. 20 AUBURN (7-2, 5-1) AT NO. 9 GEORGIA (7-1, 5-1)
(Saturday, 7:45 p.m., ESPN)

By the time Auburn and Georgia take the field Saturday evening, afternoon results could have shaped the SEC landscape to the point that one or both teams will have a lot less to play for than they believed heading in.

Auburn’s players and fans are in the strange position of rooting for archrival Alabama against LSU. An Alabama win gives both the Tide and Auburn control of their SEC West destiny (the teams meet next week at Auburn). But an LSU win spells major letdown potential for Auburn, as it will likely mean the end of Auburn’s quest to reach the SEC title game and a BCS bowl.

Georgia, which is taking the field for the first time since Florida wrecked its undefeated season two weeks ago, will be keeping a close eye on the Florida-South Carolina result earlier in the day. Should the Gators be upset by former coach Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks, Georgia will clinch the SEC East title before stepping on the field Saturday night. If Florida wins, Georgia can clinch the East by beating Auburn.

Assuming both teams have something to play for,this should be an excellent contest. This Georgia squad is much closer to full strength than the one that lost to Florida without starting quarterback D.J. Shockley, who returns from a knee injury to lead an offense that struggled mightily during his absence.

Auburn is likely to pound to ball with tailback Kenny Irons, hoping to keep young quarterback Brandon Cox out of difficult down-and-distance situations against the Bulldogs’ attacking defense.

It’s tough to evaluate Auburn’s strength because the Tigers have yet to beat a quality opponent this season. Georgia would provide a signature win for the season and set up a possible rematch in the SEC championship. This should be yet another SEC game that the defenses dominate.

NO. 1 USC (9-0, 6-0) AT CALIFORNIA (6-3,3-3)
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

Just another mismatch for the top-ranked Trojans, right?

As ESPN College Game Day analyst Lee Corso might say, “not so fast!” No Pac-10 team has given Pete Carroll’s club fits like Cal has the last two years. USC’s last defeat came at the hands of the Bears more than two years ago. If not for that 34-31 victory in triple overtime, USC might well be in pursuit of a third straight undisputed national title and close to challenging Oklahoma’s all-time record 47-game winning streak.

Last year’s Cal game was a near-miss for USC, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers, now of the Green Bay Packers, carved up the Trojans’ defense but misfired on the goal line with a chance to win the game in the final two minutes. The Bears miss Rodgers’s accuracy, as current starter Joseph Ayoob has been very inconsistent and is coming off a loss to Oregon in which he threw for less than 100 yards.

USC appears to have collectively exhaled after its narrow escape from Notre Dame at midseason. The Trojans haven’t been challenged since, winning three games by an average margin of 52-19. But past history in this series argues against USC coming in overconfident. If anything, Matt Leinart and company are likely to try to make an early statement against a Cal team that is not nearly as strong as its past two years’ editions.

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.