Everyone expected the Bears to repeat as NFC North champions, and everyone was right. Chicago is the class of the division and should have the title clinched by early December.

CHICAGO BEARS (7–1)

Sunday’s stunning loss to the Miami Dolphins doesn’t negate the great start to the Bears’ season, but it does point to some weaknesses on the team. Although this is quarterback Rex Grossman’s fourth season, injuries have hindered his development, and he has started only 15 games. That inexperience shows, especially when opposing teams blitz him. Grossman has already thrown 10 interceptions and fumbled five times, and teams will only start to pressure him more now that the Dolphins showed that tactic is the key to beating Chicago.

Tight end Desmond Clark might be the team’s offensive MVP, contributing 29 catches for 429 yards, and excellent blocking on running plays. Despite that blocking, though, the running backs have declined this year. Starter Thomas Jones averages 3.8 yards a carry, and his backup, Cedric Benson, 3.3.

The defense is great again this year. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher gets most of the credit, but the best player on the unit is outside linebacker Lance Briggs, who can do a little bit of everything: blitz, drop into pass coverage, and stop the run. The defense isn’t without its problems, though: Chicago will miss safety Mike Brown, who played very well early in the season but is out for the rest of the year with a foot injury.

The Bears have the best special teams in the league. Kicker Robbie Gould has yet to miss this year, punter Brad Maynard is expert at navigating the Soldier Field winds to drop his punts deep in opposing territory, and rookie return man Devin Hester has blazing speed, although he also has a tendency to fumble. The Bears’ schedule gets harder, with three straight East Coast trips to play the Giants, Jets, and Patriots, but this is the team to beat in the NFC.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4–4)

New coach Brad Childress thought he had solidified his running game when the Vikings added a back and two of the league’s most esteemed blockers in free agency, but Chester Taylor has been ineffective running behind guard Steve Hutchinson and fullback Tony Richardson. At first glance, Taylor appears to have solid numbers, with 173 carries for 708 yards, but Taylor pads his stats with a few long runs while failing to pick up the kinds of consistent gains that sustain drives. At his current rate, Taylor also seems likely to wear down by December: He has already carried the ball more times this year than he had in any previous season.

Minnesota leads the league in run defense with 552 yards allowed, thanks to two of its oldest players: Darren Sharper, the crafty strong safety who always seems to know where the offense is running, and Pat Williams, the enormous defensive tackle who can singlehandedly control the middle of the line. Unfortunately, the oldest player on the roster, quarterback Brad Johnson, taxes that defense by giving the ball away. Johnson has eight interceptions, twice as many as he threw last year.

Although the Vikings got off to a good start, they plummeted in the last two weeks, getting outscored 40–10 in back-to-back losses. They certainly won’t catch Chicago for the division title, and they most likely will fall short in the wild card race.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (3–5)

Green Bay hired head coach Mike McCarthy after a disastrous 2005 season in which quarterback Brett Favre threw 29 interceptions. McCarthy’s offense hasn’t lit up the scoreboard at Lambeau Field, but he has reined in Favre, who has thrown only seven picks this year. Rookie receiver Greg Jennings needs to develop better hands, but his speed has turned him into Favre’s favorite deep threat with nine catches of 20 or more yards.

The Packers also start two rookie guards, Jason Spitz and Daryn Colledge, and both are developing ahead of schedule. Thanks in large part to their blocking, running back Ahman Green is having a resurgence. After missing two games with a hamstring injury, Green has gained more than 100 yards and averaged more than five yards a carry in each of the last three games.

Although defensive end Aaron Kampman leads the league with 9.5 sacks, there isn’t much reason for optimism on defense. On one side of the field, cornerback Al Harris seems to have lost a step, and on the other side, free agent addition Charles Woodson has been an expensive disappointment. The special teams are even worse than the defense, especially punter Jon Ryan, who averages 34.8 net yards a punt, 30th in the league.

If this is Favre’s last season, he’ll go out playing much better football than he did last year. But he won’t go out a winner. The Packers have some good young players, but it will be at least 2007 before they’re in the playoffs.

DETROIT LIONS (2–6)

Team president Matt Millen added a new coach in Rod Marinelli, a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz, and a new quarterback in Jon Kitna, but the results in Detroit are the same as they have been since Millen took the job six years ago. The Lions have the worst record in football during Millen’s six-year tenure.

The team does have some talent. Receiver Roy Williams fits perfectly in Martz’s offense, showing the same bigplay ability that Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce showed in St. Louis when Martz was at the helm. And on defense, cornerback Dre Bly can shut down the other team’s best receiver, although the rest of the Detroit secondary gives up so many big plays that Bly is sometimes overlooked.

A few talented players aren’t enough to compensate for Millen’s many costly mistakes in the draft and free agency. Millen’s Lions will end the season in a familiar position: last place.

Projected order of finish: Chicago (13-3), Minnesota (9-7), Green Bay (6-10), Detroit (5-11)

Mr. Smith is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.