Entering the 2005 season, the AFC East looked like one of the NFL’s strongest divisions, with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Patriots leading the way, the Jets coming off a playoff season, Buffalo riding a great defense, and Nick Saban ready to turn Miami around.

Instead, these four have a cumulative record of 14-22, the worst in football. It’s almost impossible that an AFC East team could get a wild card berth, and a 9-7 record will probably be good enough to win the division.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5 -4 )

New England sits alone in first place and has beaten both second-place Buffalo and third-place Miami. The Patriots should win this division, but their chances of repeating as Super Bowl champions seem very slim.

Although Tom Brady is on pace for a career high in passing yards and a career low in interceptions, the Patriots are worse than they were last year at almost every position. Injuries have caused much of the team’s decline: The six defensive backs on injured reserve have garnered most of the attention, but losing running back Corey Dillon, left tackle Matt Light, and defensive lineman Richard Seymour for long stretches also has hurt the Patriots, and they lost center Dan Koppen for the season this week.

The healthy players on New England’s defense haven’t shown the discipline typical of Bill Belichick’s teams. New England has given up an NFL-high 11 plays of 40 or more yards.

Despite the injuries, the second-half schedule makes it virtually impossible that Buffalo could pass New England in the standings. The Patriots play only two more games against teams with winning records, while the Bills play five. The Patriots will be back in the playoffs, but not back in the Super Bowl.

BUFFALO BILLS (4 -5 )

Coach Mike Mularkey headed into the season with the goal of developing second-year quarterback J.P. Losman while keeping the Bills, who just missed the playoffs last year, in postseason contention.

But when Losman played terribly in the first four games, Mularkey shifted to Plan B. Kelly Holcomb started and Buffalo’s offense improved, though not by a lot. When Holcomb left Sunday’s game against Kansas City with an injury, Losman played well and led Buffalo to a victory. It’s unclear who will start the rest of the season.

The collapse of their defense, no. 1 in the league in DVOA last year, has shocked the Bills. Although cornerback Nate Clements continues to shut down the opponents’ top receiver (he held Tampa Bay’s All-Pro candidate Joey Galloway without a catch), the rest of the secondary has struggled. The run defense is terrible after losing Pat Williams, its best tackle, to free agency, and Takeo Spikes, its best linebacker, to a torn Achilles’ tendon in the third game.

Some good news should cheer Buffalo fans. Running back Willis McGahee is on pace for more than 1,500 yards even though opposing defenses don’t respect Buffalo’s passing game. Buffalo still has outstanding special teams, led by Terrence McGee, the best kickoff returner in the league. But the disappointing defense and questionable quarterbacks make this a .500 team at best.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3 -6 )

Nick Saban subscribes to the theory that winning football comes from running and stopping the run, and he’s doing both well this year. The Dolphins rank fourth in the league in DVOA against the run, with free agent defensive tackle Keith Traylor, rookie end Matt Roth, and rookie linebacker Channing Crowder making major contributions to the front seven. Rookie running back Ronnie Brown has played well, averaging 4.8 yards a carry, but for some reason Miami divides carries between Brown and Ricky Williams, even though Williams averages 3.1 yards a carry.

But the Dolphins’ losing record might convince Saban that he also has to find a quarterback. Gus Frerotte has shown this season why he hasn’t been a regular starter since 1997: He’s way too quick to throw passes away or dump them off to a running back at the first sign of a pass rush. That’s why he’s only been sacked 12 times, but also why he completes just 52.5% of his passes and averages less than six yards a pass.

The long-term prognosis is good for Saban’s Dolphins, as the running game and the defense appear headed in the right direction. But until he finds a quarterback better than Frerotte, Saban won’t win in Miami.

NEW YORK JETS (7 -2 )

Losing quarterback Chad Pennington and his backup, Jay Fiedler, hurt the Jets’ offense, but in the second half of the season, they will also miss center Kevin Mawae, tackle Jason Fabini, and tight end Chris Baker.

The Jets’ rushing attack struggled even before Mawae got hurt, and running back Curtis Martin appears to have lost a step, as so many backs do by age 32. Martin is averaging 3.4 yards a carry, the lowest mark of his 11-year career.

On defense, new addition Ty Law, who has stayed healthy and intercepted five passes, is one of the team’s few bright spots. But the Jets can’t stop the run at all after failing to find a replacement for departed tackle Jason Ferguson.

Although the Jets’ schedule gets easier down the stretch, with New Orleans, Oakland, and Buffalo all visiting the Meadowlands, they have all the makings of a last-place team. The biggest question left for the Jets is whether they can trust Pennington to return to health and play effectively next year. If they decide they can’t, by December a season that started with them thinking they could contend for the Super Bowl might end with them contending for USC stud Matt Leinart.

Projected order of finish: New England 9-7, Miami 7-9, Buffalo 7-9, Jets 4-12.

Mr. Smith is a writer for the statistical Web site FootballOutsiders.com.