Last year, the women’s NCAA tournament was as dramatic as any in memory. The Final Four included a veteran Tennessee team scraping by with one nail-biting, last-minute win after another, and a Cinderella Minnesota squad led by the spunky and charismatic Lindsay Whalen. Two-time defending champs UConn looked beatable despite superstar Diana Taurasi, and powerhouse newcomer LSU loomed as perhaps the best team of them all. Each team got to the Final Four with hard-fought wins, and the tournament built up to an exciting climax.

This year, the men have stolen the show. The women’s Final Four teams – Baylor, LSU, Michigan State, and Tennessee – arrive in Indianapolis via convincing victories in the earlier rounds. Only Tennessee had to sweat out its Elite Eight win, a 59-49 decision over Rutgers. But this weekend’s semifinal games showcase four very evenly matched opponents and classic games reminiscent of the men’s Elite Eight could well be the result.

TENNESSEE VS. MICHIGAN ST.
Sunday, 9:30 p.m.

This year’s Lady Vols team is a fine case study in why Pat Summitt is one of the greatest coaches in sports today. The team has lost three key players – Sidney Spencer, Sa’de Wiley-Gatewood, and Candace Parker – to season-ending injuries and they lack a superstar. Yet their poised approach, disciplined offense, and aggressive defense have carried them into the Final Four for the fourth straight year.

The no. 1 seeded Lady Vols have forced 78 turnovers in four tournament games, compared to only 63 of their own. They have out-rebounded their tournament opponents, 170-122. And after uncharacteristically bad performances from the free-throw line in the first and second rounds, the Lady Vols have nailed 51 of their last 61 free-throw attempts. That was the difference in their physical Regional Final against Rutgers, in which Tennessee enjoyed a lopsided 35-13 advantage in free-throw attempts, converting 29 of them.

They will need all of these assets against the Spartans. Michigan State plays a suffocating zone that held opponents to 37% shooting all season, best among the Final Four teams. The defense was designed by assistant coach Al Brown, who apprenticed under Summitt for seven years before taking a job as Michigan State’s primary tactician under Joannie McCallie.

The fellow no. 1-seeded Spartans boast the superior backcourt of Kristin Haynie and Lindsay Bowen, who combined to lead Division I schools in assists-to-turnover ratio. Haynie is a terrific rebounder for a point guard and Bowen led the Spartans’ long range attack; Michigan State as a team shot 40% from behind the arc, best in the Big Ten.

The Spartan frontcourt, led by Kelli Roehig and Liz Shimek, should be able to counter the Vols’ deep reserve of inside players that includes Tye’sha Fluker, Shyla Ely, and Nicky Anosike. On Tuesday night, Michigan State ousted top ranked Stanford largely by outrebounding the Cardinal by a 37-27 margin.

On paper, the Spartans have a slight advantage, but the Lady Vols’ ability to run their offense under pressure keeps them in any game. Last season, they advanced to the national final by winning three straight games that came down to a final shot. If this one is close at the end, the Lady Vols may find a way to win again. Nevertheless, the Spartans have played 13 games against ranked opponents this year and won 12 of them; Tennessee is 10-3 against ranked opponents, so the pick is Michigan State.

LOUISIANA STATE VS. BAYLOR
Sunday, 7 p.m.

When these two teams met in November, Baylor rallied from a 21-point deficit to tie the game at 69 in the final minutes before the Lady Tigers held on for a 71-70 win. Both teams have lost only twice since then.

No 1-seeded LSU is led by its backcourt tandem of point guard Tameeka Johnson and swing woman Seimone Augustus. They play an up-tempo game, combining for 32 points per contest; Augustus, a unanimous All-American, contributes 20.1 ppg, making her a favorite for Player of the Year honors.

The matchup between Augustus and Baylor defensive whiz Abiola Wabara could decide this game. Augustus dominated their first meeting with 33 points. But Warbara, a lanky woman with great agility, has grown into her role as shutdown defender. And if she falters, the Bears’ All-American inside tandem of Sophia Young and Stephanie Blackmon will be waiting in the paint.

LSU possesses a good midrange game, but surprisingly for a guard-led team, they are weak from behind the arc, taking only 3.8 attempts per game and hitting an SEC-worst 34.3% of them. Instead, LSU depends on its guards breaking opponents down on the dribble and getting to the hoop.

At the other end, no. 2-seeded Baylor is a strong offensive team. Both Young and Blackmon complement their outside marksmanship with a good repertoire of low-post moves. Led by guard Scholanda Hoston, the Lady Bears shot 40.9% on treys this season. LSU is a solid defensive team on the perimeter and excels at limiting teams to one shot, which spurs their fast break.

Baylor showed in the regional final that it could slow the pace of an up-tempo opponent, holding the high-scoring North Carolina offense to 32% shooting in a 72-63 triumph. If their All-Americans lead a tight interior defense, the Bears should hand the Lady Tigers their third loss of the season and go on to claim the school’s first title on Tuesday night.