Say this for Team USA: That’s about as bad as you can look and still win by 20.

You can see the glass half-full and say it was a good thing the U.S. had a bad game yesterday against an undermanned Germany team, rather than on Sunday against Argentina or Spain. Conversely, you can see the glass as half-empty and point out that the U.S.’s inability to attack the German zone is likely to be exploited more successfully by better opponents this weekend.

What you can’t argue, however, is that the U.S. played poorly in its 85–65 win, and if they had been playing Argentina or Spain they probably would have lost. Germany sat back in a zone and used its size (7-foot Dirk Nowitzki, 7-foot Patrick Femerling, and 6-foot-8 Ademola Okulaja) to defend the basket area better than any U.S. opponent to date. The strategy worked because the U.S. was absolutely miserable from the perimeter, making only 10 of 40 on 3-pointers. Dwyane Wade was the worst culprit, going 0 for 5, but he had plenty of company.

The U.S. missed a lot of wide-open shots that probably will go down on any other night, but that wasn’t the only problem. In the first half especially there was way too much one-on-one play, while LeBron James really struggled — he had seven of the U.S. side’s 13 turnovers.

Fortunately, the U.S. defense played its best game of the tournament. Not only did the American side hold Germany to 63 points, but it completely cut off the open 3-pointers that had plagued it in previous games. The Germans were only 3-of-13 from beyond the arc, as the U.S. has become much more precise switching on screens off the ball since the opener against Puerto Rico.

Additionally, the U.S. shut down Germany in other respects. Offensive boards had been a problem in previous contests, but the U.S.allowed only three yesterday. They also forced 24 turnovers, thanks mainly to suffocating ball pressure that overwhelmed the German guards. Germany eked out just 0.78 points per possession, an almost unheard-of total in an international game where teams normally average 1.20 or so. Had Germany not made 20 of 21 from the line, the numbers would have been even worse.

Once again, the defensive star of the game was Chris Bosh. While he was never known for his defense with the Raptors, his effort level has been amazing the past two games.Yesterday, Bosh came in off the bench flying, taking charges, making switches on guards, blocking shots, and generally creating mayhem in the German offense. He wasn’t the only star — James did a fine job on Nowitzki to start the second half, while Kirk Hinrich and Chris Paul again tormented opposing guards with their ball pressure.

The U.S. had to overcome another obstacle as well: horrific officiating. The refs haven’t played a big role in the Americans’ other contests, but yesterday was your typical FIBA mess. It wasn’t necessarily anti-U.S. — the team benefited from a questionable third foul on Nowitzki and a laugh-out-loud continuation call that gave Dwight Howard a bucket — but it was hard to get a rhythm going with so many phantom travels and dubious whistles breaking up the flow of the game.

Fans will note that Nowitzki was only 3 for 12 with five turnovers, and there’s a lesson here too. Yes, the Americans played some good defense, but the dude is also out of gas. Players like Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade that played until June and then had to almost immediately begin training for the World Championships have been notably less efficient than their normal standard, which is one reason these summer international tournaments give the U.S. so much trouble. Other players with long playoff runs, like France’s Boris Diaw, Brazil’s Leandro Barbosa and Anderson Varejao, and the U.S.’s LeBron James, have also struggled. This is also why Argentina is limiting Manu Ginobili’s minutes.

And now, we get to the real games.The U.S., Greece, Spain, and Argentina are a combined 28–0 in the tournament thus far, and few of the games have been close.That should change this weekend. For the U.S.,next up is Greece on Friday, who advanced with a 73–56 win over an offensively punchless French side.

Greece has been the weakest of the four semifinalists, needing a last-second miracle to beat an Australia team that lost to the U.S. by 40. Nonetheless, they are a major upgrade in talent from any team the U.S. has faced thus far.

I still expect the American side to win, because the Greeks have trouble scoring and the U.S. defense is gaining steam, but it might be more like a 70–60 contest than the 118–95 games we’ve grown accustomed to.

If so, they’ll play the Spain-Argentina winner on Sunday. My money is on Spain — Argentina has nobody who can cover Pau Gasol and Manu looks a little tired to me — but either way it will be another giant step up in quality.Thus, the U.S.can’t have another effort like yesterday’s if they expect to triumph. But as unimpressive as the Germany game was, the defense was solid and the main culprit was cold shooting. Let’s hope it was an aberration, because if they don’t make their shots this weekend, the U.S. won’t be coming home with a title.