Although much attention was given to the Tigers losing three of four games to Minnesota this past weekend, this was a debacle that’s been at least a month in the making. Including this weekend’s setback for the Central-leading Tigers, it’s their meager 10 wins in their last 32 games, and how they’ve been playing down to that level instead of being merely unlucky that should be the real source of concern. Winning only 10 games in a little over a month is how you go from boasting baseball’s best record on August 7, nine games ahead of the then-second-best team (the Mets), and wind up only two games ahead of the Twins with three weeks to go.

Generally speaking, it isn’t the pitching that has been the problem, although the weeks of speculation about what the Tigers would do in their rotation once veteran lefty Mike Maroth came off of the DL, and whether or not they’d go with a six-man rotation down the stretch, seems like much wasted ink. Initially, the concern was that rookie Justin Verlander would run out of gas, but instead it’s Jeremy Bonderman who has failed to log a quality start (six innings pitched or more, three runs allowed or less) in his last five outings, generating increased concern that he’s worn out. Meanwhile, Verlander was the lone Tiger starter to beat the Twins in their four-game showdown. Now that things are desperate, rather than bandy about notions about using six or seven starting pitchers, the Tigers have helped hemselves by moving rookie Zach Miner out of the rotation, and starting hard-throwing lefty Wil Ledezma in his place. However, now that Maroth is back from his elbow injury, Leyland might consider the merits of a Maroth for Bonderman exchange.

Similarly, the pen has been pretty solid. Closer Todd Jones hasn’t been as good as setup men Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney, but together they still make up one of the game’s best late-game trios. However, Jones is the weak link, a hittable closer without dominating stuff. Although it’s good money that says he’ll finish what Zumaya and Rodney hand off to him, the problem is that he isn’t getting those opportunities. Arguably, Jones hasn’t been the same since saving three games in four days in mid-August, but the reason he’s only logged one save since is that he’s only had two save opportunities.

The reason why the Tigers are coming up short is an imploding offense. As the table reflects, scoring fewer than four runs a game, as the Tigers have done by scoring an average of 3.6 runs in their 32-game tailspin, is more this club’s problem. The Tigers currently rank a mediocre eighth in the American League in runs scored, and they’re 11th in runs scored since the All-Star break. Overall, if you adjust for park effects, league-wide offensive levels, and the opposing pitchers, they drop to a weak 10th in the American League in Equivalent Average.

Put plainly, the Tigers aren’t a good offensive ballclub. Since the break, only third baseman Brad Inge, shortstop Carlos Guillen, and outfielder Craig Monroe have done well at the plate, while veterans like catcher Ivan Rodriguez, right fielder Magglio Ordonez, and center fielder Curtis Granderson have all failed to put many runs on the board. In Granderson’s case, some of his struggling may be forgiven — manager Jim Leyland has foregone carrying a reliable backup center fielder for most of the season, placing a heavy workload on the rookie.

There are some precise reasons for this offensive collapse, some of which were accidents, but many self-inflicted. Losing second baseman Placido to a dislocated shoulder shouldn’t have been crippling — Polanco only ranks 35th among all major-league second basemen in Value Over Replacement (VORP), lower than teammate Omar Infante (32nd). But rather than play Infante, the Tigers had the very bad idea of acquiring veteran infielder Neifi Perez from the Cubs, and Perez has been as bad as you’d expect from one of the game’s most historically inoffensive middle infielders, hitting .159 AVG/.213 OBA/.159 SLG as a Tiger, and .239/.258/.314 overall. In terms of VORP, he’s 68th out of 68 big-league second basemen this year. He’s exactly the player you don’t want to use as a replacement, and the Tigers have lost eight of the 12 games he’s started since getting him.

Similarly, the club’s attempt to replace starting first baseman Chris Shelton after his titanic slump has gone for naught — popular veteran Sean Casey has been awful as a Tiger, hitting a paltry .230/.266/.320, and like Perez, Casey’s best years are long since behind him, generating little hope that he’ll get much better. Even here, a better option was on hand — since the All-Star break, Dmitri Young has been one of the Tigers’ few productive hitters (.292/.331/.504), but a bad patch in September led to the hasty (or panicked) decision to release him. The organization has subsequently been whispering that Young was a clubhouse cancer, but better to risk going radioactive and score some runs than die with the acceptably anemic Casey and Perez.

Looking ahead, there’s the danger of next week’s three-game series against the White Sox in Chicago to worry about.Only 3.5 behind Detroit now, and with their own shot at the wild card to worry about, the Sox will be gunning for both playoff bids in that series, offering little solace to a Tigers team that will only subsequently get the relief of playing six of their last nine against the hapless Royals.

The danger isn’t just that the ChiSox-Twins series on the season’s final weekend could determine a playoff slot, it’s the chance that they’ll merely be sorting out who gets the division title, and who has to “settle” for a wild card.

What is the danger of that? Through Monday’s games, Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report states that the Tigers have a 77.5% shot at winning the title, and a 19.4% shot at the wild card, and projects the Tigers to go 11–7 in their last 18 games. In light of their struggles the last month, expecting the Tigers to do that seems dicey enough as is, but it’s only slightly more unlikely than expecting the Twins to win only 10 of their last 19 when Minnesota expects to get their second ace, rookie sensation Francisco Liriano, back into the rotation for the stretch, replacing an ineffective Scott Baker. In contrast, the Sox have played .500 ball for more than a month — expecting them to do more of the same doesn’t seem all that unlikely, but when things get this tight, anything’s possible.

Ms. Kahrl is writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art analysis, visit baseballprospectus.com.