For the first time since 1992, the gate for the Preakness Stakes, which is limited to 14 horses, is full. Last night in Baltimore, the post positions for the horses gunning for the Black Eyed Susans were decided, and it looks like a wide-open race.

Certainly, we’re seeing the effects of a long-shot exacta finish in the Kentucky Derby. Four new horses are heading to Pimlico, with 10 horses coming from the Derby, the largest number since Charismatic’s Preakness in 1999. Incidentally, Charismatic went into the Preakness that year much as Giacomo will this weekend: as a long-shot winner of the Derby dissed by the oddsmakers, sent off at Pimlico at 8-1. (He won.)

In the past 10 days, racing people have chalked up Giacomo’s Derby to any number of variables: a rocket-fueled pace, a crowded field, a rugged track. It’s true that the Derby was basically two races, with a blistering pace followed by a half-mile run that resembled a low-level allowance at a cheap track rather than a Grade I race. But it’s also true that everyone on the dirt that Saturday had the same chance. Some took advantage of the situation; others fell apart.

Triple Crown races are not like other races. They come at the tail end of days stacked with stakes races and big fields. Pimlico typically runs eight races on a weekday, nine on a Friday, maybe 11 on a Saturday – and suddenly, 13 on Preakness day. The maintenance crew works the track to make it “perfect,” taking an hour between each race instead of the customary 25 or so minutes. It’s not a surface that runs like the track would normally run, and that, as much as anything, is why these big races have surprising results.

Certainly, no result this year has been more surprising than Giacomo’s victory in the Derby. But his spot in the 13th hole for the Preakness does not bode well; only four Preakness races have been won from the eighth position out. But that shouldn’t be the deciding factor: Afleet Alex will. The morning line favorite will be lined up right next to Giacomo in the 12th slot.

One cliche about Pimlico is that the turns are tight. It’s true to a degree, especially in comparison to the wide, sweeping sand that is Belmont. But with a 14-horse field and a good bit of running before they reach the first turn, it’s hard to imagine that any one of them would be stuck trying to turn on a dime seven wide simply because of where he started in the gate.

Some of the positions drawn yesterday could affect the race, however. Going Wild, for example, is a horse that likes to be up in the race, but he will start from the far outside on Saturday. He started from the 19th slot in Kentucky, and he managed to jump up into the pace only to fade later on. From the far outside at Pimlico, Going Wild will again have to gun it to get around the traffic and go for the lead if he is to make any kind of run.

Malibu Moonshine finds himself in the familiar inside slot. He won the April 23 Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico after starting in the one-hole. He rated a couple of lengths off the early speed in that race, then angled out four wide to get in front. But the splits for the Tesio were not much to write home about: The first 1/2 mile went in 49 1/5 – not a number you’ll see much of on the past performances for Grade I runners.

I like the spot for Closing Argument, who arguably ran the most impressive race in the Kentucky Derby. He stayed in the first wave of that brilliant pace; then, instead of crumbling on the stretch, he stuck. The seventh position at Pimlico gives him nothing to worry about. He shouldn’t be forced into any race, and jockey Cornelio Velasquez should be able to choose his spot.

Watching Closing Argument in the last yards of the Kentucky Derby furthers my suspicion that there was something horribly wrong with the inside paths on the closing stretch. Right after Giacomo got up into the race, all the runners seemed to stop. Afleet Alex was left alone on the inside while Giacomo came up on the far outside. Closing Argument lunged to the outside and almost bumped Giacomo. Afleet Alex was slogging, and Closing Argument got a spurt of energy (or moved out of the quicksand onto the part of the track that was running normally) and ran along with Giacomo to get the place.

Position matters, in other words, but not always in the way one would expect. If you had said that there was a bias at Churchill Downs favoring the seventh and eighth paths in the last furlong, people would rightly have called you crazy.