Off-Season Tasks Differ From Loser to Loser

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For some NBA teams, a first-round playoff elimination is no big deal; just making the postseason marked the campaign as a success. For other teams, a first-round loss is just the opposite, the end of the run, a marker that it’s time to back up the truck and start over. For others still, the loss starts a series of tweaks that could leave the team playing deeper into the playoffs. In the last week, eight teams have shifted their focus from the postseason to the off-season. In the order of their departure, let’s look at the dilemmas they face.

Despite their first round loss to the Detroit Pistons, the Milwaukee Bucks should feel pretty good about their season. The Bucks improved from 30-52 in 2004-05 to 40-42 this season, and in doing so established their center (Andrew Bogut) and point guard (T.J. Ford) of the future. With the two most difficult positions on the roster filled by rising stars and 27-year-old sharpshooter Michael Redd inked to a long-term deal, the Bucks seem primed to move into the Eastern Conference elite. But they have a lot of work ahead of them.

The Bucks were outscored by their opponents 8105-8020, which is consistent with a 38-44 record, and their defense was abysmal. The primary cause was their opponents’ effective Field Goal percentage (a stat that accounts for the additional points rewarded for free throws and three-pointers). The Bucks allowed opponents a .50 eFG%, which ranked them 23rd in the league and indicated that they were allowing more than their share of open looks.

The Bucks also fouled a lot (typically a sign that a team is letting its opponents to get to the rim), allowing .262 free throws per shot attempt – again one of the worst in the league. Milwaukee is capped out, but they have underutilized assets on their roster. Dan Gadzuric would be an excellent pivot player, but he languished on the bench after the preseason acquisition of Jamaal Magloire, who disappointed in the pivot. Magloire, whose $8.3 million salary comes off the books after next season, could be dealt for perimeter defensive aces, which would allow Gadzuric more playing time.

Out West, the Denver Nuggets finished their season by dragging a train wreck into the playoffs. Racked by injuries and dissension, the team slipped from 49-33 last season to 44-38, and that doesn’t tell the full story.

The Nuggets went 32-8 after coach George Karl took over late in 2004 and were expected to vie for the Western Conference championship this season. But during the off-season, GM Kiki Vandeweghe failed to find a perimeter threat to complement forward Carmelo Anthony, and when reserve pivotman Nene was lost for the season with a knee injury on opening night, the Nuggets hobbled along and made the playoffs only because they play in a weak division. By the time the Clippers put them out of their misery, power forward Kenyon Martin had been suspended for a locker room tantrum and Anthony, who was double-and triple-teamed on many possessions, must have felt that he was playing oneon-five against Los Angeles.

Vandeweghe’s departure has been made official, and his successor will have a busy agenda. Martin is already the subject of trade talk, though the $71 million remaining on his contract will limit the list of suitors. Nene is also a free agent, but if Martin is sent packing, his return is a necessity. The other pivotman, Marcus Camby, is 31 and has never missed fewer than 10 games in a season.

The new GM will have his hands full, but he will be building a team that already has a quality point guard in Andre Miller and an elite forward in Anthony.

Down South, there’s no major groundswell of dissension building over the Memphis Grizzlies’ third straight four-game face plant in the playoffs, but this is a team that needs several tweaks if it’s to reach the Conference semifinals. For three years now, the Griz have finished in the bottom half of the conference playoff bracket, but they have steadily improved.

Memphis has one elite player (Pau Gasol) a coach (Mike Fratello) who could probably take 10 guys from New York City playground leagues and turn them into a top 10 defensive team, and two excellent complimentary players in Shane Battier and Mike Miller. What it needs is a better play in the pivot, a real point guard, and better depth.

A big man is the biggest need. The Griz finished in the bottom half of the league in cleaning the glass at both ends of the court. They’re said to be interested in trading for Magloire, who had an off-year in Milwaukee. Memphis also finished in the lower echelon of the league in turnovers and free throw attempts. Free agent point guard Mike James would help both causes. For a team that hasn’t won a playoff game in three postseason trips, the Grizzlies may be surprisingly close to moving to the next level.

There is a wider divergence of viewpoints about the Indiana Pacers’ off-season than any other recent first-round loser. Some want to blow up the roster and start over. But a handful of small moves should return the Pacers to the elite.

Forward Peja Stojakovic is a free agent and the Pacers would do well to package him in a sign-and-trade for a good rebounding big man. In part because power forward Jermaine O’Neal missed 30 games, the Pacers were a poor rebounding team this season, which doesn’t suit their tough style of play.

Indiana did finish fourth in Defensive Efficiency, but ranked only 21st in Offensive Efficiency. Part of the problem is that their least-efficient perimeter player, Stephen Jackson, a 41.1% shooter, took too many shots. That can be fixed by increasing the roles of rookie swingmen Danny Granger and Sarunas Jasikevicius.

The Pacers organization has often retooled on the fly, which explains why the team hasn’t had consecutive losing seasons since 1989. With a healthy O’Neal, moving back into the league’s elite should be a snap for them.

mjohnson@nysun.com


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