Ladies and gentlemen: the Kentucky Derby. I can’t remember a better race, a more qualified field, a bigger Derby than the one shaping up to go off Saturday afternoon. 150,000 fans will stand on their toes trying to see out over the ocean of feathered hats and catch a glimpse of the famed dirt shadowed by the twin spires. The sun may or may not shine bright in old Kentucky Saturday, as it does in Stephen Foster’s song “My Old Kentucky Home,” but it sure is Derby Day, and the people are gay.

Gaggles of seersuckered boys will patrol the paddock. The millionaires will fill their row, the suites will be jammed with hangers on, shoveling shrimp cocktails and swilling juleps. They come out of the woodwork for the Derby – celebrities, sports figures, Dennis Hopper. Everyone is carrying a Racing Form folded in her purse and fumbling with betting slips. Everyone’s got his horse.

For railbirds like myself, it’s as if our version of the world had come true: Horse racing has become the only game in town.

There’s a lot of good horse in this 132nd Kentucky Derby. Usually, you’ve got one standout, one Empire Maker looming over field with roses written all over him.

This year, we’ve got a clutch. Undefeated Barbaro with two tries at 1 1/8; eager Lawyer Ron, who’s never lost a race on the dirt, coming off a string of dominant performances at Oaklawn Park, just like Smarty Jones did; Brother Derek, out of California, the favorite, showing nothing but speed and talent.

At longer odds there’s Sweetnorthernsaint, without a loss since he was gelded, consistently fast, with a slam on the stretch like he’s got after burners. Sinister Minister tore up the Keeneland track in the Blue Grass stakes, earning the highest speed figure of his generation. His jockey, Victor Espinoza, is going to have to gun it, hang on, and try to turn left.

These are all great; I wouldn’t talk you off of any of them. None of them is my pick.

Horse racing is at once pessimistic and hopeful. There is optimism in the face of adversity: The most beleaguered punter will return for a fresh start. Trainers soundly beaten will give their horse some oats and put him back in the gate.

At the same time, the whole scene is rife with doubt. There are never enough fans, horses are always injured. The biggest boast you’ll hear from an honest owner would be that maybe, if the wind were at their back, they might get up into the money. The whole sport is infused with the sense that anything can happen. The best horse you’ve ever had could stumble out of the gate.

Among this crowd, two characters seem the most resigned, at least in their public persona. They are famed Washington Post turf hack and inventor of the Beyer Speed Figures Andy Beyer, and trainer Barclay Tagg. Together, they have conspired to concretize a suspicion I’ve harbored since the Coolmore Lexington on April 22, when I shot to my feet for something like the 12th time since these horses were 2 years old, shouting: “There’s your horse, baby, that’s the horse that’s going to win the Derby.”

The horse was Showing Up: He’s going to win the Kentucky Derby.

Tagg trained Funny Cide to victories in the 2003 Derby and Preakness, and Beyer said of him in last week’s Washington Post that he remained an enigma to most, “variously described as grumpy, grouchy, pessimistic, curt, and grim.” He went on to write that “this much was certain: Unlike most of his brethren in the training profession, he would never bring a 3-year-old into the classics without a compelling reason.”

I was at Tagg’s barn at Belmont on Wednesday, and let me tell you, he was far from grim. He and assistant Robin Smullen were ebullient.

Showing Up made his first start in a $32,000 6 1/2 furlong race on February 11 at Gulfstream Park. Out of the gate, Showing Up and High Finance went for the same position. High Finance got the spot, and Showing Up had to steady. Though this was his first race, Showing Up was unruffled. He settled in and saved ground around the turn. When an opening presented itself, he took it, and when they hit the stretch he moved wide and exploded. He won by four lengths.

Tagg tried him over a mile in a Gulfstream allowance on March 11. He went straight to the front, trading the lead with a horse named Podgy. At the quarter pole, Showing Up had had enough of Podgy and shook him loose. Podgy sagged on the inside and started to fade. A horse named Flanders Fields ranged up and dropped the gauntlet. Showing Up put him away. Chatain made his move and came from off the pace to challenge as they reached the top of the stretch. Showing Up repelled him, and took the race by 2 1/4 lengths. It was a track record for a mile.

I asked Tagg if they’d started the record book anew, since it’s a new track at Gulfstream. He laughed and said he didn’t know. “He did it in [1]:34 though, that’s legitimate. The record ought to last until the end of the season, don’t you think?”

A sore hoof kept the horse out of the Wood Memorial. “I had him perfect,” Tagg said, “one month in between each.” He shrugged, “So, he had six weeks off, came back and ran a great race.”

Indeed he did.

The Coolmore Lexington was his first try around two turns, his first attempt at graded stakes company, and his last chance to get into the Derby.

Fast horses got loose on the lead, opening up on the field around the backstretch, with Showing Up tucked in running fourth. Going into the second turn the field reeled in the leaders. There was traffic on the front of the race, and Showing Up was looking at a wall of horse in front of him. He stayed in, starting to look for room on the turn. He switched lanes halfway around, and at the bottom of the turn he shot to the far outside to find room.

With one furlong left to run, he kicked it into gear and surged. There was no hesitation. He took control and got clear. It was a solid race, but “not so fast that he’ll bounce off it” Tagg pointed out, which is especially worrisome with only two weeks in between races.

Then came another problem: a small puncture wound.The kind of thing that can simply go away, or blow up to the size of a grapefruit and sideline your horse.

But he’s healthy. Tagg thinks the Derby will set up pretty much the same as the Lexington, with some speed loose out front.

“Nothing fazes him,” Smullen said.

Certainly he’s proved that.

“He does this little thing with his mouth,” she said, working her fingers like a duck’s bill. “He’s not all up on the muscle. Funny used to jump around, show off. Nothing fazes this horse.”

Adversity is the key to the Kentucky Derby. This is a rough race. Showing Up has demonstrated a dogged persistance. He’ll fight. He’s got reserves. He’s got speed. He’s tactical.

Said Tagg: “We’ll need luck, of course, there’s some good horses in the race. But …”

Mr. Watman is the author of “A Spot on the Rail With Max Watman,” published by Ivan R. Dee.

Derby Bettor’s Box

I only know one person who scored the win last year with five dollars on Giacomo’s nose – the 6-year-old daughter of a friend of mine. With that in mind, I asked my neighbor across the street, a 4-year-old girl named Raina who loves horses who she liked.

Unless her parents realize that handicapping races with a turf hack might not be the best way to spend her childhood, I will have her picks for each of the Triple Crown races. Each of us is placing an imaginary $5 bet on the win, place, and show. We’ll see who has more funny money after the Belmont Stakes. Side action is welcome, but I think all the advantages are hers.

RAINA’S PICKS:

Win: Bluegrass Cat
Place: Flashy Bull
Show: Storm Treasure

MAX’S PICKS:

Win: Showing Up
Place: Sweetnorthernsaint
Show: Barbaro

Of course, what’s a Derby day without a stupendous amount of absurd wagers? For those of you who find the big payoffs of the exotics irresistible, here’s what I’ll be thinking about as I recast the race a thousand times.

Sinister Minister, Keyed Entry, and Sharp Humor will get to the front, and burn through early fractions in one of the fastest Derbies of all time, which is say, just like last year. There is no other race for Sinister Minister, and trainer Bob Baffert has said as much. He’ll try to hang on, but he won’t. Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron, stuck on the far out side, will expend too much energy overcoming their post positions, and they’ll get hung outside of Barbaro and Bob and John on the first turn, making a four wide wall.

Showing Up will tuck in behind those horses and wait to make his move.

To round out a five-horse trifecta, I would look at the horses who have the speed to get themselves where they need to be without getting sucked into the early fractions, and the stamina to close: A. P. Warrior fits that bill, as does Point Determined. If it was the Belmont, I’d save a little bit of the trifecta for Jazil or Steppenwolfer, but I can’t see a race in which the whole second chunk fades enough to allow them to catch up. I’m thinking they’ll rally to fifth. I’d stick by my picks above, and my boxed tri would be: 5, 6, 8, 10, 11. As a $1 trifecta, that will cost you $60.