1. JAZIL

JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
Jara Kiaran McLaughlin 30-1

Solid closer, will drop to dead last and make it up. Jazil gained an incredible amount of ground to get the place in the Wood and earn the money needed to get him in the gate here. The question is: Were those horses running? The final furlong ran in a pokey 14. But then again, at his furthest back, he was 20 lengths off the lead. Were those horses 20 lengths worth of dead on their feet? Surely, the front of this race will disintegrate, but don’t count on Jazil getting past the second wave.

2. STEPPENWOLFER

R. Albarado Dan Peitz 30-1

I like a horse that always tries, and this one fits that profile. He consistently improves his position, no matter the pace, no matter the distance. The problem is that he met up with Lawyer Ron at Oaklawn, and hasn’t gotten up under the wire since. He’s a good of-fthe-pace horse, and if he sinks comfortably with one to his left, he might figure in the tri.

3. KEYED ENTRY

P. Valenzuela Todd Plechter 30-1

A flashy horse, doomed by his position next to the rocket on his left. He is capable of running a hole in the wind in a one-turn sprint. But he couldn’t catch Like Now in a pokey Gotham, and weakened in the Wood. Even if you excused both those races, which you could do, you’d still have him sitting right next to the rocket, and about to get sucked into a speed duel. Shorten him back up, and he’s your pony.

4. SINISTER MINISTER

V. Espinoza Bob Baffert 12-1

That runaway speed show, the slam-dunk of the prep season over the Keeneland dirt, is not to be trusted. What was he doing running a 58 Beyer fig (half what he notched in the Blue Grass) just 2 prior? What was he doing in ungraded Golden Gate Fields stakes? I guarantee he’ll pull the field through the first six furlongs in 1:09, unless Espinoza tries to set a false pace and keep something in the tank. The presence of Keyed Entry ought to make that impossible. If Sinister keeps going like he did in the Bluegrass, he’s unbeatable. If he stops, he won’t hang on to figure in the trifecta.

5. POINT DETERMINED

R. Bejarano Bob Baffert 12-1

There is a lot in store for this horse down the road, but here’s what’s to like now: He’s a stalker, which is a good thing for this race, and he’s from the first crop of Point Given foals, which means he’s built for this race. But he’s been beaten by two of the horses here (A.P. Warrior and Brother Derek). If he wants the distance and he gets better with age, why didn’t he get up to win in the Santa Anita Derby?

6. SHOWING UP

C. Velasquez Barclay Tagg 20-1

You can’t win the Derby with only three races, no starts at 2, and just one race around two turns. Gulfstream and Keeneland are not like Churchill Downs. And his Beyer Figures don’t read like a Derby winner’s.

7. BOB AND JOHN

Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 12-1

Don’t think the Wood was the most demanding of Derby preps. This horse won it well, though, showing some good fight. Still, he’s not fast enough to keep up with the front of this race, and he doesn’t have the kind of closing kick that can take it, either. On the other hand, if it rains, maybe 12-1 is a gift.

8. BARBARO

Edgar Prado Michael Matz 4-1 Undefeated is hard to argue with. He’s had two starts over 1 1/8th mile, so clearly the distance is not a problem. Of the favorites, he’s the one. On the other hand, I don’t like how he had to wear down Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby. Was he unable to get by him? Or was Sharp Humor showing incredible guts?

9. SHARP HUMOR

M. Guidry Dale Romans 20-1 Gutsy horse will be on the lead with Sinister, pulling everything around them into a suicidal first six furlongs. Showed guts sticking while Barbaro attacked in the Florida Derby. Will stick to figure in the top four. Won’t stick to win it.

10. A.P. WARRIOR

C. Nakatani John Shirreffs 15-1 The problem for A.P. is Brother Derek. Out on the left coast, Derek has been soundly dominating him. His two races with Shirreffs as trainer have been great, and he beat horses in this race in the San Felipe. But I can’t see what’s going to get him past Brother Derek – certainly not the fact that Shirreffs put him in Giacomo’s post position.

11. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT

K. Desormeaux Mike Trombetta 10-1

The overlay. This horse handed in a monster race in the Illinois. Took control and slammed home 9 1/4 in front. But he’s had some problems. He was a mess his first time out. When he wins, though, he wins big: 16 lengths, 7 3/4 lengths, 10 lengths. At 10-1 what’s not to like?

12. PRIVATE VOW

S. Bridgmohan Steve Asmussen 50-1 Very nice as a 2-year-old, he was my pick in the Breeders’ Cup Juvie when he broke a rein. Came back to win the Kentucky Juvenile at Churchill, a Grade 2 event over 1 1/16 with 14 horses in the pack. Pretty promising … except they seem to have switched horses during the layoff and found an unimpressive plater to run in his stead as a 3-year-old.

13. BLUEGRASS CAT

R. Dominguez Todd Plechter 30-1

30-1? I’ll take it. If you throw out the Keeneland, which you should, you get a strong horse with a string of wins and one race in Tampa that didn’t work out for him. His style, however, might kill him here. He wants the front of the race, and he won’t have it. If he can repeat the gutsy, long drive of his 3-year-old debut – in which he stalked perfectly, running three-wide the whole way, and took it on the stretch over a dug-in Deputy Glitters – he’ll figure.

14. DEPUTY GLITTERS

Jose Lezcano Tom Albertrani 50-1

Gave a gutsy try losing to his neighbor Bluegrass Cat, then came back to beat him in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bounced off that effort in the slop at the Big A, and failed miserably in the Wood.

15. SEASIDE RETREAT

P. Husbands Mark Casse 50-1 Casse is always a threat at Churchill. If he had this horse in Grade 3’s where he belongs, the horse would be a threat, too.

16. CAUSE TO BELIEVE

R. Baze Jerry Hollendorfer 50-1 At these odds, a very interesting horse. It’s hard to have cause to believe that he’ll be wearing the roses, but he looks like he might like the distance, and he has run some good rallies.

17. LAWYER RON

John McKee Ron Holthus 4-1 Took what we’re referring to as the “Smarty Jones” route to the Derby by winning the Arkansas Derby, the Rebel, and the Southwest Stakes. But when Smarty took those races, he scored Beyers of 107 and 108 in each. He was tearing them apart. The low figs in Ron’s wins makes one wonder what he was up against.

Clearly, he dominated those races. His main trick is to set slow fractions rating in front and then slip off to win it. That’s not an option here, so he must repeat another style: either jump out and blaze through it, or rate in back and close strong. He can’t blaze through it with Sinister and Sharp Humor out there (though he might be too eager to avoid the fight), and he’s going to have a lot of horse to get around.

18. BROTHER DEREK

Alex Solis Dan Hendricks 3-1

Derek’s a classy horse with the breeding to win this race and a series of convincing victories out in California. There’s a lot of movement away from this horse; in a field this talented I’m not tempted to make 3-1 bets, but his odds might drift up. He’s the deserving favorite. The knocks: he hasn’t had dirt in his face, and hasn’t had to fight as hard as he’s going to here.

19. STORM TREASURE

David Flores Steve Asmussen 50-1

Broke his maiden here at Churchill last year – his only win. Even Asmussen said he’d have to run the race of his life to win. Of course, that’s true of every horse here. My money says this horse could run the race of his life and come in fourth.

20. FLASHY BULL

Mike Smith Kiaran McLaughlin 50-1

Holy Bull, Flashy’s sire, was a great horse, though he didn’t much care for the Derby, where he finished 12th as the favorite. He did, however, sire Giacomo, last year’s longshot winner. Flashy Bull isn’t quite as unrealistic a choice as Giacomo, but he’s close. There’s no reason he should win this race, or even figure, except that it would be neat to have two longshot winners two years in a row, both from the same sire, both with the same jock.