One-Loss Teams Try To Get BCS Attention
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In a weekend where three of college football’s seven remaining undefeated teams are off and the other four play lightly regarded opponents, the cluster of one-loss teams grab the sport’s spotlight.
Among the unbeatens, West Virginia, Louisville, and Boise State have byes, while Ohio State, Michigan, and Rutgers are expected to have little trouble in home dates with Minnesota, Northwestern, and Connecticut, respectively. Only USC, third in the latest Bowl Championship Standings, is a potential upset victim playing on the road at Oregon State. The Trojans have developed a disturbing trend of playing to the level of their competition, a habit that could bounce them from the championship chase should it continue.
The current pecking order (according to the BCS standings) among the one-loss teams hoping to reach the title game goes like this: no. 5 Auburn, no. 6 Florida, no. 7 Texas, no. 9 Notre Dame, no. 10 Cal, and no. 11 Tennessee. With the exception of idle Cal, all are in action this Saturday. Auburn should have little trouble with Ole Miss, but others face tougher tests. Here’s a look at the key games:
NO. 9 NOTRE DAME (6-1) AT NAVY (5-2)
(Saturday 12 p.m. CBS)
This is the longest-running intersectional rivalry in the country — dating back to 1927 — but many wonder why it continues. Though Navy has managed to give Notre Dame a few scares in recent seasons, the Irish have won an astounding 42 straight meetings in the series and are considerable favorites to make it 43.
The game, which will be played at the Baltimore Ravens’ home stadium to take advantage of Notre Dame’s national fan base, pits the Irish’s pro-style passing attack against Navy’s old-school option attack.
Navy might have had a puncher’s chance in this game if it hadn’t lost standout quarterback Brian Hampton, the team’s leading rusher, to a season-ending knee injury in its last game against Rutgers two weeks ago. That contest, a 34–0 Navy loss, illustrates what happens to a run-only option team when it falls behind, and a similar score can be expected if Brady Quinn and the Irish offense are able to put up some early points.
Notre Dame is coming off a miraculous win over UCLA last week in which Quinn found favorite receiver Jeff Samardzija for a 45-yard scoring pass with just 27 seconds remaining to avoid the upset.
A win here will keep Notre Dame cruising towards a 10–1 record when it plays USC in November. If the Irish reach that game with a single loss, an at-large BCS bid is all but assured.
NO. 6 FLORIDA (6-1, 4–1 SEC) AT GEORGIA (6-2,3–2)
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
What once looked like one of the SEC games of the year has dropped in significance following a pair of recent Georgia losses. Instead of debating whether Georgia’s anemic offense poses any threat to the Gators’ defense, fans and pundits have spent more time this week discussing the game’s unofficial title. This annual neutral-site grudge match has long been known as the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” a moniker the schools are working to eradicate for reasons of political correctness.
Georgia fans might rightly describe the game simply as “a nightmare.” Florida has won 14 of 16 in the series and is a heavy favorite to make it 15 of 17 against an already struggling Georgia offense that lost its top running back, Thomas Brown, two weeks ago.
Georgia’s only hope is to pressure Florida quarterback Chris Leak and force turnovers, the strategy that turned the tide in the Gators’ lone defeat to Auburn two weeks ago.
NO. 7 TEXAS (7-1, 4–0 BIG 12) AT TEXAS TECH (5-3, 2–2)
(Saturday,7 p.m., CBS)
Texas’s slim chance of playing for the national title was nearly snuffed out at Nebraska last Saturday before a miracle finish rescued the Longhorns. Texas should not require such heroics Saturday against Texas Tech, which has struggled with its pass-happy offense for much of the season.
The Red Raiders ended a two-game losing streak last week, breaking out for 42 points in a win over Iowa State. Still, this is a team that handed Big 12 weakling Colorado its only win of the season.
The win over Nebraska was a coming-of-age game for Texas quarterback Colt McCoy. The redshirt freshman led the Longhorns from behind in a noisy and hostile environment, and in cold weather and blustery conditions. If McCoy maintains his high-level play, Texas could sneak back into the BCS title picture, and will likely be one of the favorites next season.
Texas’s outstanding defensive front should be able to get to Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell and force him to hurry throws. That bodes well for the Texas secondary, which has shown some vulnerability to the big play but has also produced plenty of turnovers.
On offense, Texas has averaged 49 points in the last three outings against Texas Tech by exploiting the Raiders’ weak pass defense. Expect more of the same Saturday.
NO. 11 TENNESSEE (6-1, 2–1 SEC) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (5-2, 3–2)
(Saturday, 7:45 p.m., ESPN)
Forgive Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer if this is not his favorite portion of the Vols’ schedule. His team is coming off a hard-fought win over Alabama, a school whose fans hold Fulmer personally responsible for their most recent troubles with the NCAA after he served as a witness in a recruitingviolations case. Saturday, the Vols face South Carolina and Fulmer’s personal nemesis, Steve Spurrier.
While at Florida, Spurrier compiled a 7–3 mark against Fulmer, often wrecking the seasons of some of his best teams. And Spurrier made sure everyone knew it, as well. It was the “Old Ballcoach” who famously quipped, “You can’t spell Citrus without UT” in reference to the second-tier bowl game that the Vols were often relegated to.
Things got worse for Fulmer last year, as Spurrier and his Gamecocks put an exclamation point on Tennessee’s awful season with a 16–15 win in Knoxville that snapped a 12-game losing streak to the Vols.
A loss to South Carolina Saturday would be a bigger upset, as Tennessee has enjoyed a resurgent year led by junior quarterback Erik Ainge, while South Carolina has struggled somewhat in Spurrier’s second year and still faces a tough closing stretch to the schedule.
Look for Fulmer to exorcise some of his Spurrier demons, keeping Tennessee alive in the SEC and national-title hunts.
Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.