One Win Doesn’t Solve Detroit’s Serious Problems

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The New York Sun

Once again, the Detroit Pistons had their backs to the wall, and once again they responded. Just as they did when they trailed 3-1 to Orlando in 2003, 3-2 to the Nets in 2004, 3-2 to the Heat in 2005,and 3-2 to the Cavs in 2006,the Pistons saved their best basketball for when they needed it most and rolled to a 91-78 Game 5 win over Miami on Wednesday night.

So everything’s better now, right?

Not so fast. For starters, Detroit still needs to beat the Heat twice more in the Eastern Conference finals to avoid elimination, including tonight’s Game 6 in Miami (8 p.m., TNT).That’s hardly a given considering how the last two games in South Beach went, with Dwyane Wade scoring at will and the Pistons firing bricks from all over the court.

But the bigger reason for skepticism is that Detroit’s 13-point win looks much less impressive after you break it down. Essentially, the only difference between the two clubs was their free-throw accuracy. Miami shot a pitiful 6-for-20, while the Pistons were a sizzling 23-for-26.Considering there was virtually no difference between the two clubs in that department during the regular season, file this one under ‘F’ for fluke. Had the two teams shot at their customary rates, the 91-78 Detroit waltz turns into a much less convincing 87-86 nail-biter.

It’s true that the Pistons did a few things to signify their pulse might be returning. The most notable was Ben Wallace’s spectacular block of Shaquille O’Neal to force a jump ball in the third quarter – the kind of high-energy defensive play we’d seen little of from Detroit in the series. O’Neal claimed afterward that Wallace fouled him, and indeed on replays he did seem to bump him with the body. But that’s hardly the point – absolutely nobody caps Shaq on a dunk attempt like that, and it was about the first concrete proof we’d seen in the playoffs that Wallace really is the defensive player of the year.

Still, Detroit is going to need to play even better defense in the final two games if it has any hope of winning either contest. For starters, the Heat aren’t likely to shoot 30% from the line again. Even if Shaq took all their free throws they’d have trouble faring that poorly.

But the bigger reason Detroit’s defense has so much pressure on it is because the offense has completely evaporated. That was as true in Game 5 as it has been since the second half of Game 2 against Cleveland. In those 11-plus games, the Pistons haven’t hit the 100-point mark once and are averaging an abysmal 20.6 points per fourth quarter.

The most troubling aspect of the offensive malaise is that Detroit’s best players have the problem. The Pistons have been maligned for having a weak bench and relying too heavily on their starting five during the past two seasons, but in the playoffs they’ve had the opposite dilemma.

The bench has played as well as it ever has – Antonio McDyess is shooting 57.6% and averaging nearly a rebound every three minutes, pesky guard Lindsey Hunter is getting nearly a steal game in limited action, and swingman Maurice Evans is shooting the lights out (7-of-11 on 3-pointers, 53 points in just 85 minutes).

The starters, on the other hand, have been way off. Only one member of that group, small forward Tayshaun Prince, has maintained his regular-season production level. The other four, all of whom made the All-Star team incidentally, have been way off their game.

Rasheed Wallace, since spraining his ankle in Game 4 against Cleveland, has had games of 3-for-11, 3-for-13, 4-for-16, 3-for-10, and, in Game 5, 3-for-11. In that time he has only one 20-point game and one 10-rebound game, and matched his regular-season scoring average just twice. On Wednesday, he scored seven points in 41 minutes.

Richard Hamilton also rolled an ankle in the playoffs – in the first round against Milwaukee – and also saw his effectiveness diminish. In the five games against Miami, his best performance was a 9-for-22 in Game 1. A 49.1% shooter during the season, he’s at 39.9% in the past two rounds. In Game 5,he shot 7-for-21 and had four turnovers.

Chauncey Billups was Detroit’s best player in the regular season, earning MVP consideration for his clutch shooting and mistake-free play. Much like Wallace, he’s matched his scoring average only three times in the last 13 games and had double-figure assists just twice.

Ben Wallace, despite the spectacular block on Shaq, continues to be worthless offensively. He’s hit double figures only once in 17 playoff games – a feat he managed 24 times in the regular season – and has made seven of his past 37 free-throw attempts.

Together, the offensive “big three” of Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Hamilton shot 13-for-44 in Game 5. In other words, the scoreboard obscured the reality that the players who defined Deeee-troit basketball during the past three years showed little signs of resuscitation.

Thus, despite the impressive win in Game 5, the Pistons’ Eastern Conference reign will end tonight unless Messrs. Wallace, Wallace, Billups, and Hamilton suddenly rediscover their mojo. Wednesday’s result doesn’t change the fact that they haven’t found it yet.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.


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