A basic rule of thumb in the NBA is that as the weather gets colder, coaching seats get hotter. That said, this week’s snowfall was a bad omen for the league’s coaching fraternity. Given the profession’s infamous lack of job security, there’s little doubt heads will soon be rolling. The first ax of the season normally falls by Christmas, and if the powers that be follow the script, several other teams will make changes between then and the ides of March.

While Knicks coach Larry Brown and Nets head man Lawrence Frank appear safe despite their teams’ struggles, several others around the league are one bad week from the gallows. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the league’s most tenuous situations and handicap the likelihood of a change:

SAM MITCHELL, TORONTO I talked to some other writers before the season about which coach might be the first one fired, and let’s just say Sam’s name came up a lot. He had a stormy first year in Toronto and is on his way to an even worse one this season with the Raptors mired at 3-17. Mitchell can be forgiven for his team’s lack of talent – the blame for that lies with general manager Rob Babcock.

But it’s harder to overlook the recurring strategic gaffes late in games, particularly his unwillingness to substitute offense for defense – an NBA Coaching 101 maneuver. Even worse, the Raptors’ listless defensive play is a reflection of Mitchell’s inability to motivate. Even our gentle neighbors to the north get irritated eventually, so if Mitchell can’t unearth a winning streak soon, he’ll be punched out before Boxing Day.

MIKE WOODSON, ATLANTA Woodson’s team entered the year with low expectations, and has managed to under perform them. Comingoffa13-winseason, the hope in Atlanta was merely for respectability – 25 wins, perhaps, or 30 if they got lucky. Not so much. The Hawks are on pace to go 9-73, which would tie for the worst record of all time. The struggles have come despite the free-agent additions of Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachulia, and the arrival of Marvin Williams and Salim Stoudamire via the draft.

It’s not all on Woodson – he didn’t decide to pick Williams ahead of Chris Paul, for instance, and it certainly wasn’t his fault backup center Jason Collier died just before the season. Nevertheless, no coach who loses this much survives for long.

RICK ADELMAN, SACRAMENTO Until this year, Adelman’s tenure in Sacramento had been wildly successful, and that’s the only thing keeping him employed right now. The Kings were expected to win the Pacific Division, but have instead ridden a series of disinterested performances into last place. The team’s halfhearted defense has been particularly disturbing, but even the Kings’ trademark high-post offense has lacked it’s usual precision this year. With Adelman in the last year of his contract anyway, expect Sacramento to make a move if things don’t improve noticeably by the New Year.

JEFF VAN GUNDY, HOUSTON Houston was supposed to be one of the top three challengers in the West, but instead the Rockets are at the bottom of the heap. An early injury to Tracy McGrady and the sudden aging of nearly every backcourt player conspired to make the Rockets woefully inept at the offensive end, leaving them at 5-12 heading into last night’s meeting with Sacramento.

The Rockets haven’t played as badly as their record indicates and are 5-4 when McGrady plays, which should earn Van Gundy a stay of execution. But if they endure a losing skid with Mc-Grady in the lineup, Ol’ Bag Eyes will quickly find himself rejoining Marv in the TNT broadcast booth.

BOB WEISS, SEATTLE The new Sonics coach seems to have weathered the worst of the storm. Seattle lost consecutive games by 25, 37, and 41 points in the season’s second week, which isn’t the type of behavior expected from a division champion returning most of its key players. Since then, things have improved a bit – Seattle is back within hailing distance of .500 and knocked off the Cavs and Pacers earlier this week. Nonetheless, clouds remain on the horizon, and not just because it’s winter in Seattle.

Seattle is allowing more than 104 points per game, the worst mark in the NBA, and the schedule gets very rough starting in late December, with dates in Phoenix, Minnesota, and Denver, among others. Don’t be surprised if the Sonics whack Weiss in January – and don’t be shocked if former Knicks coach Lenny Wilkens, doing TV work in Seattle already, fills the vacant seat.

STAN VAN GUNDY, MIAMI The Heat have stumbled out to a 10-9 start, and even though Shaquille O’Neal’s absence is a major reason why, this team still has issues. Antoine Walker is adjusting badly to his new role, while a lack of shooters is allowing defenses to collapse against Dwyane Wade’s drives.

Then there’s the Pat Riley factor. Miami’s team president made comments over the summer suggesting he’d like to get back into coaching, allowing his coach to dangle in the breeze for a while before mustering a vote of confidence. Nobody will be the least bit surprised if Riley rides in to save the day after an early-season slump.

NATE MCMILLAN,PORTLAND McMillan isn’t likely to get the boot yet because the Blazers just shelled out serious cash to lure him away from Seattle, but Portland’s start hasn’t been promising. While it was understood that his young team wasn’t ready to make a playoff push, efforts like Tuesday’s 130-85 loss to Phoenix aren’t quite what the folks in Portland had in mind. His team is 5-13, with two of the wins coming against the Hawks. Plus, star forward Darius Miles will miss the next two months with knee surgery. If the losing doesn’t abate, owner Paul Allen might take a tax write-off for some of his Microsoft money and eat the remaining years on McMillan’s deal.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the “2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.” He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.