The first two rounds of the NBA playoffs were the best ever, hands down. Thankfully, it doesn’t appear the final rounds will be any less exciting.

The first two games of the respective conference finals were enough to confirm that, with road teams stealing victories in both. Miami escaped with a 91-86 win in Detroit, while Phoenix stole a 121-118 victory at Dallas. However, those two seemingly equivalent outcomes were, in fact, miles apart in terms of what they signify for the rest of the series.

In Miami’s case, it’s entirely plausible that the Heat will maintain the upper hand for the entire series. A few things stick out in Miami’s favor. First of all, the difference in regular-season win-loss records between the two teams belies how well each has played of late. From the mid-season point, Miami actually won more games, and the Pistons’ offensive struggles in the Cleveland series point to a vulnerability that could ultimately undermine them.

Several other factors are working in the Heat’s favor. For starters, Detroit hasn’t been able to guard Dwyane Wade all season, and that state of affairs didn’t change in Game 1. Wade made 9-of-11 shots from the field and scored 25 points in 26 minutes; had he not been saddled with foul trouble he might have doubled that tally.

Moreover, the teams got different answers from their “question mark” players. Answering in the affirmative was the Heat’s Alonzo Mourning, who had performed poorly, frequently looking winded, in the second round against New Jersey. Mourning performed so poorly against the Nets that he twice got an early hook in favor of little-used Michael Doleac, and considering his history of health problems, many wondered if he’d give the Heat any useful minutes against Detroit.

Mourning answered his critics in 16 enthusiastic minutes in Game 1. Not only did he make all three of his shots from the field, but he provided a white-hot spark at the defensive end. Mourning blocked two shots, grabbed a steal, and plucked four defensive boards in his limited time, helping Miami’s second unit maintain a lead with Shaquille O’Neal on the bench.

Detroit’s big question mark didn’t work out as well. Forward Rasheed Wallace turned an ankle in Game 4 of the Cleveland series, and appeared to still be suffering the effects on Tuesday. Wallace converted only three of his 10 field goal attempts and grabbed a paltry three rebounds in 32 impact-free minutes on Tuesday, a key reason the Pistons’ offense once again short-circuited. Wallace didn’t miss any games with the bum ankle and was feeling chipper enough to score 24 points in Game 6 against the Cavs, but his overall numbers since the injury have been mediocre at best: 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 40.3% shooting.

There’s a certain irony to this, because this year’s Pistons had to be the healthiest team in NBA history. The starting five set a record by playing the first 73 games with the same unit, and the streak wasn’t broken by injury but by a one-game suspension for Wallace. By contrast, the past two seasons have seen one Detroit opponent after another laid low by injuries in the playoffs.

Wade’s rib injury in last year’s conference finals was the most notable, but also Karl Malone, Jermaine O’Neal, Jamaal Tinsley, and Manu Ginobili suffered injuries that were incredibly well-timed from Detroit’s perspective. Perhaps ‘Sheed’s malady is just a way to settle up their karmic deficit.

Speaking of maladies, the Western Conference finals already have changed course thanks to two key injuries in the opening contest. The first victim was Dallas’s Josh Howard, who lasted only five minutes before hurting his ankle. Though initially diagnosed as a sprain, it’s now being called a bone bruise, which is fantastic news for the Mavs.

This is almost exactly the same injury that the Nets’ Richard Jefferson suffered in Game 1of the Miami series. He came back to play at nearly full strength in Game 2 and was pretty much the same old RJ for the rest of the series. Since Howard is the Mavs’ second-best player, Dallas will hope for the same result.

The news isn’t as good for Phoenix, who lost Raja Bell to a calf strain late in the game. Bell’s injury is expected to keep him out for Game 2, and I suspect for much longer. Calf strains, though they sound harmless enough, typically keep players out of action for weeks rather than days, so it could be a crushing blow for the Suns.

It seems that Howard’s injury is the bigger news since he’s a better player than Bell, but the twist is that the Mavs are much better equipped to survive without Howard than the Suns are without Bell. Phoenix was down to a seven man rotation in its second-round series against the Clippers, and as their best perimeter defender, Bell was on the court for virtually the entire series. Without Bell, the Suns are down to six players who coach Mike D’Antoni trusts, compromising their ability to match up and deal with foul trouble or any further injuries.

Meanwhile, the Mavs are so abundantly deep at every position that any player other than Dirk Nowitzki is eminently replaceable. They’ve proven this already in the postseason, nearly beating San Antonio in Game 6 with Jason Terry suspended and then prevailing in overtime in Game 7 despite three players fouling out, including Howard. Losing him would be unfortunate, but the drop-off to Jerry Stackhouse and Marquis Daniels is relatively small.

So while the Suns can feel good about taking Game 1,they’re not nearly as comfortable as Miami right now. That’s especially true since a Suns win in the opener was hardly unexpected. Dallas’s tooth-and-nail battle with San Antonio, and the subsequent elation of jettisoning the monkey from its back, made it virtually guaranteed that Dallas would be flat for Game 1.They were, too, waltzing out to a first-half deficit and seemingly running out of gas in the final minutes.

Thus, Phoenix’s Game 1 victory has more the feel of a blind squirrel finding a nut than any kind of seismic shift in the balance of power between the two teams. Phoenix was going to have a hard time winning this series even if Bell was ready for Game 2 and Howard was the one on the sidelines, because the Mavs have so many advantages up and down the roster. With the tables turned and Bell the one sitting out, that task now seems virtually impossible.

It’s hard to know what to expect in a postseason that has thrown us enough twists and turns to make it feel more like the NCAA Tournament, but (tempting fate here), expect the rest of the conference finals to diverge sharply from their similar Game 1 outcomes. Miami has a great shot at preventing the Pistons from achieving an Eastern Conference three peat, but the same isn’t true of the Suns. Despite the Game 1 victory, the injury to Bell may put them in even worse shape than they were before tip-off.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.