Pacers Can Still Make Playoffs Without Stars
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The show must go on. While the basketball world continues to deal with the recriminations from Friday’s malice at the Palace, there remains the little fact that the Indiana Pacers have a season to play.
A title contender last Thursday, Indiana’s chances have taken a severe beating with the suspension of its top three scorers. The trio of Jermaine O’Neal, Ron Artest, and Stephen Jackson accounted for 62% of Indiana’s offense. While Indiana has outstanding depth, it’s a bit much to ask them to play 25 games without their superstar big man and survive the rest of the season without an All-Star defensive ace. Moreover, half the Pacers’ remaining roster is nursing injuries: Reggie Miller has a broken finger, Jonathan Bender has a sore knee, Jeff Foster is out with a hip problem, Anthony Johnson has an injured thumb, and Scot Pollard is an injured list mainstay.
That leaves the Pacers with a roster whose go-to guys will be point guard Jamaal Tinsley, power forward Austin Croshere, and shooting guard Fred Jones. It’s a testament to the Pacers’ depth that they can lose so many guys and still have three quality players to put on the floor, but they will be severely lacking in firepower. Around those three, Indiana is left with end-of-the-bench types like rookie David Harrison, one-time Nets scrub Eddie Gill, and little-used forward James Jones.
It’s easy to imagine the Pacers going 5-20 in the next 25 games. The implications for their playoff chances are critical, but not fatal. Since they were 7-2 at the time of the suspensions, a 5-20 mark without O’Neal would put the Pacers at 12-22 when O’Neal comes back. That means the Pacers probably need to go 29-19 once O’Neal returns to make the playoffs.
Fortunately for the Pacers, most of their other walking wounded come back around the same time, which means they could make a fairly stunning transformation around mid-January. With everyone healthy, they could easily garner the necessary 29 wins. The problem is that they have zero margin for error – another rash of injuries like this one will effectively end their season.
If the Pacers can somehow squeeze their way into the postseason, the suspensions could turn into a blessing in disguise. To begin with, the time off will allow O’Neal to rest his nagging foot injury. The All-Star forward is so competitive that he almost always plays hurt and has rarely given his body a chance to heal the past few seasons. He could take the floor as fresh as he’s ever been once this postseason rolls around.
Additionally, if the Pacers were able to qualify for the postseason, they would end up seeded low enough to avoid what seemed destined to be a second-round matchup against their rivals from Detroit. Because of the NBA’s new division alignment, the top three seeds each go to division winners. That seemed to portend that the winner of the Central Division would be the top seed and the runner-up would end up seeded fourth, resulting in a second-round meeting.
Indiana might still have to visit Detroit eventually, but a low berth does make their playoff path a bit easier – especially if they can earn the sixth seed and play the “champion” of the pathetic Atlantic Division (perhaps the Knicks) in the first round.
Of course, even if they can get back to the Eastern Conference finals, it appears unlikely that the Pacers will have Artest’s services. The league hasn’t clarified whether Artest will be eligible for the playoffs (“rest of the season” is as specific as they got), but all reports indicate that he isn’t. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year was off to a strong start in 2004-05, averaging a career-best 24.6 points per game on his fearless drives to the basket. Indiana can mostly replace his defense with the skills of Jones and Jonathan Bender, but filling in the scoring gap could be problematic.
The Pacers do have some options to try to improve their fate between now and then. Indiana can sign up to three players to fill in the suspended players’ spots, but the problem is that anyone who would be of value is already under contract. The most plausible options are players of the “talented wing-nut” variety, and given recent events, the Pacers would be loath to roll the dice on the likes of Keon Clark and Jayson Williams.
The other option would be to trade Artest, but this has its downsides, too. First, they would get pennies on the dollar for their All-Star forward and as a result, diminish their chances of contending in future seasons. With Artest and O’Neal still in their mid-20s and under contract for several more seasons, there’s no need to gamble the team’s future for a few extra wins this year. Nor is it clear whether the Pacers could acquire anyone better than the players already on their roster.
Overall, the Pacers are going to be absolutely terrible over the next 25 games, and a number of pundits may claim that their chances have been ruined. But once they get their players back, it will be relatively easy to climb back into the playoff race because of the low standard being set in the Eastern Conference. While their return to the playoffs is no longer a guarantee, they should be able to pull it off.
The bigger issue is whether they have enough juice left to contend for a title. Without Artest, the answer is probably no, especially if they draw the Pistons in the playoffs. It’s strange to see, but Indiana’s title hopes may now be in the hands of union chief Billy Hunter. His ability to get Artest’s suspension reduced could go a long way toward determining this year’s Eastern Conference champion.