As befits two teams with great offenses and terrible defenses, both previous meetings between these divisional rivals were high-scoring thrillers. Green Bay won both contests on last second field goals, yet 8-8 Minnesota rates as the better team according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings. The slumping Vikings even rate better using our weighted trend measure, which gives less consideration to early season performance. Does this auger a Vikings upset this weekend?

Probably not. The first two times these teams played each other, Minnesota safety Corey Chavous was on the field, and snow was not. Unfortunately for the Vikings, those situations are now reversed.

WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL

Given that both teams scored more than 400 points this season, the appropriate question is not whether they can score but whether there is any way to slow things down just a tiny bit.

The Green Bay secondary has suffered through a difficult year. Mike Sherman sent his best corner, Mike McKenzie, to New Orleans because of a personality clash and a contract dispute. Veteran Al Harris has struggled with the increased emphasis on illegal contact. Safety Darren Sharper was banged up for much of the year.

Expect Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper to pick on the more inexperienced members of this unit. Rookie Ahmad Carroll has made some big plays, especially when the Packers use him as a blitzer off the edge. But while 6-foot, 3-inch cornerback Michael Hawthorne has the size to match up with the Vikings’ Randy Moss, he doesn’t have the speed. And safeties Bhawoh Jue and Mark Roman both struggled throughout the season.

Up front, defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is quick enough to rush out side but often gets manhandled by stronger left tackles. When Gbaja-Biamila fails to rush the quarterback, the secondary gets torched.

At least Green Bay can limit the run, thanks to mammoth defensive tackle Grady Jackson. But Jackson’s knees are hurting, and recent opponents have successfully run wherever Jackson is not. That’s why outside linebacker Na’il Diggs, whose athleticism enables him to chase running backs from sideline to sideline, is so important. In two games he missed with an injury, the Packers gave up 156 rushing yards to Detroit’s Kevin Jones and 165 to Jacksonville’s Fred Taylor.

Regardless, the Vikings are unlikely to test the Green Bay run defense because their passing game is so deep and diversified. Nate Burleson emerged as a deep threat when Moss was injured, and remains one now that he has returned. Backup tight end Jermaine Wiggins, pressed into service when Jim Kleinsasser was lost for the year, has also played well.

Many Vikings drives start with quick-strike touchdowns; those that don’t end up lasting forever, because Minnesota’s third-down completion rate is by far the best in the NFL. The Vikings’ sole weakness on offense is their propensity for unfortunate turnovers in the red zone.

WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL

The Vikings’ defense is even shoddier than Green Bay’s. Their performance on third down was the NFL’s worst this season – and that was before Chavous broke his left elbow in the season finale against Washington. Chavous’s knack for sniffing out where opposing offenses are going makes him the “quarterback” of the Minnesota defense. His absence will render Brett Favre’s task even easier, and Favre will have plenty of opportunities to throw to one of the breakout receiving stars of 2004, Javon Walker.

The Packers will run more often than the Vikings even though Ahman Green has declined somewhat since last year’s career year. He still runs behind one of the league’s best run-blocking offensive lines, particularly when left guard Mike Wahle pulls to the right. Look for the Packers to also line up a run-oriented package that uses tackle Kevin Barry as a tight end. The Packers often use this formation to force opposing safeties to stay closer to the line of scrimmage, and then surprise the defense with the long ball.

The one Viking defender to watch might be Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kevin Williams. While Green Bay’s offensive line is better as a unit than the Minnesota defensive line, Williams was fifth in the league in sacks and is plays the run far better than his linemates. He’ll be matched against Packers Pro Bowl right guard Marco Rivera, and Williams clearly got the better of this individual battle during the Christmas Eve showdown.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Packers hold key advantages in two areas: field goals and kick returns. Ryan Longwell is not only more accurate than the ancient Morten Andersen, he is also used to kicking in cold weather. And Minnesota’s season-long difficulty covering kickoffs has particularly hurt them in the two prior games between these teams. In Week 10, Robert Ferguson had a 55-yard return that led to a touchdown and a 39-yard return that set up the game-winning field goal. In Week 16, Antonio Chatman set up a field goal with a 59-yard return late in the first half.

OUTLOOK

Minnesota’s problems when playing outside are not a myth, and neither are the more general struggles of dome teams playing on the road in cold weather. The Vikings are 2-20 in their last 22 games on grass, and both wins came when the temperature was over 70 degrees. If the Vikings could not overcome these trends during losses at Chicago in Week 13 and Washington in Week 17, it is difficult to imagine them turning it around against a Packers team that has already beaten them twice this season.

The Pick: Green Bay

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith of Football Outsiders provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.