Padres on Trading Block, But Stats May Be Skewed
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
The San Diego Padres’ CEO, Sandy Alderson, acknowledged the obvious yesterday, that his failing team would be selling at the trading deadline. Despite coming painfully close to a postseason berth in 2007, with an 89-74 record, this year’s Padres team has the worst record in the National League, at 32-51, has lost eight straight games — including being swept at home by the Seattle Mariners, the team with the American League’s worst record — and could lose 100 games.
“It’s probably easier to see us as sellers at this point,” Alderson said in a story reported in the San Diego Union-Tribune. “If we were to be buyers, it would be hard to choose among catcher, shortstop, outfielder, starting pitcher, half the bullpen. There’s not a shopping cart big enough.”
For teams such as the Yankees and Mets, who are competing for postseason berths, the Padres’ flea market will have enough interesting parts available, particularly in the pitching department, to get Brian Cashman and Omar Minaya browsing, but it’s not clear that they should buy. The key problem is evaluating for the distortions caused by the Padres’ extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark. While pitchers such as the righty Greg Maddux and the lefty Randy Wolf, both pending free agents, figure to be available, neither are what they seem.
While the instant Hall of Famer Maddux’s 3.52 ERA is impressive for a 42-year-old, his ERA is 2.45 at home, 4.75 on the road. His hits to innings pitched in the ballpark of fish tacos amounts to 45 in 55 innings. In the rest of America, Maddux has allowed 61 hits in 47.1 innings. Despite this, with Maddux’s still-excellent control and competitive mentality, he could be a good risk for a team with a strong defense. The only obstacle is that Maddux has no-trade protection and could veto a move he didn’t like. The Yankees, who expressed interest in Maddux after the 2003 season, may not want to go down that road again.
Because of his relative youth, Wolf figures to be the more attractive of the starting pitchers, yet
Wolf’s home-road disparity is even more dramatic, with a 2.70 ERA at home and a 5.84 ERA on the road. This should not be surprising; when park effects are taken into account, it has been years since Wolf has posted anything like an above-average ERA in a full season. Full disclosure: phrasing things that way is cheating; with his many injuries, Wolf hasn’t had a full season since 2003. His 4.28 ERA in 2004 was slightly above average, but since then he’s been all injuries and mediocre pitching. His ERA over the last four years, including this season, is 4.70.
Now, keep in mind that everything is relative. If you’re the Yankees, and your current in-house choice for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation is Darrell Rasner, Dan Giese, Sidney Ponson, and other marginal types likely to allow six runs a game, then Wolf’s likely 5.00 ERA might be of some small help to you. The larger question is what kind of prospect or prospects would be worth spending to get that.
Ironically, the real possibilities for a Padres-powered boost is in position players — ironic because aside from first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who is unlikely to be dealt, few of the current Padres appear to be able to hit at all. Again, though, park illusions are the key. On the surface, right fielder Brian Giles, 37, looks to be having a good but not especially impactful season at .300 AVG/.399 OBA/.438 SLG. Look at the home-road splits, though, and you see that Giles is just as good as ever, batting .333/.426/.484 across the National League and select American League ballparks, but only .275/.379/.404 at home. Last season’s split was more dramatic, but essentially more of the same, with Giles neutered in San Diego (or by San Diego) at .237/.345/.320 but a savage barbarian on the road at .299/.374/.496.
Giles, who at season’s end can either be set free or retained for 2009 with the pickup of a $9 million option, could be an asset to any number of ballclubs, including those contenders in his native California, the Angels and Dodgers (if the latter can truly be called a contender). He could also help the Yankees as a designated hitter if Hideki Matsui’s absence threatens to be a lengthy one and would be a boon to the Mets’ outfield in either corner. However, Giles does have limited no-trade protection, and his willingness to relocate might depend both on the promise of his option being picked up and how eager he is to leave his homeland for a possible championship ring.
The good news is that with the Padres’ needs being so many, even the limited choices offered by the Mets and Yankees farm systems should hold something of interest to them.
Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.