CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-5) AT CHICAGO BEARS (11-5)
(Sunday, 4:30 p.m., FOX)

When the Bears smothered the Panthers in a 13-3 win in Week 11, they announced to the NFL that their stifling defense and their 7-3 record were the real deal. Now the Panthers are back, and they are red hot. In the last two weeks, Carolina outscored the Falcons and Giants by a combined 67-11 and outgained them by a combined 395 yards.

WHEN THE PANTHERS HAVE THE BALL

For most of the year, Carolina’s offense has consisted of one player: wide receiver Steve Smith, who led the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. In Week 11, Chicago’s solution to the problems posed by Smith was to let him have his yards, while completely shutting down everything else.

On eight of Smith’s receptions, he gained seven yards or fewer, and only one of those was good for a first down. The Panthers offense had become so futile that they simply threw Smith short passes and screens in the desperate hope that he could single-handedly create a big play.

When the Bears took a 10-point firstquarter lead, the Panthers abandoned the ground game, running just four times in the second half. Chicago defensive tackles Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye embarrassed Panthers tackles Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton and ended up with a five sacks between them.

Nine weeks later, Carolina has resurrected its running game, with DeShaun Foster gaining over 130 yards in three of his last six games. But this week he’s not facing the porous Atlanta defense or a Giants defense missing its top four linebackers. Remove their meaningless final game, and the Bears allowed just 3.7 yards per carry.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

While you can question the improvement of the Panthers’ offense against a bad defense and an injured one, it is hard to question the improvement of their defense, which has shut down two 1,400-yard backs – Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn – in consecutive games. The Panthers held them to a combined 66 yards on 22 carries.

The Panthers also led the league in preventing successful short-yardage runs, while the Bears converted just 55% of these carries, 28th in the league.

The Panthers already ranked third in pass defense DVOA for the season, so this improvement by the run defense makes them the stingiest defense this side of, well, the Bears. And the quarterback they face, Rex Grossman, is one of the least experienced quarterbacks ever to start a playoff game.

Chicago’s passing game was completely impotent with rookie Kyle Orton at the helm, squandering all the great field position provided by the defense. Does Grossman improve things? He seemed to bring a spark when he entered at halftime against Atlanta, but he’s played a total of six quarters this season, so it is difficult to gauge his influence.

Offensive success is often decided by what happens on third down,but that is especially true in this game. DVOA ranks the Carolina defense sixth on first down, first on second down, but 25th on third downs. Chicago’s track record doesn’t suggest they can take advantage of this, since the Bears ranked 28th in offensive DVOA on third down. Third down is when you bring in your multiple-receiver packages, and Carolina is a top-five defense against starting receivers but 20th against slot receivers. If any Chicago receiver makes a big play in this game, it is likely to be the little-used speedster Bernard Berrian.

OUTLOOK

A matchup of great defenses often becomes a battle of field position, and Carolina has a major advantage on special teams. The Panthers rank third this year in field position gained from both net kickoffs and net punts. The Bears have a rookie field goal kicker who has hit just two of seven field goal tries from over 40 yards, and has yet to try a field goal of more than 50 yards.

After the Bears harass Carolina into a turnover or a punt, they still need to get the ball at least to the 25-yard line to feel comfortable about scoring.

This game is likely to turn on a timely turnover or the lucky bounce of a fumble. But the Panthers are slightly more likely to be closer to the end zone when the lucky bounce goes their way.

The Pick: Panthers