Every year, a handful of NFL teams begin the year on the wrong foot, only to hear commentators deliver the numbers on how unlikely it will be for them to turn things around. This year, however, it seems nobody was listening.

Only eight teams in NFL history have made the playoffs after beginning the season 1-4. But that number will surely rise once the 2004 season is in the books. Thanks in part to the mediocrity of the NFC, six different teams are currently in playoff contention despite starting 1-4 or worse. Green Bay (7-5) and Cincinnati (6-6) began 1-4. Chicago (5-7), Tampa Bay (5-7), and Buffalo (6-6) began 1-5. And Carolina (5-7) has won four straight since a 1-7 start to make the most stunning climb back into the postseason picture.

The Panthers’ turnaround is notable not only because the hole they’re climbing out of is so deep, but also because injuries have altered the roster to the point that it barely resembles last year’s NFC championship squad. Carolina lost last season’s top receiver, Steve Smith, its top two running backs, Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster, and its most important defensive player, Kris Jenkins. But new players have ably stepped forward to fill their roles, including rookie receiver Keary Colbert and fullback-turned-halfback Nick Goings.

Frequently, when teams reverse a poor start, it is partly the effect of a schedule filled with strong opponents early and weaker ones late. That is certainly the case with the Panthers. Their first eight opponents have a combined record of 57-38 (not including last night’s Seattle contest). Their final eight opponents have a combined record of 38-58, and that includes a St. Louis team that is 1-6 outside its own division.

The transformations of these teams are also a valuable reminder that, contrary to old school wisdom, the pass is far more important than the run. Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, for example, averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt and tossed 11 interceptions during the Panthers’ 1-7 start. That has improved to 7.8 net yards per pass attempt with only two interceptions during their current four-game winning streak.

Carson Palmer averaged 4.5 net yards per pass attempt during the Bengals’ 1-4 start, but 7.1 net yards per pass attempt in their subsequent 5-2 run. His steady season-long improvement was certified Sunday when he engineered a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.

Even more important, five of these six resurgent teams have dramatically improved their pass defense since their poor starts. Tampa (4th), Chicago (6th), Buffalo (8th), Carolina (14th), and Cincinnati (15th) have all fielded an above-average pass defense over the past eight weeks.

Ironically, the one team that has not seen its turnaround driven by pass defense is the team with the best chance of reaching the playoffs: the Packers. Donovan McNabb’s effortless dissection of Green Bay’s zone coverage during Sunday’s humbling 47-17 debacle showed that the Packers’ pass defense, though statistically improved from its 1-4 start, is still one of the worst in the NFL.

Improvement on the ground has to be a lot bigger than improvement through the air in order to have the same effect, but that’s the story in Green Bay. Though five weeks, the Packers allowed 5.3 yards per carry, 29th in the NFL. Since Week 6, they’ve allowed just 3.8 yards per carry, good for sixth in the league. The Green Bay ground game has had a similar boost on offense, climbing from 3.9 yards per carry over the first five weeks to 5.4 yards per carry in the eight weeks since.

As bad as they looked on Sunday, the Packers still have the inside track on a playoff spot. At 7-5, they share the top of the NFC North with the Vikings, and whichever team does not win the division will probably qualify as the first wild card.

The battle for the second wild card comes down to whichever team finishes second in the NFC West (Seattle or St. Louis) and a series of teams that are currently 5-7. St. Louis may have beaten league doormat San Francisco this week, but it has lost its last four out-of-division games by an average of 21 points and finishes its schedule against Philadelphia and the Jets. Most likely, one of these 5-7 clubs will pass the Rams or Seahawks for the second wild card spot, and that team will probably be one that began the year 1-5.

Of the five teams at 5-7, the two playing the best football also enjoy the easiest remaining schedules. Carolina has two relatively easy games, overrated St. Louis and New Orleans at home, and one difficult game, in Atlanta. Tampa Bay has two easier games, New Orleans at home and Arizona on the road, and one hard game, in San Diego. For the fourth game, on December 26, the two teams play in Tampa. The winner of that game will likely secure the second NFC wild card slot.

What about Buffalo and Cincinnati? This week’s results put both teams surprisingly close to playoff position, tied with Jacksonville at 6-6 and only a game behind Denver and Baltimore. Remaining games in New England and Philadelphia probably mean the Bengals will have to satisfy themselves with hopeful thoughts of 2005. But Buffalo, which boasts league-best special teams along with strong defense against both the run and the pass, is definitely in the mix.The Bills still get to play San Francisco and reeling Cleveland, giving them a good shot at joining division rivals New England and New York in the postseason.

So two or even three of these teams might make the playoffs. But don’t expect any of them to duplicate the legendary heroics of the 2001 Patriots, patron saints of slow-starting football teams. Those Patriots were the only team to ever start 1-3 and make the Super Bowl, let alone win it. Only two teams, the 2002 Titans and 1976 Steelers, ever made it to the conference championship after a 1-4 start. After all, seasons that start slowly usually end pretty fast.