Patriots Top Division of Contrasts, While Jets Struggle for Wild Card

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The New York Sun

The AFC East is a division of contrasts, home to both the defending Super Bowl champions and a team that crashed this season like a 50-car pileup from which nobody can avert their gaze. In between are a team whose strong offense has dragged a poor defense to a likely playoff berth, and a team whose poor offense has dragged a strong defense away from one.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-1)


Thanks to their loss two weeks ago to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots are no longer considered the team to beat in the AFC. But a deeper look reveals that it is New England and not Pittsburgh that stands as the best team in the NFL this year.


In fact, this year’s Patriots are better than the team that won the title last season because they are more balanced with the addition of running back Corey Dillon. Last year’s running back committee of Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk averaged 3.6 yards per carry; Dillon is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. He has also freed things up for Tom Brady, which is why 2004 has been the quarterback’s best season.


The entire team is as balanced as the offense. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric (DVOA), which breaks down each play of the season and compares it to NFL average based on situation and opponent, the Patriots are the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top 10 in rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense, and passing defense. The only weaknesses of the 2004 Patriots are kickoff coverage and punt returns.


There was some concern earlier this season that the Patriots had declined against the run, but they have allowed more than 110 yards on the ground only three times, and they rarely give up long runs. The pass defense, meanwhile, has overcome a score of injuries and continues its strong play despite missing both starting cornerbacks and playing wide receiver Troy Brown as the nickel back.


Coach Bill Belichick can mouth cliches about taking it one game at a time, needing to win the division, and so forth, but it is clear that New England’s true competition lives in the AFC North. Over the next seven games, the Pats must get one more win than Pittsburgh in order to host the AFC Championship game. Otherwise, even if the numbers say they are the better team, and even if the secondary returns to full health, getting past the Steelers and into the Super Bowl will be an uphill battle.


NEW YORK JETS (6-3)


Before the season, the recipe for the Jets seemed clear. The team needed a healthy Chad Pennington to return the offense to the top of the league, while the young defense had to show steady improvement. The early part of the season was supposed to offer an easy slate of opponents that would allow the Jets to build up wins and confidence before things got harder in the second half.


For eight weeks, the recipe was followed to the letter, with the added ingredient of a career year from running back Curtis Martin. But the team’s outlook has changed immensely in the last two weeks, as Pennington’s injury and two close losses all of a sudden made the race for a playoff spot a lot harder than it had to be. And as the team moves into a tough stretch of schedule, Jets fans will realize that their defensive improvement has been much smaller than they think, masked by a dramatically easy schedule.


According to conventional NFL rankings, the Jets have a top-10 defense because they have given up only 311 yards per game. They have allowed only 5.1 yards per play, the same as New England and Philadelphia. But the Jets have played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league – by a huge margin. According to DVOA ratings, which take opponent strength into account, the Jets’ defense still ranks as one of the worst in the league, despite improvement over 2003.


Now things get tougher. The next two games against Cleveland and Arizona would be easy victories at home with Pennington at quarterback; on the road with Quincy Carter under center, they become challenging. The Jets also must travel to St. Louis and Pittsburgh.


Despite the tribulations that lie ahead, our statistical projections favor the Jets in the battle for a wild card spot. But in a conference where eight different teams have at least six wins, the room for error is minimal.


BUFFALO BILLS (3-6)


If this team played in the NFC East, they would probably be a leading playoff contender. Buffalo’s combination of quality defense and incompetent offense would certainly fit into a conference that contains teams like Washington, Chicago, and Tampa Bay. But playing in the same division as the Patriots, who pounded the Bills 29-6 on Sunday, is another story.


Buffalo’s run defense has been stalwart all season, Sunday night notwithstanding. Prior to this week, they had not allowed a 100-yard game to a running back all season. The pass defense has improved over the past few weeks as well. The Bills’ one defensive weak ness – third downs – is an important one, however. The Bills have the league’s fourth-best defense on first and second down, but are ranked only 24th on third down.


Optimism about the offense is grounded in age rather than performance. Quarterback-of-the-future J.P. Losman still is not healthy enough to consider starting him, and running back Willis McGahee hasn’t really been much better than the veteran he replaced, Travis Henry.


The Bills still get a chance to play spoiler over the next two weeks, when they meet NFC West front-runners St. Louis and Seattle. After those games, it will be time to sit Drew Bledsoe down and begin the J.P. Losman era.


MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-8)


Every NFL fan is familiar with the litany of events that ruined the Dolphins’ season, but the biggest reason for this team’s failure does not make headlines. The task of rebuilding this franchise must begin not with a new quarterback, a new running back, or new receivers, but with the offensive line.


Miami has tried two different quarterbacks and approximately 342 different running backs, and the same problems subsist because the linemen – a mixture of career backups and underachieving youngsters – remain remarkably subpar. Only Detroit has seen its running backs stopped for zero yards or a loss more often, and only the Giants have seen their quarterbacks sacked more often.


The Dolphins had a top-five defense last season and continued to have a top five defense for the early part of this year. Then fatigue set in. Over the first five games of the season, Miami gave up only 4.2 yards per play, with five turnovers. Over the next four games they gave up 6.0 yards per play, with only one turnover.


The fact that offensive failure leads to defensive fatigue is also visible if you look at the Dolphins defense by quarter. Over the first nine games of the season, Miami has allowed 4.5 yards per play in the first quarter, 4.9 in the second quarter,5.1 in the third quarter, and 5.5 in the fourth quarter. They also have caused no fumbles and intercepted no passes in the fourth quarter. By the end of each game, they are simply exhausted because they are always on the field.


Believe it or not, there is hope here. If Miami spends its top draft picks and free agent dollars on offensive linemen that give their skill players enough time to be mediocre, they can ride their defense back to respectability in 2005.



Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.


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