Paul’s the Best Choice in a Tight MVP Field

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

NBA award ballots are due this week, and voters have a dilemma on their hands. Once again, the MVP trophy in particular presents a conundrum, as four candidates have put themselves ahead of the pack. Boston’s Kevin Garnett, Cleveland’s LeBron James, New Orleans’s Chris Paul, and the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant all would be worthy recipients, making me wonder once again why the league doesn’t give separate awards for East and West the way baseball does.

If forced to choose, however, I would have to put Paul at the top of my ballot. Using my Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Paul is having the best season by a player 6 feet, 3 inches or shorter since the league began tracking individual turnovers in 1974–75. His averages of 21.1 points, 11.6 assists, and 2.7 steals are even more impressive once you consider the fact that the Hornets play the fifth-slowest pace in the league, and these numbers have helped put the Hornets into a dead heat with the Lakers atop the Western Conference.

Alas, it appears that Bryant will end up winning, based on his superior Q rating and the fact that the Lakers are likely to end up as the West’s top seed. This would not be the biggest travesty in award history, but it’s a little weird that he’ll win the award this year when he had neither the best individual season nor the best team.

That latter point is why I think Garnett’s candidacy has been underplayed. Yes, the Celtics played great even when he missed a couple weeks with an abdominal strain, but his intensity was what fueled Boston’s unbelievably strong defense from the get-go. Unfortunately, he’ll likely have to settle for the Defensive Player of the Year trophy.

That’s more than James will get. Though he’s the best individual player in the game and will beat out Paul for the league lead in PER, the disappointing season by James’s Cavs and his own absence from six games at midseason will combine to leave him no higher than fourth on most MVP ballots.

As for other honors, Kevin Durant of Seattle and Manu Ginobili of San Antonio are shoo-ins for Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year, respectively. A more interesting debate surrounds Coach of the Year. New Orleans’ Byron Scott is likely to end up winning, but I would argue the Lakers’ Phil Jackson — who had to keep Kobe Bryant onside during the early-season trade demands and navigated through injuries to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol — had a more impressive body of work.

Finally, the Most Improved Player trophy is almost always a head-scratcher. There appears to be momentum for Orlando’s Hedo Turkoglu to win, even though he played nearly as well two years ago. In terms of genuine improvement, Paul has as strong a case as anyone, but nobody appears to be considering him strongly for the honor.

Of course, we have bigger things to ponder this week. The playoffs start Saturday and we’re looking at the final edition of the power rankings. Here’s how they stack up:

1. BOSTON CELTICS (64–16) (LW:1): Garnett should win Defensive Player of the Year, but point guard Rajan Rondo should join him on the league’s All-Defense team. The ball-hawking pest has been an underrated force for the smothering Celtics.

2. DETROIT PISTONS (57–23) (2): You can’t weight their recent results too seriously when they’re blatantly resting their starters for the playoff push. When the curtain goes up next week, they’ll be ready.

3. UTAH JAZZ (53–27) (3): With wins in its final two games against Houston and San Antonio, Utah will take over the no. 3 seed in the West and start the playoffs at home — something that didn’t seem possible as recently as a week ago.

4. LOS ANGELES LAKERS (56–25) (5): They will wrap up home-court advantage and the top seed in the West with a win over Sacramento tonight; it would likely seal Kobe Bryant’s MVP campaign as well.

5. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (55–25) (4): Speaking of Sacramento, the Hornets’ loss there Saturday likely cost them the top seed and Paul the MVP trophy. As great as Paul has been, one has to worry that he’s appeared to be out of gas in April.

6 HOUSTON ROCKETS (54–26) (9): While we’re discussing awards, can we finally get Shane Battier on the All-Defense team? He’s been the key stopper on the league’s second-best defensive team, but mysteriously has never been honored.

7. PHOENIX SUNS (53–27) (7): Will the real Suns please stand up? After an 11–3 stretch had them singing “Kumbaya” about the Shaq trade, they had a nine-point fourth quarter meltdown against Dallas and were outclassed in a loss to Houston.

8. DENVER NUGGETS (49–32) (12): A season-ending home game against Memphis provides an easy opportunity to clinch the West’s final playoff spot, and Denver can still steal the seventh seed should Dallas fall in its season finale.

9. ORLANDO MAGIC (50–30) (10): It’s hard to justify moving them up in a week when they lost to both the Knicks and the T’wolves. But in between they blasted Chicago twice by a combined 52 points, and the teams around them are faltering.

10. DALLAS MAVERICKS (50–31) (8): They’ll be a dangerous lower seed, but weekend losses to the Blazers and the Sonics threaten to push them down to the eighth seed and a difficult first-round pairing against the Lakers.

11. S A N A N TO N I O S P U RS (54–26) (6): That wasn’t an aberration on Sunday: The Spurs’ offense has been a mess for most of the past month, including a disturbing inability to produce any points after halftime.

12. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (48–32) (11): Baited by the Nuggets’ zone into a three-point derby, the Warriors fell at home in a must-win game on Thursday. Barring a miracle, they’ll now go down as the best lottery team in NBA history.

13. WASHINGTON WIZARDS (42–38) (15): The recent return of Gilbert Arenas seems to give the Wiz an upper hand in a first-round playoff rematch against Cleveland. Agent Zero scored 20 off the pine in a rousing win over Philly on Saturday.

14. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (40–40) (13): The season as a whole was a success, but the Sixers lost some steam in April. Home losses to Atlanta and Indy are likely to result in a no. 7 seed and a quick exit at the hands of Detroit.

15. TORONTO RAPTORS (40–40) (16): They’re an ugly 8–16 in their past 24 games. But despite the late-season flameout, the Raptors are likely to end up with a winnable first-round playoff series against Orlando.

16. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (44–36) (14): I’m not sure why everyone seems so afraid of this team in the playoffs. They’ve allowed more points than they’ve scored and beaten only one team with a winning record since February 23.

17. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (40–40) (17): Solid efforts to defeat the Lakers and the Mavs at home this week put a nice cap on season for one of the league’s up-and-coming teams; they’ll clinch a .500 mark with a win over Memphis tonight.

18. ATLANTA HAWKS (37–43) (18): Hawks’ magic number for a playoff spot is one, which in reality becomes zero once you realize they play Miami on the last day of the season.

19. 42 SACRAMENTO KINGS (38–42) (19): They won’t reach .500, but a resurgence next year doesn’t seem out of the question.
Since March 9, the Kings are 11–7 with wins over the Lakers, Hornets, Nuggets, Rockets, and Warriors.

20. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (31–49) (21): It’s a shame rookie coach Sam Vincent needed three-quarters of the season to figure out the playing rotation, because now the right guys are playing and they’re 12–10 since March 1 against a tough schedule.

21. INDIANA PACERS (35–45) (20): A home loss against the Bobcats on Saturday pretty much killed any hopes of catching Atlanta for the East’s final playoff spot. But Jim O’Brien’s crew still won about 10 more games than anyone expected.

22. CHICAGO BULLS (31–49) (23): If they could just figure out how to play all their games against Cleveland they might be okay. Since mid-March, the Bulls are 2–0 against the Cavs, but 3–11 against the rest of the NBA.

23. NEW JERSEY NETS (33–47) (22): We knew the closing schedule would be tough, but these guys aren’t exactly finishing with a bang, eh? The last three losses have been by 19, 21, and 28.

24. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (22–58) (25): Forward Rudy Gay is another player with a good shot at winning the Most Improved Player trophy. He’s nearly doubled his scoring average from 10.9 per game to 20.3.

25. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (21–59) (26): Here’s an encouraging sign: Second-year guard Randy Foye is averaging 17.4 points and 5.3 assists in eight April games.

26. MILWAUKEE BUCKS (26–54) (24): The Bucks hired former Pistons assistant GM John Hammond to take over as their new general manager, providing the franchise’s only piece of positive news in several months.

27. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (23–57) (27): The rust is obvious, but Elton Brand has looked reasonably spry in his return from a torn Achilles. He’s averaging 19.0 points and 8.0 boards in six games since coming back.

28. NEW YORK KNICKS (23–57) (28): Friday’s loss to Atlanta ended their three-game winning streak, but rookie Wilson Chandler (18 points, eight rebounds) gave another encouraging effort.

29. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS (19–62) (29): A release of e-mails showing owner Clay Bennett enthusiastically discussing relocation to Oklahoma City casts further doubt on his alleged “good-faith effort” to keep team in the Northwest.

30. MIAMI HEAT (14–66) (30): The Heat need to win one of their final two games to avoid breaking the franchise-worst mark. If not, Rory Sparrow, Kevin Edwards, and the rest of the 1988–89 expansion crew can break out the Champagne.

jhollinger@nysun.com


The New York Sun

© 2025 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  Create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use