Sadly — at least for those of us who love suspense — the National League Cy Young race doesn’t look as if it will be much of a race at all right now.

As of the beginning of his start last night, San Diego’s Jake Peavy led the league in ERA (2.10), strikeouts (206), and wins (16). Since there’s been an award to win, every pitcher who’s won the Triple Crown has won the Cy Young Award. Peavy isn’t just leading, but dominating in the more important of these categories. His ERA is half a run better than the next best in the league, and he’s the only man to have reached 200 strikeouts so far.

Peavy might not even need the Triple Crown to make his case. He started last night against Arizona (with whom his Padres were tied for the division lead) on three days’ rest, having volunteered to do so. His road ERA heading into the start was 1.22 (the best in baseball) and he leads in categories ranging from base runners per inning to quality start percentage. There are many Hall of Fame pitchers who never had a year nearly this good. Between his performance and his demonstrated mettle, the real question about Peavy isn’t whether he’s the leading candidate for the Cy Young Award: It’s whether he’s the leading candidate for the Most Valuable Player award.

Still, as anyone who pays attention to awards voting knows, being the most deserving candidate for an award only gets one so far. Two years ago, Minnesota’s Johan Santana led the league in strikeouts, and finished second in ERA by a hundredth of a run, and second in innings by five. He also led in park-adjusted ERA by a substantial margin. He was, by acclamation, the best pitcher in baseball by an even more substantial margin. Despite all this, he lost out in the Cy Young voting to Los Angeles’ Bartolo Colon, who had an ERA three-quarters of a run higher and pitched fewer innings. But was also the only man in the league to win 20.

This sort of thing happens all the time, which is half the reason why if I were to lay money on this year’s Cy Young race, I’d lay it on Arizona’s Brandon Webb (the other half of the reason is that Peavy is getting 3–2 odds in Las Vegas, while Webb is getting 2–1).

Think of it this way. Despite being the best pitcher and arguably the best player in the league, Peavy could still end the season with three big things working against him: He may not lead the league in wins, he may not win 20 games, and his team may not make the playoffs. If any one of these things happens, he’ll win the award. If none of them happens, Webb will likely win it.

Why? Awards voters are, en masse, demonstrably stupid. Just last year they voted Justin Morneau — at best the third-, possibly the fourth-best player on the Twins — the American League MVP.

If Webb’s Diamondbacks edge out the Padres in the playoff race, voters will note that he not only pitched his team past Peavy’s and into October, and is the defending Cy Young Award winner, but that he has a large edge on Peavy in innings pitched (19.3 as of the beginning of last night’s game) and that he pitched 42 straight scoreless innings in August. They may also note that Peavy works in a tremendous pitcher’s park, while Webb works in an excellent hitter’s park. This doesn’t make that much of a difference once you account for it precisely. But it could, when taken in as a sort of vague fact, impress the kind of voters who pull the lever for the league leader in runs batted in only because, well, he led the league in runs batted in.

That this sort of scenario is even possible is evidence of why the Cy Young Award shouldn’t be taken very seriously at all. Even if Webb, Los Angeles’ Brad Penny, or someone else waltzes off with Peavy’s hardware, he’ll have made his mark this year. The only pitchers in the last 40 years to have run up a better park-adjusted ERA than the one with which Peavy entered last night’s game are Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Kevin Brown, Dwight Gooden, Ron Guidry, and Randy Johnson: not bad company. He’s also been the best player on a team that’s shooting for its third straight division title, and could well end up with the best record in the league. As Johan Santana fans could tell you: When such a pitcher doesn’t get his rightful honors, it tells you more about the honors than the pitcher. The savvy gambler may lay his money on Webb, Penny, or the field against Webb. But the savvy baseball fan knows that Santana, for the first time in years, has some competition for the title of best pitcher alive. That beats a plaque.

tmarchman@nysun.com