Penn State Faces First Real Test This Weekend
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The Southeastern Conference, with three teams in the Associated Press top five and five in the top 15, has been the talk of the early college football season. Once again, the nation’s biggest game this weekend will be an SEC contest, as Alabama visits Georgia. But other leagues are prepared to grab a share of the spotlight, starting with the Big Ten. The misnamed conference begins league play tomorrow with a pair of important games, including the first real test for its 11th team, Penn State. Here’s a look at the key matchups this weekend.
No. 9 Wisconsin (3–0) at Michigan (1–2)
3:30 p.m., ABC
It has already been a long year for Michigan, which is off to a 1–2 start in the first year of a major rebuilding project under new coach Rich Rodriguez. This was likely to be a transition year no matter what, after the Wolverines lost four-year starters at quarterback, tailback, and left tackle, as well as their two leading receivers. The hiring of Rodriguez, and his switch from a pro-set offense to the spread-option, has accelerated the pace of change.
The Wolverines were badly outplayed in a narrow opening loss to Utah and were most recently routed by Notre Dame. Still, despite six Michigan turnovers, there were encouraging signs in that contest. Steven Threet took control of the quarterback position and outperformed Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen. Freshman tailback Sam McGuffie produced 178 yards of total offense and looks to be a perfect fit for Rodriguez’s scheme.
Wisconsin was thought to be one of the teams contending for the second spot in a Big Ten race that most had conceded to Ohio State before the season. But as the Buckeyes struggle, Wisconsin and Penn State suddenly look like legitimate threats in the conference. This is a typical Wisconsin team, with a strong run game, a game-manager at quarterback, and a solid, physical defense.
Expect to see plenty of big back P.J. Hill in this game. Michigan’s defensive line is the team’s strongest unit, but the linebackers and safeties are a real liability. If Hill can get to the second level, there should be plenty of yards to be found against a group that struggles with pursuit angles and tackling.
Whether Wisconsin is a contender for the Bowl Championship Series will be determined over the next three weeks, when the Badgers follow up the Michigan game with contests against Ohio State and Penn State.
No. 8 Alabama (4–0, 1–0 SEC) at No. 3 Georgia (4–0, 1–0)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
With all its high-ranked teams, the SEC can appear to be engaged in a round-robin elimination tournament for a spot in the national championship. The latest teams in the make-or-break spotlight: surprising Alabama, which appears to be a year ahead of schedule in Nick Saban’s second season, and Georgia, the preseason conference favorite.
Georgia has taken care of business in its 4–0 start, looking solid, if not always spectacular. The Bulldogs are coming off a rare nonconference road trip, as they easily dispatched Arizona State last week, and return home to face their stiffest test of the young season.
Alabama opened the nation’s eyes by dominating every facet of an opening-night win over Clemson. Its 4–0 start includes a 35-point win at Arkansas last week. The Tide may just have the defensive personnel to contend with Georgia’s balanced offense, with speed everywhere and a defensive line that is manhandling opponents. This contest could turn on the battle at the line when Georgia has the ball.
Alabama has been able to make its opponents one-dimensional by shutting down the run and forcing teams play catch-up, but will have to contend with perhaps the nation’s best back in sophomore Knowshon Moreno this week. As good as Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford is, if the Tide manages to put the game on his shoulders, it will be a major advantage for Alabama.
The big surprise has been the explosiveness of the Alabama offense under quarterback John Parker Wilson, who has avoided the costly mistakes that plagued him last year. If he can lead the Tide to a win, the schedule eases up to the point that Alabama should be 9–0 before it faces LSU — likely for the SEC West title.
Illinois (2–1) at No. 12 Penn State (3–0)
8 p.m., ABC
When Penn State quarterbacks coach Jay Paterno promised the Nittany Lions would run a “spread HD” offense this season, not everyone took him seriously. After all, the Penn State program is staid like no other in the country.
The “HD” stands for “highly diverse,” and after three games, the younger Paterno has been true to his word. The results have been spectacular, as Penn State has destroyed four straight overmatched foes by and average of 43 points a game — tops in the nation.
The fact that none of the four teams has shown so much as a pulse this season has clearly helped to pad that figure, and Penn State is taking a step up in competition this week against Illinois, which went to the Rose Bowl last year. Illinois is likewise explosive, managing to score 42 points in its only loss of the year, to no. 6 Missouri.
With Rashard Mendenhall in the NFL, Illinois has been moving the ball on the arm of quarterback Juice Williams (240 yards passing per game). Penn State could use the services of suspended defensive linemen Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma, who may play in this game, to pressure Williams in the pocket.
Penn State has moved to no. 12 in the AP poll largely by attrition, but beating Illinois by an impressive margin will serve notice about the Nittany Lions’ prospects for a BCS bid in 2008.
Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.