The ticker tape is still blowing around Chicago, and the Astros are still waking up with cold sweats. But with no live baseball to discuss anymore, everyone’s attention has turned to the front offices and the winter decision-making.

Asking “can they repeat?” in November is pretty ridiculous; a lot can and will happen between now and spring training. But it’s not too early to look at some preliminary free agent decisions that each league champion must make. Both the Astros and the White Sox have a number of players who could be playing elsewhere in 2006, and whether they stay in town could impact 2006 in some conspicuous ways.

Chicago and Houston each have four meaningful players headed for free agency, and we’ll use Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to evaluate them. VORP measures the number of runs a player is worth above what a freely available player at his position would produce in the same amount of playing time.

White Sox Key Free Agents

PLAYER POS. 2005 PAY 2005 VORP

P. Konerko 1B 8.75M 56.3

F. Thomas DH 8.00M 9.2

G. Blum IF 575K -6.7

C. Widger C 500K 1.4

GEOFF BLUM Blum’s ascension to World Series hero thanks to his gamewinning homer in the 14th inning of Game 3 made him look like a smart acquisition, but his career line of .251 AVG/.314 OBA/.391 SLG is approximately what you can expect out of most career Triple-A infielders. His -6.7 VORP means that he was actually worse than a freely available player. Half a million dollars should buy more than that.

CHRIS WIDGER This former Yankee hit .241/.292/.383 with the Sox and has the title of world champion to boost his value a bit,but Widger’s no different that at least 15 other catchers who spent 2005 in the minors. Retaining him is fine so long as it’s not for more than the league minimum; anything more would be a misallocation of resources that could be used to address other areas.

FRANK THOMAS The team already declined its option on DH Carl Everett, who hit only .251/.311/.435 in 2005. This opened the door for Thomas, who on Monday exercised his $10 million player option to remain with the club in 2006. The Sox now have until Friday to decide if they want to buy him out, meaning he’d be free to go elsewhere. Barring a miraculous rehab from the foot injury that cost him most of 2005,Thomas is no more than a DH. But for a team that finished ninth in runs in the AL,any offense will help, so Thomas should be retained.

PAUL KONERKO His October heroism will probably mean Konerko earns a lot of money on the open market, as there’s no shortage of teams in need of a power-hitting first baseman. Konerko is coming off two straight years of slugging over .530, though that number dropped to .492 when he wasn’t playing at homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago. He won’t retain his 2005 production should he call another park home next year.

But the real problem with Konerko, who will be 30 when spring training rolls around, is that his new contract will probably be for too many years. He’ll be rewarded for past accomplishments, but as he starts to decline, the winning bidder will watch as he gradually becomes more expensive and less productive.The Sox are hoping he’ll accept a hometown discount to keep the lineup mostly intact for next year.

Astros Key Free Agents

PLAYER POS. 2005 PAY 2005 VORP

R. Clemens SP 18 M 80.6

R. Springer RP 550K 2.1

B. Ausmus C 3M 12.0

O. Palmeiro OF 800K 10.5

BRAD AUSMUS Ausmus has a reputation for being a good handler of a pitching staff, but that ignores his track record of abysmal hitting. Ausmus was the 12th-most valuable catcher in the NL according to VORP, though that says more about the general lack of offense among NL catchers than it does about Ausmus.The Astros let him go once before, in 1998.They should do so again.

ORLANDO PALMEIRO Palmeiro has been a backup at all three outfield spots for a few years now, and has seen a lot of recent action as a pinch hitter. He has a good batting eye and generally sees a lot of pitches. He makes for a terrific fourth outfielder, and with no one in their system looking like a cheaper or better replacement, the Astros would be smart to re-sign him.

RUSS SPRINGER Springer turned in a solid year of relief for the Astros, playing a small but important role in their dominant bullpen. He’s exactly the sort of pitcher you sign on the cheap, squeeze for a few quality innings, and discard. His strikeout rate jumped in 2005 after dipping into barely acceptable territory from 2001-04. Not a good bet to repeat his 2006.

ROGER CLEMENS This is a unique case. Clemens is unlikely to take his services elsewhere in 2006; most expect him either to retire or re-sign with Houston. There are a few problems, though. For one, banking on a 44-year-old pitcher isn’t a sound strategy, no matter how often he’s surprised us in the last few years. Second, the Astros already have $64 million earmarked for just five players; re-signing Clemens would concentrate even more of the payroll on a small number of players, almost ensuring that depth will again be a weakness.

Ultimately, though, the Astros have little chance without him, even if he recreates just 75% of his historic 2005. When Clemens got hurt in the playoffs, the Astros showed they had no Plan B, and so crucial innings were given to unreliable young pitchers like Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez. They can’t let that happen again, and the thin free agent market for pitching won’t offer many external options.

The White Sox face the very real possibility of fielding a 2006 lineup that looks surprisingly similar to the 2005 edition, meaning Sox fans have to like their chances to battle it out again with Cleveland for the AL Central.

The outlook for the Astros is considerably less rosy, as they have significant work to do on both sides of the ball. At a “Thank You” rally in Houston, owner Drayton McLane asked for one more year to build a world championship team. If they’re faced with the unenviable task of replacing a Hall of Famecaliber pitcher, the Astros have their work cut out for them.

Mr. Erhardt is a contributor for Baseball Prospectus. For more stateof-the-art commentary and information, visit their Web site at www.baseballprospectus.com.